Breeders Cup 2022

General Info Notes Prior to BC: All Mile and a sixteenth races on dirt at Keeneland have a short stretch (to the “first wire” not actual finish line) and this makes closing from far back more difficult and favors tactical speed. JUVENILE & JUVENILE Fillies on Friday this distance. JOCKEYS – Saez, Gafflione, and Rosario (on limited starts) had strong Keeneland fall meets For the Euros… William Buick – 3 wins in 4 starts in 2021 Breeders Cup (Mile / Turf / Juv Turf) and 4 for 5 in USA stakes in 2022. James Doyle – Limited USA racing last decade. Only 13-1-0-2 $500k. Win 2019 Northern Dancer @ WO. Kieran Shoemark – Young former addict. The horses on MILE page are his biggest mounts (Pogo / Interloper). Not top tier. No USA experience? Ryan Moore – Decent but not great USA success lately. Last BC win 2017 Juv Turf. Cut below Buick, for sure Dettori – A bit cool recently in biggest USA races. Similar to Moore, clearly behind Buick. ………………………………………………………………… FRIDAY selections: JUV TURF SPRINT Just like the way USA Juvies struggle with straight course European races, the Euros have trouble running sprints with one sharp turn. I’m just drawing a line through all of them and letting those beat me. LOVE REIGNS looks like the logical favorite with Wesley Ward being the king of these Juv turf sprints and Irad in the saddle. He’ll likely stalk the speed in the 2nd flight and Irad will try to find an inside hole on the turn. One issue, though, is that this manuever is more difficult at Keeneland than at Saratoga and add to that the full field of 12. I will probably not bet this one for those reasons (and the aggressive betting by the public due to connections) but I would not be surprised if he wins. SPEED BOAT BEACH is my choice. Broke Del Mar’s 5&1/2 furlong track record on dirt in debut and overcame trouble to win stakes turf debut. Draws favorably outside a horse with gate speed that will want to come down from the 10 hole and should have room to run. Assuming that he has enough gate speed to be in front of Euro rivals to his outside (a fast gate horse for a Euro), then he should get the trip if he is good enough. I’m betting that he is and Baffert strikes first ...... JUV FILLIES CHOP CHOP broke unusually slow and made a long, visually impressive closing move to fall a nose short at the Keeneland prep (The Alcibiades). Maybe the best horse here? I’ll use the former in multi race bets, but will probably bet YOU’RE MY GIRL to win. Breeding suggests that she was compromised by the wet track in her last, and I expect Johnny V to sneak around the first turn in a good spot on the inside. Think this one has a good chance to turn the tables on likely favorite CHOCOLATE GELATO (Irad, Pletcher) at a price due to more favorable conditions and race set-up. ............ JUV FILLY TURF MEDITATE looks like the best hope of the Euros on Friday. Most class in field by a lot. If she can get the two turns comfortably then she is the most logical winner. Not sure whether I will bet her to win or instead choose … CAIRO CONSORT at a price. Feel like Joel may be able to flash some gate speed and sneak around on top in a race without a lot of speed. If so, she has a legit shot at 12-1 , I think. The 10/14 work on the polytrack at Woodbine was VERY fast. ......... JUVENILE Tough to know what to think about CAVE ROCK as he has never been in a real horse race. The American Pharoah at Del Mar was gifted to him as the other Baffert’s in the race were the main potential early speed challengers and they did not contest the lead and let him waltz around in moderate fractions. Of course, the three times he has run were very fast and a repeat of those should win here. While HURRICANE J almost certainly has to go from PP #1, CAVE ROCK should have now issue stalking outside that one if he doesn’t get around first, and passing him on the far turn. Of the rest, NATURAL TREASURE has the natural speed to be a problem for him, but my guess is that here will one again cede the lead to his Baffert stablemate and try to run him down late. That seems unlikely. LOST ARK is “better than you think.” Had a disaster trip in last that can be discounted. His prior 2 races were really good. I think he has an outside shot at a huge price and will ue him in doubles and other multi race wagering. As for betting the race itself, I would bet this race in the following way: For $20 (baseline) I’d use: $10 Exacta: CAVE ROCK – LOST ARK 50 cent tri: CAVE ROCK – ALL- LOST ARK $3 Tri: CAVE ROCK - NATIONAL TREASURE – LOST ARK $3 Tri: CAVE ROCK – FORTE – LOST ARK …………… JUVENILE TURF SILVER KNOTT is considered the best of the Euros and is the betting favorite in Europe, but has only earned $100k for his first 5 races (including 3 wins) and his last three races have been against six, three, and six horses. This does not sound like the kind of favorite I am looking for. The 2 year old turf races have been relatively weak in California this year (and usually) but I am going to take a shot on PACKS A WAHLOP. For one, his last race was over a second faster than the Juv Filly grass stakes on the same day and he won for fun. Looks like maybe a legit horse. If Mike Smith can break with the horse just to his outside and be first around inside, I like his chances from there.

Some storylines from a CRAZY! Kentucky Derby ...

