The End of the New
England Patriots Dynasty and Why Tom Brady is Head to Vegas
I am a diehard Patriots Fan, and as much as it pains me to
admit it, I think the run is over.
Unlike others who share this view, my opinion is not dependent on the
assumption that Tom Brady is also finished.
True 2019 wasn’t his best year, but I wouldn’t put it past him to
rebound in 2020 and have another Pro Bowl campaign at age 43.
The issue is
that around him, Rome is burning, and here are the causes:
1) The 2017 draft - The 4th year players are often
the most important on an NFL roster because they generally offer the most
value. They are seasoned veterans but
still playing on rookie contracts.
Generally some of the best contracts, from a team perspective, are those
of 4th year players (like Joe
Thuney’s $2,218,357 for 2019 arguably
their best value of 2019). What do the
Patriots have left from this draft
..rotational D-lineman Deatrich Wise and potential 2020 cut Derek Rivers.
That’s it!
2)
The relative underperformance of the 2018 and
2019 draft classes 2018 originally seemed like a bumper crop. In addition to Wynn and Michel in the first
round, Ja’Whaun Bentley looked like a future Pro Bowler when he went down in
the third game of his rookie year. JC
Jackson was a home run as an undrafted free agent, and there was optimism
regarding some of their other picks especially Duke Dawson, Keoin Crossen, and
Braxton Berrios. However, none of that
trio is still with the team. Bentley was
a solid contributor, but seemed to regress from his stellar rookie campaign,
finding the starting line-up only twice in 2019 (although the Patriots had one
of the best linebacking groups in the NFL).
Michel failed to develop as a pass catching threat and looks like a
draft reach in retrospect. It’s not all
bad with this group. Isaiah Wynn looked
very solid at LT when healthy and has to be considered a draft hit. Jackson has been a solid starting corner and
a first rate find, and I still believe in Bentley. However, this didn’t pan out to be
cornerstone class that the Patriots needed after the 2017 whiff.
Similarly, at one point I thought the 2019
class might turn out to be something special, but top pick N’Keal Harry spent
the beginning of the year on IR, and upon return looked more like someone just
learning to play receiver than the solid route runner that he was on his
Arizona State game tape. He also had
problems with drops. They moved up to 11
spots (at the cost of the 101st pick) to pick Joejaun Williams who
failed to make an impact at CB. Damien
Harris hardly found the field at all. LT
prospect Yodny Cajuste was on IR as was OG Hjalte Froholdt.
I think the jury is still out on the 2019
class, and feel they could get a big contribution from this group …which they
will desperately need if they are going to be contenders in 2020. DE Chase Winovich was an obvious draft hit and
should continue to be a valued contributor.
DT Byron Cowart showed flashes of his younger self and figures in the
forward looking rotation. Harry looked
dangerous in the open field, looks like a potential match-up nightmare in the
red zone, and could develop into one of the best run blocking WRs in the NFL. Maybe coach Scar can work some magic with the
o-lineman.
3)
Many of their best contracts are coming off
the books (2019 cap hit below):
Joe Thuney $2,218,357
Jamie Collins $3,000,000
Kyle Van Noy $6.260,418
Tom Brady $21,500,000
Danny Shelton $1,030,000
The top 4 cornerstone guys are looking at
raises. Shelton was also a very
effective run stuffer on a very cheap deal. Thuney
and Brady could be seeing a bump of as much as $10 million / year. Unfortunately, they were up against the Cap
this year and there are no bad contracts coming off of the books that can make up
the differences, or obvious way to make significant savings through cuts. Also Stephon Gilmore’s cap hit will increase
by $10 million in 2020!
The result of all of this could be
significant subtraction from free agency. Thuney leaving seems like a foregone
conclusion (and he was the anchor of their line in 2019, and the iron man of the
group for all four years with the Pats).
They will almost certainly lose one at least of Collins and Van Noy. Elandon Roberts was also a useful two way contributor this
year and is also probably gone as he will also command a raise from his $2 million
in 2019.
The sad reality is that after massive
losses in 2019 free agency including foundational pieces Trent Brown and Trey
Flowers, and valuable contributors Chris Hogan (although that wasn’t about $),
Malcolm Brown, Cordarrelle Patterson
(could have used him in the return game) and LaAdrian Waddle (and him for
tackle depth), they are looking at a 2nd
straight year of a significant outflow of talent via free agency due to budgetary
constraints.
