UPDATE 45 minutes before post: Given the current odds, I am going to use Hence. He seems like the best value to me at the price given the track conditions.
Welcome to the annual Derby blog. Since we last convened, the big news in the horseracing world has been Arrogate. In just 4 stakes races, he vaulted himself into the discussion of "Greatest Classic Distance Horse Since the 70's." The Travers / Breeders Cup Classic / Pegasus / Dubai World Cup string is probably the best that I have ever seen. A couple of track records. The dramatic running down of California Chrome from way back in the Breeder's Cup ..in the latter's best career effort by far etc. He is off until late summer, when we'll probably see him again at Del Mar and then in the Breeder's Cup. If he runs back to those efforts again, I think the case will be closed.
Why have I never heard of Arrogate, you ask? Well, he was a late starting 3 year old, not running his first race until weeks before last year's Derby and thus missed the Triple Crown. He did beat the Preakness and Belmont winners in the Travers (won by 13 lengths!) and then C-Chrome (Derby / Preakness winner 2014) in the aforementioned Breeder's Cup race.
On to the Derby ....
So to start, there have been two types of Derbys recently:
1) There is an obvious "superior horse." A potential champion. You feel like if that horse is on his game and gets a good trip, he will win. That simple. In the last decade I see those as
- American Pharoah (who I bet)
- Big Brown (who I also bet)
- California Chrome (who I didn't believe in enough to justify the price at the time)
In the rest of the races I didn't feel (at Derby post time) like there was a potential Triple Crown winner in the bunch. Those races were all won who achieved peak form (for their whole careers!) at exactly this time. Among the other 6 winners since Big Brown ...NONE of them ever got any better...despite the fact that horses in the spring of their 3 year old year generally are still improving and growing into their maturing bodies. There is an old horse racing adage that I haven't heard in quite some time "four year olds beat three year olds" and this reflects that horse often improve to another level at age 4 ...but not in the case of the Derby winners.
THIS YEAR ....I don't see an obvious "superior horse." I would accept suggestions that their are two possibilities ..and we'll discuss them first.
SUPERIOR HORSE?
CLASSIC EMPIRE ran a big figure to win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year and would be head and shoulders above if he could improve on that. The only problem is that I see nothing in his present form that suggests that this will happen. He was sidelined in the middle of the campaign with a hoof abscess and hasn't run very well since. He did win the Arkansas Derby in his last, but that race was unusually slow and he only beat a journeyman horse (Lookin' at Lee ..also in Derby field) by 1&1/2 lengths despite the fact that the latter tried to visit every path on the Oaklawn stretch, running a crazy zig-zag of a pattern home, while ducking in and out of others, probably losing 3 lengths in the process. Based on that tape alone, I'd be more inclined to bet Lookin' at Lee than Classic Empire ...but the former has no other reason in his past performances to consider him. Finally, both DRF Clockers (who are usually spot on in their Derby observations) suggest that Classic Empire looks less than 100% these days, by observations in the morning at Churchill.
So you can speculate that CLASSIC EMPIRE will return to peak form for the Derby and bet him ...but I won't at a relatively short price. PASS.
ALWAYS DREAMING is the most interesting horse in the race. Both clockers are very impressed by his long strides and suggest that his work-out the other day was far and away the best of the contenders. That combined with a very impressive win in his last in the Florida Derby such that it may be possible for him to be a champion. He may be fast enough at longer distances.
However, given that he will probably be a solid favorite, I'm gonna take the "glass half empty" view. First of all, this horse has little experience against top caliber horses ...the Florida Derby was his first stakes race ..and he's had "perfect trips" in all 3 races this year. Almost like he was running in a time trial and granted a lane where he had no impediments to running his fastest possible time. With 20 horses ...things will not be that easy in the Derby. How will he react to adversity. Maybe he'll be fine, but horses with this little seasoning rarely perform to peak in the Derby. This is not a time trial, but rather a crazy 20 horse stampede.
The other knock on ALMOST DREAMING is that he has been extremely unruly in the mornings over the past week or so. He became so difficult to handle that they put special "draw reigns" on him so that he could be more easily managed. Those will come off for the race. So the big question is ... what is going to happen in front of 100,000+ screaming lunatics. If he doesn't react well to that (a distinct possibility) then his chances will be diminished considerably.