Sometimes crazy things happen in the Kentucky Derby. Almost always the catalyst is a horse, or group of horses that go off in the early going at a suicidal pace. My housemate picked the early leader SUMMER IS TOMORROW based on the name and when I saw the unreasonably fast half-mile time as the horses neared the end of the backstretch I told her "Your horse is going to finish last."
I'd hinted at the possibility of a suicidal pace in my Kentucky Derby preview: "With plenty of early speed candidates in this field, the pace could get hot and there is the potential that the race "falls apart" and sets up for horses coming from way back." What does this "falling apart" look like? We see below the five quarter mile splits from a more "normally" run derby (2020 MEDINA SPIRIT) with the quarter mile times getting gradually slower, and the splits from Saturday's unusual Derby:
MEDINA SPIRIT - 2020 (23:09) (23:61) (24:51) (24:77) (25:01)
RICH STRIKE - 2022 (21:78) (23:58) (24:98) (26:62) (25:65)
Note the difference this year between the first half mile and the last half mile: 45:36 versus 52:27. If we use the standard 1/5 of a second = 1 length then that means that the last half was run almost 35 lengths slower than the first half! This is CRAZY!
There are two consequences of such a torrid pace at the Derby distance 1) The obvious one, anyone close to that pace is going to be seriously compromised in the latter stages of the race and 2) When horses start tiring badly (starting on the far turn in most cases, after the first 3 splits) seams open up briefly in the wall of horses in front of the closers and a jockey who hits one of these perfectly (usually near the rail) has a chance to pass a lot of horses in a flash, and get beyond the traffic quickly.
The Ride:
I'm sure that many of you have seen the aerial view of the last half mile or so of the race .... amazing!:
https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status/1523104042427334660?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1523104042427334660%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fawfulannouncing.com%2Fnbc%2Fnbc-kentucky-derby-rich-strike.html
A friend asked if this was the best ride that I've ever seen. No. I'd describe as a combination of extremely good fortune combined with excellent execution. Here Leon makes two important (but fairly easy) split second decisions 1) Generally, the most effective strategy for a jockey navigating through a big pack of tiring horses is to identify a (relatively) fast moving horse in front of him and follow in his wake. Towards the end of the turn, Jockey Leon identifies #18 Tawny Port (purple silks, yellow and black saddle cloth) and follows him through at the rail and later 2) With the leader on the turn, MESSIER, tiring badly on the rail in the stretch, there is little choice but to swing outside of him to get around. The execution of getting through that small hole is first rate work by both horse and rider, but made easier by the fact that RICH STRIKE was running so much faster than the tiring horses.
The Loser: Steven Asmussen (from the racing family of Asmussens) is the winning-est trainer in the history of horse racing (I had the coincidental good fortune of seeing him break the all-time record during my visit to Saratoga last summer). 9,731 wins ... but yet never a Kentucky Derby. This year he brought the race favorite EPICENTER who had done everything right in the prep races leading up to the Derby and in training over the Churchill Downs surface in the days leading up to the race. EPICENTER got what appeared to be a dream trip following in the wake of SUMMER IS TOMORROW in a comfortable place while saving ground near the rail. When he found a crack in the leading group and kicked for hime in the lead it seemed like he was home free. The final validation for Team Asmussen...but it was not to be on this unusual day.
The Winners: It can't be overstated how unusual this result was. 80-1 doesn't begin to cover it. Several acedemic papers have shown that horses over 50-1 as a group are massively overbet relative to their actual chances. I'd be curious to see how the AI from the biggest betting groups valued Rich Strike's chances. 1 in 400? More ridiculous still are the component parts:
RICH STRIKE's only win was against $30,000 maiden claimers. This is close to the bottom of the barrel at major tracks like Churchill Downs. In this race trainer Eric Reed and the Red Tr Racing Group paid the $30,000 claiming price and came home with RICH STRIKE. It's worth noting that the horse was taken from Calumet Farm which holds the record for having bred the most winners in the Kentucky Derby ... yet Calumet's last winner in The Derby was way back in 1991. Truth be told it can't be said that this claim cost them their first Derby in three decades as they NEVER would have even considered entering this horse given the perceived unlikelyhood of his winning.
Trainer ERIC REED is based at Balterra Park, a third rate track in Cincinnati. RICH STRIKE earned $1,800,000 for his win on Saturday. Over 40 years of training, Reed's second highest earner made $401,896 over her whole career. He's only had 3 additional horses that have made over $200,000 career. To put that in perspective, all of the winners of the five races that preceded the Derby on Saturday at Churchill earned at least $300,000 for that one race.
Jockey SONNY LEON also races at Belterra Park. Prior to the Derby he had NEVER won a graded stakes race. There are almost 400 graded stakes races run in the USA every year. He had won none of them. Ever.