So what this means is that when you add up
the 2019 and 2020 free agent net departures and the retirement of Gronk, the
Pats have lost a ton of veteran talent over two years. Unfortunately, those holes haven’t been
filled by a commensurate in-flow of young players via the draft. The Patriots are progressively getting worse
from a talent standpoint.
The last negative factor is that the
Patriots don’t have a lot of good veteran contracts left on the books. Gilmore's cap hit in 2019 was a steal, but his
2020 # is more in-line with fair value.
Jonathan Jones same, as his cap # goes up more than $3 million. Sonu’s rises by almost $3 million to $6.5
million (ugh). Look here at their
present situation and try to find the stand out bargains: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/. They are few and far between.
Contrast the
Patriots situation to that of the Buffalo Bills:
There wasn’t so much difference between the Pats and the
Bills this year. Both had similar
records. Both did well against below
average teams and struggled against the best teams. Both games could have gone either way.
Unfortunately, the Bills and Pats are trending in opposite
directions. The Pats are the oldest team
in football and have one of the weaker young cores in the NFL as well as a bad
cap situation headed into free agency.
Buffalo has an abundance of young talent (Dawkins, White, Milano, Allen,
Edmunds, Oliver, and Singletary among others), and an extremely strong cap
position as of now.
A couple of interesting facts (from Spotrac data):
1)
According to Spotrac, the difference between the
market value of Dawkins, White, Edmunds, and Allen versus their actual 2020
salaries …. $58,332,028 undervalued.
2)
Patriots are $42 million under the cap, but this
is with Brady at $13.5 million, less than half his market value and all of the
following unaccounted for (Devin McCourty, Thuney, Collins, Van Noy,
Shelton, Dorsett, Ebner, Slater, Karras,
Roberts, Butler, and others. YIKES!) Bills are more than $89 million under the
cap. They are losing solid starters in
Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson (both valued around $8 million year by Spotrac
but maybe in line for a little more) but could easily sign all of their free
agents and still have a ton of cap room if they chose to go this route.
So suffice to say, the talent needle is pointing down for the
Patriots and up for the Bills … which all leads to my unfortunate speculation:
Tom Brady is
headed to Vegas, baby
I, too, was temporarily pleased by all of the gushing about his
wanting to return. However, Brady being
a smart guy, one has to assume that he also knows the facts above and has to
think that returning in 2020 means that he would potentially be going down with
the ship. So many things would have to
go right to win another ring in Foxboro.
As a result, my new take is that his present media position is posturing
so that when the Patriots lowball him (again), then he has a dignified out …I
wanted to remain a Patriot, but I need to do what’s best for my family and don’t
think it is fair to be underpaid yet again
If there were a potentially better situation, with a team
that desperately wants him, in a market that might be desirable, doesn’t it
make sense to try to win ring #7 without Bill and make an argument for USA best
team sports athlete ever?
Looking over the possibilities, there is one that seems to
check all the boxes. Not only does it
make sense for Tom to consider a two year run, this would also be perfect
timing for the team in question.
THE VEGAS RAIDERS
Here is why it makes sense for Brady:
1)
He joins Gruden who is a proven winner
2)
They are another team, like the Bills with the
needle clearly pointing upward. They had
a potentially huge 2019 draft. They had 3 #1s and got a solid yield there in
addition to several others in later rounds that seem like they will be good as
well as some additional useful contributors.
Ferrell wasn’t as good as they expected, but Jacobs made up for that
,and Abram looks like a Raiders type enforcer at safety if he can curb his
reckless play and stay on the field. Crosby
looks like a steal in the 4th round. Mullen was probably the best player in the
secondary by year end. Hunter Renfroe will do Hunter Renfroe things and it
seems like that can be somewhat effective in the NFL as well (especially with
Brady). TE Moreau and FB Ingold both
found contributing roles as did (cheap) punter Cole.
3)
They have a lot of draft capital in 2020 as well
including 2 #1s and 5 picks in the top 3 rounds.
4)
If massive left tackle Kolton Miller (pick #15
overall in 2018 draft) continues his upward trajectory then they have the
makings for a first rate O-line. Old
friend Trent Brown had another good year.
Incognito and Hudson were solid in the middle. If they cut Gabe Jackson and his $9.6
million cap hit (none of it dead cap) then they could add someone like Thuney
for just a bit more money and potentially have an O-line with no clear weak
spot. Add break outs TE Waller and RB Jabobs and there
is reason for excitement with the offense.
Sure they desperately need a #1 receiver, but they will be in a
financial position to go after one (see below).
5)
The Raiders are almost $63 million under the Cap
(not including $21.5 million to QB Derek Carr).
Worst scenario is they take $5 million in dead cap and move on. Best scenario is they could find a buyer and
get out of his contract entirely. That
money could go towards Brady. The
Raiders have no big impact free agents that they can’t afford to lose and
should be in a good cash position even if they return some of their top
priorities (Good / Jordan / Worley) and upgrade Carr with Brady. Some of this money could go towards trying to
make a splash with a potential #1 receiver (AJ Green, perhaps?). With the offense taken care of, they could go
defense / defense (edge guy / LB?) with
their #1 picks and supplement their core of up-and-comers on that side of the
ball
Here’s why it makes
sense for BOTH parties:
-
The Raiders could offer Brady a two year deal
with a window to take over a team on the rise that could have an immediate
future. If the experiment fails, then
they will still have another year when their 2019 draft class hits their 4th
year together to try to win post Brady AND 3 of those guys are #1s so they can
pick up the 5th year option to play that year with the 2 #1s that will be
drafted this year.
Anyway, if you rate this objectively (without sentiment) I
think this is what make sense for Brady and it certainly makes sense for the
Raiders …they seem like they would have a much better chance to win immediately
with Brady than with Carr and the extra $ isn’t prohibitive.
ADDENDUM:
So the question came up after Brady moved out of his house and Giselle cleaned out her suite (which is not so significant, I think. Given the uncertainty it makes sense). ...what would you do if you were the Pats GM and faced with the present scenario? Adding the "In Bill we trust" disclaimer, here are my thoughts:
If Tom stays, obviously the Pats will be in "win now" mode. They will know before the beginning of Free Agency whether he is staying or not ...because if he doesn't sign by then, they will be forced to apply his current $13.5 million "dead cap" to 2020 ...and clearly Brady doesn't want to do that if he is coming back to win.
If he doesn't sign, they'd be looking at (in best case scenario) roughly "running back" the 2019 effort (using present additional cap to sign most of the key guys, but now with Stidham at the helm (and hopefully some more help from the young guys). Can that make them Super Bowl contenders? Well, in a conference with Mahomes and Jackson, the Pats would basically need to send out a team highly superior at the non QB positions to make up for the shortfall versus the primary competition. This seems unlikely given what is mentioned above.
If he does leave, my move would be to focus efforts on maximizing 2021 and beyond (giving Stidham a year to improve and after the 2017 class is off the books). Their best hope is that the 2018-2020 draft classes form a solid young base (they need to improve) while catching guys like Gilmore / Shaq on the back end of their deals. In this case I'd be looking to extend Jackson (off contract 2021) at team friendly rate. Same for Andrews if they think they have solved his lung issue. James White, as well.
Maybe this approach also favors signing the youngest guys who will be in their primes in the next 3 years over signing older guys (Shelton and Thuney check this box).
If they go into "selling" mode ...looking to dump older vets for draft picks, there aren't many options. You'd need a Godfather offer to consider trading Gilmore (your only stand-out performer in 2019), and the "expiring contracts" (2021) of Jason McCourty and Sonu don't seem like assets that would fetch much because neither of those contracts seems to offer huge value to the team that holds them.