TAIBA offers betting value in the 2022 Kentucky Derby

In short, making money as a horse bettor requires identifying candidates whose chances are undervalued by the betting public. In the 2022 Derby, I feel that TAIBA meets that criteria. Over the course of my betting career, "expert" handicappers have been fond of making rules which are form fit to prior runnings of the Derby to eliminate potential contenders. Foremost among these rules is the logical assumption that a horse needs the appropriate experience to handle the 20 horse field and the demanding 1 & 1/4 mile distance. But one of the best horse racing bets that I made in the last decade bucked that very rule. Until JUSTIFY ran away with the 2018 Derby and went on to become the only undefeated Triple Crown winner in history, no horse over the prior century had won the Derby without racing as a 2 year old and no horse had won the Derby with only 3 starts. But in this case JUSTIFY was simply the fastest horse in the race and his tactical early speed kept him out of the congestion of the main pack and he won easily. The profile of TAIBA is very similar to that of JUSTIFY: - An unusual combination of early tactical speed and (all indications suggest) the stamina to get 10f given his finish in the Santa Anita Derby and the fact that he is sired by 10f champion GUN RUNNER and out of a dam that closed her career with to 9f stakes victories. - Until very recently, TAIBA was trained by Bob Baffert (the most successful Derby trainer of all-time and the trainer of JUSTIFY) - Both shared the services of jockey "Money Mike" Smith. While Smith's skills are in decline, he is still one of the very best in riding horses with tactical speed in Classic distance races. - He comes into the race having run the fastest Kentucky Derby prep of all the the contenders. The "knocks" on TAIBA are legit: - Only 2 prep races prior to the Derby. Not only has no horse ever won the Derby with only 2 preps, I can't remember it ever having been attempted. - The workout pattern between the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby is light for a horse who is trying to train his way into shape (as opposed to race his way into shape) to run 10f - The horse has never been in any kind of traffic, and jockey Mike Smith will almost certainly find himself behind horses at some point breaking from the #12 post in a race with a fair amount of early speed. Also, TAIBA is NOT JUSTIFY ... his prep race was not as fast and both the draw and the race shape set up more favorably for JUSTIFY. But here's the thing, while JUSTIFY was a big favorite by race time (I got him as the 9/2 second choice in England in the week before the race), TAIBA is a ridiculously high 12-1 in the morning line. Simply put, if he runs back to his last race he will be very tough to beat. As such, his chances seem much better than 1 in 13 to me. I'll be betting him all the way down to 8-1. It's worth noting that the community of public "experts" is not supporting TAIBA choosing instead to cite the "rules" and take the glass half empty view. Excellent! This makes for good betting value. I'll bet extra if the track is "sloppy" as his gallop on a wet track at Churchill earlier this week impressed astute DRF clocker Mike Welsch and his pedigree suggests that the wet going will suit him well ................ Others of note: While both are nice horses, I am against the two favorites in the race based on price. ZANDON earned a solid figure when winning the Bluegrass with a late charge and has been training extremely well in the mornings leading up to the race. Supporters will suggest that this is a horse coming into his own at exactly the right time. My knocks are that a) Jockey Flevien Prat gave him one of the best rides in recent memory in the Bluegrass, timing his kick perfectly and finding his way into two small holes as soon as they opened up. Anything less than perfect might have meant defeat for ZANDON. Also, the horse's form was only so-so leading up to the Bluegrass. As a result, I'll let this one beat me as a favorite ... although I won't be surprised if he wins. Similarly, EPICENTER has had everything go his way recently with perfect trips in his last two races. I'm not enamored with anything that he has beat beyond ZANDON (who wasn't in top form when they met and at a less favorable distance). Also, trainer Steven Asmussen has won more races than any trainer in history ... but never the Derby. Another one I wouldn't be surprised to see win but that I will let beat me at a short price. Otherwise ... If this were a time trial, I would consider using CHARGE IT This one shares the trait of many of the offspring of champion sire TAPIT in that he has a very high "cruising speed" but the Florida Derby tape suggests that he takes a while to accelerate when asked and this is not good in a crowded field of 20 where he doesn't figure to be part of the early pace. Maybe better suited to the Belmont? Given the recent worldwide success of horses based in Japan, I think it is only a matter of time before they breakthrough with a big win in a US classic race. By all accounts, CROWN PRIDE has been training as well as any horse on the grounds. I wanted to use this one, but watching the tape of his 2022 races, I have a hard time getting aboard the bandwagon that he might be "the one" ...but he bears watching for sure. With plenty of early speed candidates in this field, the pace could get hot and there is the potential that the race "falls apart" and sets up for horses coming from way back. MO DONEGAL ran a solid figure last time and has Irad Ortiz ... the perfect jockey to take up the Calvin Borel rail skimming style and come from way back to win. Add to this the winners of The Wood Memorial have performed poorly over the last 3 decades. Another one I wanted to use ... I just don't think he is quite good enough, and seems like an underlay at a price similar to TAIBA I'll kick myself if this one wins, though. Good luck! "The Clock"

Another important Indicator suggesting that the Patriots will return to prominence in 2021

I just checked the 2021 Spotrac table for the Patriots in order to see if they potentially have room for Julio Jones:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/2021/

This is a HUGE revelation.  The Pats have moved a massive amount of salary cap load out of this year and into the future.   If we just look at the big ticket free agents that they signed

PLAYER          AVG salary (contract)    CAP HIT 2021

Judon                $13.63M                      $6.32M

Henry                $12.5M                        $6.82M

Smith                $12.5M                        $5.63

Aghalor             $11.0M                        $7.0M

While it is true that pushing cap hits into future years is common practice in the NFL ...I have never seen anything like this from the Pats before.   In the Belichick era, they have always been careful not to sacrifice the future in pursuit of the present.  This shift of Cap burden into the future indicates to me (listed in importance of signal derived from this):

1) The Pats are in "win NOW!" mode ...like maybe Bill is on the way out in the near future and they are taking one or two more big swings before taking the (salary cap) medicine 3 or 4 years down the road at the back end of these contracts.

2) The Pats are trading for Julio Jones.  They have cleared the room.  He is a perfect fit in every possible way.  They will probably front load his money as well and just take on all of the fallout with the rest of it (in 2023 or 2024).

Prediction:  The Julio Jones trade will be announced after June 1st when the Cap hit drops for the Falcons.

Analysis:  After the Patriots acquire Jones, they will have arguably the best non-QB roster in the NFL (although the Cleveland Browns might have something to say about that. On paper, the defensive personnel compares favorably with the 2019 version (which was the best in football for the 1st half of the season).   The OL, RB and pass catching groups (including TEs) all project as top 10 units if you add Julio Jones to the mix.  The special teams should continue to be among the best in the NFL.  An then you have the GOAT as the ringleader.  Immediate contenders, I think.  If Cam's recent mechanical adjustments can bring him back near his peak form, what out! 

The End of the New England Patriots Dynasty and Why Tom Brady is Headed to Vegas

The End of the New England Patriots Dynasty and Why Tom Brady is Head to Vegas

I am a diehard Patriots Fan, and as much as it pains me to admit it, I think the run is over.  Unlike others who share this view, my opinion is not dependent on the assumption that Tom Brady is also finished.  True 2019 wasn’t his best year, but I wouldn’t put it past him to rebound in 2020 and have another Pro Bowl campaign at age 43.

The issue is that around him, Rome is burning, and here are the causes:

1)     The 2017 draft  - The 4^th year players are often the most important on an NFL roster because they generally offer the most value.   They are seasoned veterans but still playing on rookie contracts.  Generally some of the best contracts, from a team perspective, are those of 4^th year players  (like Joe Thuney’s  $2,218,357 for 2019 arguably their best value of 2019).  What do the Patriots have left from this draft  ..rotational D-lineman Deatrich Wise and potential 2020 cut Derek Rivers.   That’s it!  

2)      The relative underperformance of the 2018 and 2019 draft classes 2018 originally seemed like a bumper crop.  In addition to Wynn and Michel in the first round, Ja’Whaun Bentley looked like a future Pro Bowler when he went down in the third game of his rookie year.   JC Jackson was a home run as an undrafted free agent, and there was optimism regarding some of their other picks especially Duke Dawson, Keoin Crossen, and Braxton Berrios.   However, none of that trio is still with the team.  Bentley was a solid contributor, but seemed to regress from his stellar rookie campaign, finding the starting line-up only twice in 2019 (although the Patriots had one of the best linebacking groups in the NFL).  Michel failed to develop as a pass catching threat and looks like a draft reach in retrospect.  It’s not all bad with this group.  Isaiah Wynn looked very solid at LT when healthy and has to be considered a draft hit.  Jackson has been a solid starting corner and a first rate find, and I still believe in Bentley.  However, this didn’t pan out to be cornerstone class that the Patriots needed after the 2017 whiff.

Similarly, at one point I thought the 2019 class might turn out to be something special, but top pick N’Keal Harry spent the beginning of the year on IR, and upon return looked more like someone just learning to play receiver than the solid route runner that he was on his Arizona State game tape.  He also had problems with drops.   They moved up to 11 spots (at the cost of the 101^st pick) to pick Joejaun Williams who failed to make an impact at CB.   Damien Harris hardly found the field at all.  LT prospect Yodny Cajuste was on IR as was OG Hjalte Froholdt. 

I think the jury is still out on the 2019 class, and feel they could get a big contribution from this group …which they will desperately need if they are going to be contenders in 2020.  DE Chase Winovich was an obvious draft hit and should continue to be a valued contributor.  DT Byron Cowart showed flashes of his younger self and figures in the forward looking rotation.   Harry looked dangerous in the open field, looks like a potential match-up nightmare in the red zone, and could develop into one of the best run blocking WRs in the NFL.  Maybe coach Scar can work some magic with the o-lineman.

3)      Many of their best contracts are coming off the books (2019 cap hit below):

Joe Thuney         $2,218,357

Jamie Collins      $3,000,000

Kyle Van Noy     $6.260,418

Tom Brady          $21,500,000

Danny Shelton   $1,030,000

The top 4 cornerstone guys are looking at raises.  Shelton was also a very effective run stuffer on a very cheap deal.   Thuney and Brady could be seeing a bump of as much as $10 million / year.   Unfortunately, they were up against the Cap this year and there are no bad contracts coming off of the books that can make up the differences, or obvious way to make significant savings through cuts.   Also Stephon Gilmore’s cap hit will increase by $10 million in 2020!

The result of all of this could be significant subtraction from free agency.   Thuney leaving seems like a foregone conclusion (and he was the anchor of their line in 2019, and the iron man of the group for all four years with the Pats).  They will almost certainly lose one at least of Collins and Van Noy.  Elandon Roberts  was also a useful two way contributor this year and is also probably gone as he will also command a raise from his $2 million in 2019.

The sad reality is that after massive losses in 2019 free agency including foundational pieces Trent Brown and Trey Flowers, and valuable contributors Chris Hogan (although that wasn’t about $), Malcolm Brown,  Cordarrelle Patterson (could have used him in the return game) and LaAdrian Waddle (and him for tackle depth),  they are looking at a 2^nd straight year of a significant outflow of talent via free agency due to budgetary constraints.

So what this means is that when you add up the 2019 and 2020 free agent net departures and the retirement of Gronk, the Pats have lost a ton of veteran talent over two years.  Unfortunately, those holes haven’t been filled by a commensurate in-flow of young players via the draft.   The Patriots are progressively getting worse from a talent standpoint.

The last negative factor is that the Patriots don’t have a lot of good veteran contracts left on the books.  Gilmore's cap hit in 2019 was a steal, but his 2020 # is more in-line with fair value.  Jonathan Jones same, as his cap # goes up more than $3 million.  Sonu’s rises by almost $3 million to $6.5 million (ugh).   Look here at their present situation and try to find the stand out bargains: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/.  They are few and far between.

Contrast the Patriots situation to that of the Buffalo Bills:

There wasn’t so much difference between the Pats and the Bills this year.  Both had similar records.  Both did well against below average teams and struggled against the best teams.  Both games could have gone either way.

Unfortunately, the Bills and Pats are trending in opposite directions.  The Pats are the oldest team in football and have one of the weaker young cores in the NFL as well as a bad cap situation headed into free agency.  Buffalo has an abundance of young talent (Dawkins, White, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, and Singletary among others), and an extremely strong cap position as of now. 

A couple of interesting facts (from Spotrac data):

1)      According to Spotrac, the difference between the market value of Dawkins, White, Edmunds, and Allen versus their actual 2020 salaries …. $58,332,028 undervalued.

2)      Patriots are $42 million under the cap, but this is with Brady at $13.5 million, less than half his market value and all of the following unaccounted for (Devin McCourty, Thuney, Collins, Van Noy, Shelton,  Dorsett, Ebner, Slater, Karras, Roberts, Butler, and others.  YIKES!)   Bills are more than $89 million under the cap.  They are losing solid starters in Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson (both valued around $8 million year by Spotrac but maybe in line for a little more) but could easily sign all of their free agents and still have a ton of cap room if they chose to go this route.  

So suffice to say, the talent needle is pointing down for the Patriots and up for the Bills … which all leads to my unfortunate speculation:

Tom Brady is headed to Vegas, baby

I, too, was temporarily pleased by all of the gushing about his wanting to return.  However, Brady being a smart guy, one has to assume that he also knows the facts above and has to think that returning in 2020 means that he would potentially be going down with the ship.  So many things would have to go right to win another ring in Foxboro.  As a result, my new take is that his present media position is posturing so that when the Patriots lowball him (again), then he has a dignified out …I wanted to remain a Patriot, but I need to do what’s best for my family and don’t think it is fair to be underpaid yet again

If there were a potentially better situation, with a team that desperately wants him, in a market that might be desirable, doesn’t it make sense to try to win ring #7 without Bill and make an argument for USA best team sports athlete ever?

Looking over the possibilities, there is one that seems to check all the boxes.  Not only does it make sense for Tom to consider a two year run, this would also be perfect timing for the team in question.

THE VEGAS RAIDERS

Here is why it makes sense for Brady:

1)      He joins Gruden who is a proven winner

2)      They are another team, like the Bills with the needle clearly pointing upward.  They had a potentially huge 2019 draft. They had 3 #1s and got a solid yield there in addition to several others in later rounds that seem like they will be good as well as some additional useful contributors.  Ferrell wasn’t as good as they expected, but Jacobs made up for that ,and Abram looks like a Raiders type enforcer at safety if he can curb his reckless play and stay on the field.  Crosby looks like a steal in the 4^th round.    Mullen was probably the best player in the secondary by year end. Hunter Renfroe will do Hunter Renfroe things and it seems like that can be somewhat effective in the NFL as well (especially with Brady).  TE Moreau and FB Ingold both found contributing roles as did (cheap) punter Cole.