Second Revision (2/21/2020):
With the rumor mill heating up about a potential "Diggs to the Patriots" trade ... New England doesn't seem like a logical landing spot for him in my eyes given that I think the days of the Pats making the Super Bowl by "slinging the ball all over the yard" are in the rear view mirror. Even after adding Diggs, the Pats still wouldn't have a sure-fire, match-up nightmare like Hill or Kelce (or Antonio Brown) or a QB as dynamic as Mahomes. It's difficult to see them winning a shoot-out versus KC going forward with that projected personnel. In addition, re-signing Brady and adding Diggs would stress their Cap situation to the point where they wouldn't be able to address the bigger concern ... replacing Gronk (or, fingers crossed, a Gronk comeback). The optimal path, given the present roster seems to be the one that led to the 2019 Super Bowl victory: Run based packages (12, and 21 & 22 with a FB) on 1st and 10 in order to utilize a line that has the potential to be a top 5 running unit. Cannon and Wynn are both tackles suited to run blocking, and Shaq Mason's strength seems to be as a pulling guard leading around tackle. An obvious hole in their weaponry last year was an in-line tight end to seal the pursuit, and then get out in space off play action. Again Gronk would be the top choice for this. OJ Howard also seems like someone who could fit this role and might be a trade candidate given that he was out of sorts last year in Bruce Arians' vertical passing game, and not the primary pass catching TE. These "two way" TEs are a rare commodity, though, and are rarely available.
Obviously, I am bear-ish on the Pats prospects in 2020, but if I were to construct a hypothetical situation where they are in the mix this season it would look something like this:
Bill's trip to Gronk-Fest was a Brady / Bill recruiting maneuver and the pair are able to win him back for one more go with the pitch "We are going for #7 and WE NEED YOU, MAN to make this happen." With Gronk, a 2nd Allen-type TE (maybe LaCosse ..he showed signs of being a decent h-back style blocker), and Develin back in the fold, they could get back to the business of running the ball and throwing off play action ...maybe more effectively since Wynn is a better run blocker than Brown at LT. Hopefully, Harris and Burkhead could absorb some of the "smashmouth" carries and keep Michel relatively fresh for the stretch run (like 2019) and the offense would be back in business overall. (Worth noting: N'Keal Harry looked lost in the Pats offense in year one. The confident and polished route-runner from the Arizona State game tape was tentative and often out of place. The challenge with the Pats offense is not only getting open, but arriving at an exact location, in an exact way, at an exact time so that Brady can deliver the ball to a "safe" place. I remain confident that Harry, who seems to have a good attitude and work ethic, will eventually figure things out and be a significant contributor as his confidence, and connection with Brady, improve with more reps)
Unfortunately, they are almost certainly going to lose Thuney, and his consistent effectiveness at LG, and probably Ted Karras, as well ...two starters from 2019. We can hope for an Andrews return at center (a stud, and QB of the O-line type, when healthy), Also, the Pats obviously saw something in Yodny Cajuste given his 3rd round selection despite an existing Quad injury (although he might profile better as a "swing tackle" for depth in his "redshirt rookie" year than an inside solution given his body type), and Hjalte Froholdt may be also be useful as an interior piece. Regardless there is work to be done here (and no Coach Scar to lead the process).
All-in-all though, if Gronk returns and can stay healthy, there is at least some hope that the Pats offense can return to something resembling the Super Bowl version.
On defense, there will be issues as well. Van Noy is also almost certainly gone. Note: Miami has infinite Cap Space and the last time he and Brian Flores were seen together, during the stretch run of the SB year, Van Noy was tearing through opposing defenses as effectively as anyone not named Aaron Donald. He seems like a great anchor for what Flores is trying to create in Miami (and if not Miami, one would have to figure that there will also be a big bid from Matt Patricia and Detroit as well as other teams looking to bottle some of the Patriots magic). Danny Shelton should also be out the Patriots price range, although run stuffers are easier to find than effective edge pieces and Byron Cowart showed some signs in his rookie campaign. Finding a suitable mate for Lawrence Guy in the base defense seems doable.
Theoretically, the guy they absolutely, positively can't lose is Devin McCourty In the Patriots "bend but don't break" style defense, a solid tackling QB of the secondary is 100% essential. One thing that makes the Pats secondary elite is that coverage breakdowns are rare ...McCourty seems like the most important cog in the wheel in this regard. Intuitively, McCourty is a "Patriots lifer" type and will be flexible in his demands so that he can retire in Foxboro ...so I think he will be back because it is in everyone's best interest. Ditto for Jamie Collins who hopefully believes that "the grass is greener" in Foxboro after his ugly stint in Cleveland and subsequent resurgence in 2019 upon returning to the Pats.
They'll also probably lose some special teams specialists for Cap reasons as well. Matthew Stater had another banner season and figures to be back, but Nate Ebner isn't likely to get another $2m+/year contract and could be gone. We'll see regarding Justin Bethel. Ditto for Gostkowski. Is the present version of him (aging, post surgery, and clearly past his prime) worth a big cap hit? Maybe this is a place they address in the draft and try to save some $.