3)      They have a lot of draft capital in 2020 as well including 2 #1s and 5 picks in the top 3 rounds.

4)      If massive left tackle Kolton Miller (pick #15 overall in 2018 draft) continues his upward trajectory then they have the makings for a first rate O-line.  Old friend Trent Brown had another good year.  Incognito and Hudson were solid in the middle.   If they cut Gabe Jackson and his $9.6 million cap hit (none of it dead cap) then they could add someone like Thuney for just a bit more money and potentially have an O-line with no clear weak spot.  Add  break outs TE Waller and RB Jabobs and there is reason for excitement with the offense.  Sure they desperately need a #1 receiver, but they will be in a financial position to go after one (see below).

5)      The Raiders are almost $63 million under the Cap (not including $21.5 million to QB Derek Carr).  Worst scenario is they take $5 million in dead cap and move on.  Best scenario is they could find a buyer and get out of his contract entirely.  That money could go towards Brady.    The Raiders have no big impact free agents that they can’t afford to lose and should be in a good cash position even if they return some of their top priorities (Good / Jordan / Worley) and upgrade Carr with Brady.  Some of this money could go towards trying to make a splash with a potential #1 receiver (AJ Green, perhaps?).  With the offense taken care of, they could go defense / defense (edge guy / LB?)  with their #1 picks and supplement their core of up-and-comers on that side of the ball

 Here’s why it makes sense for BOTH parties:

-        

  The Raiders could offer Brady a two year deal with a window to take over a team on the rise that could have an immediate future.  If the experiment fails, then they will still have another year when their 2019 draft class hits their 4^th year together to try to win post Brady AND 3 of those guys are #1s so they can pick up the 5^th year option to play that year with the 2 #1s that will be drafted this year.

Anyway, if you rate this objectively (without sentiment) I think this is what make sense for Brady and it certainly makes sense for the Raiders …they seem like they would have a much better chance to win immediately with Brady than with Carr and the extra $ isn’t prohibitive.

ADDENDUM:
So the question came up after Brady moved out of his house and Giselle cleaned out her suite (which is not so significant, I think.  Given the uncertainty it makes sense). ...what would you do if you were the Pats GM and faced with the present scenario?  Adding the "In Bill we trust" disclaimer, here are my thoughts:

If Tom stays, obviously the Pats will be in "win now" mode.   They will know before the beginning of Free Agency whether he is staying or not ...because if he doesn't sign by then, they will be forced to apply his current $13.5 million "dead cap" to 2020 ...and clearly Brady doesn't want to do that if he is coming back to win.

If he doesn't sign, they'd be looking at (in best case scenario) roughly "running back" the 2019 effort (using present additional cap to sign most of the key guys, but now with Stidham at the helm (and hopefully some more help from the young guys).  Can that make them Super Bowl contenders?  Well, in a conference with Mahomes and Jackson, the Pats would basically need to send out a team highly superior at the non QB positions to make up for the shortfall versus the primary competition.   This seems unlikely given what is mentioned above.

If he does leave, my move would be to focus efforts on maximizing 2021 and beyond (giving Stidham a year to improve and after the 2017 class is off the books).  Their best hope is that the 2018-2020 draft classes form a solid young base (they need to improve) while catching guys like Gilmore / Shaq on the back end of their deals.  In this case I'd be looking to extend Jackson (off contract 2021) at team friendly rate.  Same for Andrews if they think they have solved his lung issue.   James White, as well.

Maybe this approach also favors signing the youngest guys who will be in their primes in the next 3 years over signing older guys (Shelton and Thuney check this box).

If they go into "selling" mode ...looking to dump older vets for draft picks, there aren't many options.  You'd need a Godfather offer to consider trading Gilmore (your only stand-out performer in 2019), and the "expiring contracts" (2021) of Jason McCourty and Sonu don't seem like assets that would fetch much because neither of those contracts seems to offer huge value to the team that holds them.

Second Revision (2/21/2020):

With the rumor mill heating up about a potential "Diggs to the Patriots" trade ... New England doesn't seem like a logical landing spot for him in my eyes given that I think the days of the Pats making the Super Bowl by "slinging the ball all over the yard" are in the rear view mirror.  Even after adding Diggs, the Pats still wouldn't have a sure-fire, match-up nightmare like Hill or Kelce (or Antonio Brown) or a QB as dynamic as Mahomes.  It's difficult to see them winning a shoot-out versus KC going forward with that projected personnel.  In addition, re-signing Brady and adding Diggs would stress their Cap situation to the point where they wouldn't be able to address the bigger concern ... replacing Gronk (or, fingers crossed, a Gronk comeback).  The optimal path, given the present roster seems to be the one that led to the 2019 Super Bowl victory:  Run based packages (12, and 21 & 22 with a FB) on 1st and 10 in order to utilize a line that has the potential to be a top 5 running unit.  Cannon and Wynn are both tackles suited to run blocking, and Shaq Mason's strength seems to be as a pulling guard leading around tackle.  An obvious hole in their weaponry last year was an in-line tight end to seal the pursuit, and then get out in space off play action.  Again Gronk would be the top choice for this.  OJ Howard also seems like someone who could fit this role and might be a trade candidate given that he was out of sorts last year in Bruce Arians' vertical passing game, and not the primary pass catching TE.  These "two way" TEs are a rare commodity, though, and are rarely available.  

Obviously, I am bear-ish on the Pats prospects in 2020, but if I were to construct a hypothetical situation where they are in the mix this season it would look something like this:

Bill's trip to Gronk-Fest was a Brady / Bill recruiting maneuver and the pair are able to win him back for one more go with the pitch "We are going for #7 and WE NEED YOU, MAN to make this happen."   With Gronk, a 2nd Allen-type TE (maybe LaCosse ..he showed signs of being a decent h-back style blocker), and Develin back in the fold, they could get back to the business of running the ball and throwing off play action ...maybe more effectively since Wynn is a better run blocker than Brown at LT.  Hopefully, Harris and Burkhead could absorb some of the "smashmouth" carries and keep Michel relatively fresh for the stretch run (like 2019) and the offense would be back in business overall.  (Worth noting:  N'Keal Harry looked lost in the Pats offense in year one.  The confident and polished route-runner from the Arizona State game tape was tentative and often out of place.  The challenge with the Pats offense is not only getting open, but arriving at an exact location, in an exact way, at an exact time so that Brady can deliver the ball to a "safe" place.  I remain confident that Harry, who seems to have a good attitude and work ethic, will eventually figure things out and be a significant contributor as his confidence, and connection with Brady, improve with more reps)

Unfortunately, they are almost certainly going to lose Thuney, and his consistent effectiveness at LG, and probably Ted Karras, as well ...two starters from 2019.   We can hope for an Andrews return at center (a stud, and QB of the O-line type, when healthy),   Also, the Pats obviously saw something in Yodny Cajuste given his 3rd round selection despite an existing Quad injury (although he might profile better as a "swing tackle" for depth in his "redshirt rookie" year than an inside solution given his body type), and Hjalte Froholdt may be also be useful as an interior piece.  Regardless there is work to be done here (and no Coach Scar to lead the process).

All-in-all though, if Gronk returns and can stay healthy, there is at least some hope that the Pats offense can return to something resembling the Super Bowl version.

On defense, there will be issues as well.  Van Noy is also almost certainly gone. Note: Miami has infinite Cap Space and the last time he and Brian Flores were seen together, during the stretch run of the SB year, Van Noy was tearing through opposing defenses as effectively as anyone not named Aaron Donald.  He seems like a great anchor for what Flores is trying to create in Miami (and if not Miami, one would have to figure that there will also be a big bid from Matt Patricia and Detroit as well as other teams looking to bottle some of the Patriots magic).  Danny Shelton should also be out the Patriots price range, although run stuffers are easier to find than effective edge pieces and Byron Cowart showed some signs in his rookie campaign.  Finding a suitable mate for Lawrence Guy in the base defense seems doable.

Theoretically, the guy they absolutely, positively can't lose is Devin McCourty   In the Patriots "bend but don't break" style defense, a solid tackling QB of the secondary is 100% essential.  One thing that makes the Pats secondary elite is that coverage breakdowns are rare ...McCourty seems like the most important cog in the wheel in this regard.   Intuitively, McCourty is a "Patriots lifer" type and will be flexible in his demands so that he can retire in Foxboro ...so I think he will be back because it is in everyone's best interest.   Ditto for Jamie Collins who hopefully believes that "the grass is greener" in Foxboro after his ugly stint in Cleveland and subsequent resurgence in 2019 upon returning to the Pats.

They'll also probably lose some special teams specialists for Cap reasons as well.  Matthew Stater had another banner season and figures to be back, but Nate Ebner isn't likely to get another $2m+/year contract and could be gone.  We'll see regarding Justin Bethel.   Ditto for Gostkowski.  Is the present version of him (aging, post surgery, and clearly past his prime) worth a big cap hit?  Maybe this is a place they address in the draft and try to save some $.

SO THE OVERALL PLAN:

Get Gronk and Brady back, and find an effective H-back type TE (maybe LaCosse is an existing solution)

Let Thuney walk and patch his hole (and maybe that of Karras as well) with a combination of 2019 draftees and cheap veteran options.

Let Van Noy go and increase the playing time of Ja'Whaun Bentley (who hopefully returns to his high 2018 level pre-injury) and Chase Winovitch.

Let Shelton go and piece together a solution with Cowart and cheap vet options.

Shave some cap on Special Teams

This team, on paper, offers me at least a ray of hope for one last go.  Figure they'll also be targeting more TE help, a safety to eventually replace the 3 aging vets, and an interior lineman to make up for the Thuney departure. 



 



 
   

Takeaways from NFL 2019 Week 1

Due to the amazing feature in NFL Gamepass that let's you watch "compressed" games in 35 or 40 minutes, I was able to watch all of Sunday's action in less than the time that it would take to watch the two Sunday telecasts with commercials, reviews, and breaks between plays.  Not sure that I can ever go back to spending 3 hours+ watching a game ..unless it's the Patriots in the play-offs and I want to feel the camaraderie of real-time viewing with friends.  Anyway here are some observations from yesterday:

It IS time to panic in Cleveland:  Generally, getting blown out in an early season game is not as bad as it seems at the time (see "on to Cincinnati") but this game had an ominous vibe to it.   Certain organizations (like the Pats and Spurs) have demonstrated that setting the right organizational tone, and having super competent guys running the ship, is almost essential for any kind of prolonged success ...especially in the NFL when it "takes a village" as opposed to a couple of stars that dominate (like the NBA).  One had to question the move of The Browns promoting Freddie Kitchens to the role of head coach despite almost no relevant experience (he'd never been a head coach at any level or an NFL coordinator).  Naming a guy head coach because your outspoken and temperamental QB thinks its a good idea could be seen by detractors as "letting the inmates run the asylum"  If you are a Browns fan, yesterday is your worst nightmare ,,, one of the most undisciplined performances seen in the NFL in a long time with ridiculous unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and a total of 18 penalties for 182 yards ...YIKES!  Add in the fact that the O-line looked very shaky (who thought the Ziegler trade was a good idea with a short QB that needs protection up the middle?) and the Browns had to sell out to stop the run on "d" and thus exposed themselves to big plays through the air with man coverage and no safety help at all (from Marcus Mariota, nonetheless) and one could conclude that this all spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E.  We''ll see.  At the very least, the # of Browns Fans booking Super Bowl trips is plummeting.

The running game is alive and well in the NFL:  What do all of the teams that had surprisingly effective offensive performances have in common?  They all have extremely effective running games (at least as of now).  Both in the aforementioned case of the Titans versus the Browns and the Ravens dismantling of the Dolphins (and the "coming out party" of one Lamar Jackson) the threat of the running game caused the opposing defense to expose themselves to one-on-one matchups with no safety help and easy reads / throws and catches.  Jackson and Mariota may not be able to pick apart complicated zone packages, but give a guy one-on-ones in space with time to throw and almost any NFL QB will prosper.  Of course, Jackson did even better than that and was deadly accurate with his throws.  Marquise Brown looked like the star that he was at Oklahoma.  The Ravens suddenly look dangerous (although they did beat a team that would be lucky to win 3 games this year ..we'll see what happens against a better opponent.