SO THE OVERALL PLAN:
Get Gronk and Brady back, and find an effective H-back type TE (maybe LaCosse is an existing solution)
Let Thuney walk and patch his hole (and maybe that of Karras as well) with a combination of 2019 draftees and cheap veteran options.
Let Van Noy go and increase the playing time of Ja'Whaun Bentley (who hopefully returns to his high 2018 level pre-injury) and Chase Winovitch.
Let Shelton go and piece together a solution with Cowart and cheap vet options.
Shave some cap on Special Teams
This team, on paper, offers me at least a ray of hope for one last go. Figure they'll also be targeting more TE help, a safety to eventually replace the 3 aging vets, and an interior lineman to make up for the Thuney departure.
ADDENDUM:
So the question came up after Brady moved out of his house and Giselle cleaned out her suite (which is not so significant, I think. Given the uncertainty it makes sense). ...what would you do if you were the Pats GM and faced with the present scenario? Adding the "In Bill we trust" disclaimer, here are my thoughts:
If Tom stays, obviously the Pats will be in "win now" mode. They will know before the beginning of Free Agency whether he is staying or not ...because if he doesn't sign by then, they will be forced to apply his current $13.5 million "dead cap" to 2020 ...and clearly Brady doesn't want to do that if he is coming back to win.
If he doesn't sign, they'd be looking at (in best case scenario) roughly "running back" the 2019 effort (using present additional cap to sign most of the key guys, but now with Stidham at the helm (and hopefully some more help from the young guys). Can that make them Super Bowl contenders? Well, in a conference with Mahomes and Jackson, the Pats would basically need to send out a team highly superior at the non QB positions to make up for the shortfall versus the primary competition. This seems unlikely given what is mentioned above.
If he does leave, my move would be to focus efforts on maximizing 2021 and beyond (giving Stidham a year to improve and after the 2017 class is off the books). Their best hope is that the 2018-2020 draft classes form a solid young base (they need to improve) while catching guys like Gilmore / Shaq on the back end of their deals. In this case I'd be looking to extend Jackson (off contract 2021) at team friendly rate. Same for Andrews if they think they have solved his lung issue. James White, as well.
Maybe this approach also favors signing the youngest guys who will be in their primes in the next 3 years over signing older guys (Shelton and Thuney check this box).
If they go into "selling" mode ...looking to dump older vets for draft picks, there aren't many options. You'd need a Godfather offer to consider trading Gilmore (your only stand-out performer in 2019), and the "expiring contracts" (2021) of Jason McCourty and Sonu don't seem like assets that would fetch much because neither of those contracts seems to offer huge value to the team that holds them.
Second Revision (2/21/2020):
With the rumor mill heating up about a potential "Diggs to the Patriots" trade ... New England doesn't seem like a logical landing spot for him in my eyes given that I think the days of the Pats making the Super Bowl by "slinging the ball all over the yard" are in the rear view mirror. Even after adding Diggs, the Pats still wouldn't have a sure-fire, match-up nightmare like Hill or Kelce (or Antonio Brown) or a QB as dynamic as Mahomes. It's difficult to see them winning a shoot-out versus KC going forward with that projected personnel. In addition, re-signing Brady and adding Diggs would stress their Cap situation to the point where they wouldn't be able to address the bigger concern ... replacing Gronk (or, fingers crossed, a Gronk comeback). The optimal path, given the present roster seems to be the one that led to the 2019 Super Bowl victory: Run based packages (12, and 21 & 22 with a FB) on 1st and 10 in order to utilize a line that has the potential to be a top 5 running unit. Cannon and Wynn are both tackles suited to run blocking, and Shaq Mason's strength seems to be as a pulling guard leading around tackle. An obvious hole in their weaponry last year was an in-line tight end to seal the pursuit, and then get out in space off play action. Again Gronk would be the top choice for this. OJ Howard also seems like someone who could fit this role and might be a trade candidate given that he was out of sorts last year in Bruce Arians' vertical passing game, and not the primary pass catching TE. These "two way" TEs are a rare commodity, though, and are rarely available.