Meanwhile ...in Minnesota they didn't even bother with the passing part of it,  It has been the Stephanski / Zimmer plan all along to combine a stingy "d" with an effective running game (with some Cousins play action sprinkled in), and after importing some help on the OL (including #1 pick Garrett Bradbury), enjoying relative health on the OL in addition to a healthy Delvin Cook ..the blueprint now looks pretty formidable.  Rookie Alexander Mattison also looks like an effective option to spell Cook and keep him fresh.  Don't sleep on the Vikings!

The Patriots are scary good  Actually, this is no surprise to me.  I've been telling anyone who would listen that this rookie class is the best of the Belichick era and the defense looked very physical and dominant in the pre-season.  Et voila!  The utter destruction of a Steelers team that could still win the AFC Central.  The Antonio Brown gamble becomes even more significant now that it has been firmly established that The Pats were the team to beat without him.  The only danger (other than an AB84 toxic meltdown) is that The Pats enjoyed an almost injury free 2nd half of last season.  This year they are already down 2 starters on the one part of their team with limited depth ..the O-Line.  It has been demonstrated time and again that the way to beat the Patriots is to force Brady "off the spot" with a conventional pass rush and make him uncomfortable.  They may be one Isaiah Wynn injury away from a full blown OL crisis.

Jimmy G's enshrinement in Canton remains on hold:  Another shaky day from the once heir apparent, and suddenly the fortunes of the 49ers (with their improved defense) are being held hostage by his relative incompetence.  Can he revert to his form of 2017 or is the beginning of the Nick Mullens era closer than we think?  Stay tuned.

No resolution to the Josh Allen enigma:   Is Josh Allen the "glass half empty" guy would was inaccurate in college and at times seems like he couldn't the broadside of a barn (see 1st half versus Jets) or the "glass half full" guy, a natural leader in a proto-typical NFL body (including arm) who is destined to be a star once he improves his accuracy?  Not sure ..although if forced to answer that question I'd probably choose the former ...it's not often that an inaccurate QB suddenly becomes accurate.  Anyway, great comeback engineered by him yesterday (albeit against a hyper-conservative Jets offensive plan that almost completely ignored the space more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage).  The Bills are an interesting team.  Stout D and an emerging running game with a promising young back (for the love of God ..someone please tell Shawn McDermott & company that Frank Gore is 10 years past his prime).  If Allen can hold it together, a wild card berth is not out of the question ..but then again, the "glass half empty" Josh Allen could throw them out of any chance of a winning season.

Shady McCoy looked relevant again ..... nice to see

The Jameis Winston / Bruce Arians pairing off to an ugly start:  Some are calling for the heads of both Winston and Arians after Week One.  Here is my take on the whole thing ... there is no denying the trend that play-action is the solution for many QBs who cannot thrive in an offense without a running game.  There are so many QBs that are clearly better when presenting the dual threat of run / pass (Mariota, Jackson, Cousins, Goff quickly come to mind).  Bruce Arians has made a career of building offenses around a running game and a complimentary vertical passing game off of play action.  I guess the thinking in TB was that since Winston has decent stats on downfield throws, putting him in the Arians system might resurrect his career.  However, I'm not buying it.  TB tried this yesterday (run on running downs and throw off play action ..except there are two big issues with this 1) Tampa had one of the worst running games in the NFL last year.  Granted, it was slightly better than that yesterday (and the first signs of the USC version of Ronald Jones were encouraging), but I have a tough time believing that there is much hope of the running game being a strength.  As a result, they were left yesterday (especially with the addition of penalties) in a bunch of difficult down and distance situations ..and those didn't turn out well generally. 2) Winston doesn't seem like he will ever be effective taking snaps under center and then standing in the pocket and making traditional reads.  He just doesn't seem comfortable or able to deliver the ball on time to the right place.  I feel like putting him in this system is like putting a square peg in a round hole.  It will be interesting to see if Arians ever reverts to the wide open, shotgun based approach from last year where Winston had some success (although it was a mixed bag ..he still turned the ball over a lot).   He actually made some good throws yesterday on the move and from the gun ..but the disastrous interceptions are what everyone is focusing on.  One of them was OJ Howard's fault ...another player that seems ill suited to a conventional approach... and the 2nd was a product of botched timing between Winston and Barber that lead to an easy Richard Sherman pick 6.  The last one that broke the backs of TB ...that summarized everything that is discouraging about Winston in one play.  Anyway, the point being ..Bruce, loosen up.  Let him sling the ball around one last time, let the playmakers run around in space, help him to see the field better ...if (when?) he fails, at least it will be on his own terms.

The 2019 Kentucky Derby is wide open

(Disclaimer: I don't have much to say about this particular Derby.  If I didn't already have a betting interest, then I would be betting very small, if at all.  However, rather than continue to answer individual inquiries about what I like, it seemed more efficient to lay out my thought here).

Regarding my own interests, I bet ROADSTER in the future book at what I considered to be a good price at the time ...details here:  https://mindfullydiscontent.blogspot.com/2019/04/roadster-worth-flier-in-kentucky-derby.html.