Obviously, I am bear-ish on the Pats prospects in 2020, but if I were to construct a hypothetical situation where they are in the mix this season it would look something like this:
Bill's trip to Gronk-Fest was a Brady / Bill recruiting maneuver and the pair are able to win him back for one more go with the pitch "We are going for #7 and WE NEED YOU, MAN to make this happen." With Gronk, a 2nd Allen-type TE (maybe LaCosse ..he showed signs of being a decent h-back style blocker), and Develin back in the fold, they could get back to the business of running the ball and throwing off play action ...maybe more effectively since Wynn is a better run blocker than Brown at LT. Hopefully, Harris and Burkhead could absorb some of the "smashmouth" carries and keep Michel relatively fresh for the stretch run (like 2019) and the offense would be back in business overall. (Worth noting: N'Keal Harry looked lost in the Pats offense in year one. The confident and polished route-runner from the Arizona State game tape was tentative and often out of place. The challenge with the Pats offense is not only getting open, but arriving at an exact location, in an exact way, at an exact time so that Brady can deliver the ball to a "safe" place. I remain confident that Harry, who seems to have a good attitude and work ethic, will eventually figure things out and be a significant contributor as his confidence, and connection with Brady, improve with more reps)
Unfortunately, they are almost certainly going to lose Thuney, and his consistent effectiveness at LG, and probably Ted Karras, as well ...two starters from 2019. We can hope for an Andrews return at center (a stud, and QB of the O-line type, when healthy), Also, the Pats obviously saw something in Yodny Cajuste given his 3rd round selection despite an existing Quad injury (although he might profile better as a "swing tackle" for depth in his "redshirt rookie" year than an inside solution given his body type), and Hjalte Froholdt may be also be useful as an interior piece. Regardless there is work to be done here (and no Coach Scar to lead the process).
All-in-all though, if Gronk returns and can stay healthy, there is at least some hope that the Pats offense can return to something resembling the Super Bowl version.
On defense, there will be issues as well. Van Noy is also almost certainly gone. Note: Miami has infinite Cap Space and the last time he and Brian Flores were seen together, during the stretch run of the SB year, Van Noy was tearing through opposing defenses as effectively as anyone not named Aaron Donald. He seems like a great anchor for what Flores is trying to create in Miami (and if not Miami, one would have to figure that there will also be a big bid from Matt Patricia and Detroit as well as other teams looking to bottle some of the Patriots magic). Danny Shelton should also be out the Patriots price range, although run stuffers are easier to find than effective edge pieces and Byron Cowart showed some signs in his rookie campaign. Finding a suitable mate for Lawrence Guy in the base defense seems doable.
Theoretically, the guy they absolutely, positively can't lose is Devin McCourty In the Patriots "bend but don't break" style defense, a solid tackling QB of the secondary is 100% essential. One thing that makes the Pats secondary elite is that coverage breakdowns are rare ...McCourty seems like the most important cog in the wheel in this regard. Intuitively, McCourty is a "Patriots lifer" type and will be flexible in his demands so that he can retire in Foxboro ...so I think he will be back because it is in everyone's best interest. Ditto for Jamie Collins who hopefully believes that "the grass is greener" in Foxboro after his ugly stint in Cleveland and subsequent resurgence in 2019 upon returning to the Pats.
They'll also probably lose some special teams specialists for Cap reasons as well. Matthew Stater had another banner season and figures to be back, but Nate Ebner isn't likely to get another $2m+/year contract and could be gone. We'll see regarding Justin Bethel. Ditto for Gostkowski. Is the present version of him (aging, post surgery, and clearly past his prime) worth a big cap hit? Maybe this is a place they address in the draft and try to save some $.
SO THE OVERALL PLAN:
Get Gronk and Brady back, and find an effective H-back type TE (maybe LaCosse is an existing solution)
Let Thuney walk and patch his hole (and maybe that of Karras as well) with a combination of 2019 draftees and cheap veteran options.
Let Van Noy go and increase the playing time of Ja'Whaun Bentley (who hopefully returns to his high 2018 level pre-injury) and Chase Winovitch.
Let Shelton go and piece together a solution with Cowart and cheap vet options.
Shave some cap on Special Teams
This team, on paper, offers me at least a ray of hope for one last go. Figure they'll also be targeting more TE help, a safety to eventually replace the 3 aging vets, and an interior lineman to make up for the Thuney departure.