That aside, here is what I think of the race as it presents itself on Friday:

The 2019 Kentucky Derby is wide open.  There is no Big Brown or American Pharoah or Justify that clearly seems like the horse to beat.  The top contenders are all very close in terms of speed figures and resumes.  One could argue that Omaha Beach was clearly best, but since the Morning Line favorite was scratched earlier this week there is no longer a clear cut favorite.  However, the consensus opinion is that there are 5 who are a cut above the rest.  My thoughts on these:

MAXIMUM SECURITY has been the fastest in the preps leading up to the Derby in that he comes in off an easy 4 length victory in The Florida Derby which has recently been, along with the Santa Anita Derby, the prep that has yielded the most Derby winners.  In summary, I am against him for the following reasons 1) His Florida Derby was the product of a bizarre race shape when jockey Luis Saez was able to come down from the outside on the other early speed threats and force them to take back into the first turn, and then he slowed the race to a relative crawl down the backstretch.  The horses coming from the back never had a chance due to the unusually slow early fractions  2) The Florida Derby happened in the middle of a CRAZY hot streak by trainer Jason Servis at Gulfstream Park where he won with more than 40% of the horses that he saddled.  Amazing.  One of the biggest meets in memory for a trainer at a major track.  I'm thinking MAXIMUM SECURITY's performance at Gulfstream was aided by this.  3) My gut tells me that he is not suited to the demanding 1&1/4 mile distance of the Derby...although the jury is still out on his sire New Year's Day.  There are reasons to bet this one, but I would let him beat me at single digit odds.

IMPROBABLE (one of three Baffert trained horse of these top five) has been fast and was only beaten a length by the aforementioned OMAHA BEACH.  He has the advantage of a first rate mud pedigree, and a huge race over the track on the Breeders Cup undercard last fall. He could be the favorite, especially if it rains.   I'm against this one as well because 1) His pedigree on the sire side is definitely not suited to the distance 2) I don't like his temperament....he is very unruly.  He figures to be sitting behind MAXIMUM SECURITY and WAR OF WILL in the early going on the inside and I don't trust in his ability to settle calmly and make one big run to catch the leaders in a big field and with 100,000+ bourbon crazed patrons on either side of him.  He has had clear aim on the leaders in his preps and will have to find a good trip here to have a chance.  Pass.

TACITUS is one of the ones that figures.  Huge race in the Wood after getting slammed into the first turn.  Has the look of one who wants to go long.  Post outside the primary speed looks decent.  Has to be strongly considered.  If I were betting, I might use this one.
..........................

Regarding the other two, it is interesting to consider the projected race shape now that Omaha Beach is out.  It is from this that I would probably form my final opinion.

Both #1 WAR OF WILL and #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY seem like they will be intent to be on the pace.  #2 TAX figures to be forwardly placed.  I'm not sure that #4 Gray Magician has any other option and could be fast enough to lead if he is pushed early ..although that hasn't been the recent strategy with this one.  Anyway, from MAXIMUM SECURITY in, there will be a scramble for early position.

However from #8 TACITUS out to #18 LONG RANGE TODDY there doesn't seem to be anyone who is a strong candidate for the leading group (with the 6 from TACITUS out to #15 MASTER FENCER lacking early speed)

As a result there should be a pocket of space between the inside horses and #19 SPINOFF who could theoretically make a run at the lead and #21 BODEXPRESS who will almost surely make a run at the lead.

So that leaves some room for #15 GAME WINNER and #16 ROADSTER to possibly find a clean trip sitting in the pocket between the two groups of early speed horses and one of them could end up in perfect striking position headed down the backstretch

My top two choices are the ones who battled in the Santa Anita Derby and finished within a half length of each other (both come from the Baffert barn, winner of 2 Triple Crowns in the last 5 years).

While GAME WINNER was defeated that day, he seems like the most logical winner tomorrow (It's funny that I would say this, as I'd always planned to stand against this horse as a 3 year old).  Here are the reasons:  1) He had a huge win over the track in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (and was thus crowned 2 year old champ) 2) He has been aiming for this race all season and may have a performance pattern that is set to top in this race.  3) If it rains, he has an ideal mud pedigree on both sides.  I don't love this one, and wouldn't be excited to bet him as favorite, but objectively he has the best chance.

Obviously ROADSTER is my bet (from 20-1 in early April).  My case for him in the Santa Anita Derby is made in the link at the top of the page, and on that day he beat a heavily favored GAME WINNER.  He sure seems fast enough to win (he beat the choice last out) but the primary negatives are:

1) He has had less than the ideal amount of preparation for this race.  JUSTIFY bucked this trend last year but he is what Baffert called "a superior racehorse" ...ROADSTER is not in his category (as of yet).

2) The horse is small ..I'm not sure how he will feel in a 19 horse field with bumping and traffic.  The post draw (and potential space as explained above) seems helpful ..but we'll see if that translates to a clean trip.

3) Unlike some others here, he is unproven in the mud (has never raced on off track).  His sire side pedigree is decent for this but still a question.

I think he has a solid chance ..but probably not the best chance.  He is currently 10-1 which seems much too high ...and is a definite play at 8-1 or higher.  If he gets down near his morning line of 6-1, then there is a decision to be made.

For those searching to "get rich quick" my favorite longshot is #1 WAR OF WILL.  He got a big break when the field was narrowed to 19 by the two scratches, and all of the horses inside the scratches moved over one gate position.  He is now breaking out of the #2 post and not the dreaded #1 (which creates a tough angle to actually get on to the track in the early going).  If you toss his horrible Louisiana Derby there is some stuff to like including:

1) A solid win over the track 2) The pedigree to run all day 3) A solid mud line from the Danzig side (although his sire himself has not been exceptional in his area early in his career) 4) "The Calvin Borel factor."  Calvin was famous for riding the path right up against the rail and there are those who swear that that path, for the first 4 feet or so, is the best place to be on a wet Churchill Downs track.  WAR OF WILL has the speed to chose his path coming out of the gate ...what if he finds the fastest part of the track all the way around (a big "if" as few jockeys are comfortable riding that close to the rail).  Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked if WAR OF WILL ran well.

FYI here are the two Calvin rail riding wins in the Derby on "off" tracks:

2009 MINE THAT BIRD (such a longshot that the best racecaller in America didn't even recognize him until he was well in front https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv8x9x5A49s  Came from WAY back.

2010 SUPER SAVER this one is cool because you can see in the overhead down the backstretch just how close that Calvin is to the rail, and when he strays even a bit from hugging the rail in the stretch, Calvin visibly tugs him back up against it to stay on what he believes is the best part of the track https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYUQhefukU4

So that's it for this year.  Again take all of this with a grain of salt as I'm not so confident in my conclusions and won't bet beyond what I am already locked in to.  Good luck ...may the horse be with you!