So I will also pass on Almost Dreaming. If you want to bet on him as the most likely champion in the group...feel free. My only advice in that regard is if you are going to do this ....wait until 5 minutes before the race. Watch how he behaves up until then. If he is unruly and very difficult to handle, then you might want to reconsider.
NEED TO RUN THEIR BEST RACE (my guess is that the race will be run by a horse who "peaks" at exactly this time in his life)
(Note: I don't have the time to write on all of them ...bur here are some that I thought worthy of consideration).
IRISH WAR CRY - Actually he could be the 3rd in the above group, but he doesn't have the same wow! factor of Almost Dreaming or the class of CLASSIC EMPIRE ...but he does have some of the fastest prep races in the field. He'll probably still have to improve to win, but not out of the question for him to be a champion. There's a lot to like here including Graham Motion, the trainer of our 2011 Derby score (21-1) Animal Kingdom. He is a world class horseman who knows how to prepare horses for big races (one of the few trainers to have a positive Return On Investment (ROI) in Graded Stakes races. Also, his sire is Curlin which suggests that he may take to the long mile and a quarter distance. I may bet this one.
However, there are a couple of negatives regarding Irish War Cry that are worth mentioning. The big one is jockey Rajiv Maragh. Putting him on this horse for this race seems like a tactical error. He has been a consistent underperformer at classic distance stakes races over the years. I have a personal bias against him. Given, it's good that he should be towards the front, and therefore have less chances to make trouble for himself ...I still consider this a negative. Also, the winners of the Wood Memorial have dramatically underperformed over the years. Not sure why. Change in climate? Random chance? Hard to say, but worth noting.
Again, could justify betting this one. At this time, though, I won't. Worth consideration.
So I'm going to toss all of the horses from the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbys (too slow). Girvin looks like a horse that is improving, and he picks up Mike Smith which is a plus ...but I don't think he is ready yet to make a huge leap Ditto for the Santa Anita Derby ...usually one of the strongest Derby preps, but very substandard this year (This eliminates and Battle of Midway and Gormley).
If you are gunning for longshots ...these 2 have an outside shot:
HENCE - A major riddle. Nothing to speak of prior to his last start and then a huge performance where they had to adjust his figure down because it was so out of line with prior races. Interestingly, Irad, who was badly beaten in that race, came back to win the Bluegrass (one of the strongest Derby preps this year). Running style much more suitable to Churchill than Sunland..a plus. Don't know what to think here. May consider at the right price. Also, moves up on wet track as he is one of the few that has won such a race.
TAPWRIT - Both clockers love the way he looks in the morning this week. His Tampa Bay Derby 2 back was very good. I like the jockey (Ortiz) in this sort of spot. Problem is, in the Bluegrass he didn't run a step. Hard to like him over McCraken when the latter had slowed down due to small traffic and Tapwrit pulled up beside him entering the far turn and McCraken just took off and ran away from him. At 20-1+ is definitely worthy of consideration ...only problem is that the love from the clockers may force his price down considerably. Likely to pass at the expected price.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
MCCRAKEN - Mentioned above. This is the one that I want to bet. I think he is most likely among all of them to run his best career race on Derby Day given that 1) The Nafzger / Wilkes team has proven very capable of picking a specific race and getting the horse to peak specifically then. This can be frustrating for bettors who wager on them in preps only to see their horses deliver less than optimal performance (see McCraken in Blue Grass). Anyway, I think that race and the issues that he had in the backstretch will serve him well. 2) That combined with his excellent training over the Churchill strip in the last couple of weeks suggests that he may be peaking at the right time.
Negatives on McCraken include a) he is a "buzz" horse due to his recent training and he may be overbet. In fact, the ML of 5-1 seems too short compared to his previous race record. Also, while jockey Brian Hernandez is not a major negative, he is not first tier either. He killed Mo Tom's chances in the Derby last year when getting him into big trouble at exactly the wrong time (when he was just starting his closing burst). I may eliminate on price consideration. At 8-1 or more, I would probably bet.
GUNNEVERA - This horse's 15-1 morning line looks like a type to me. There are negatives including his lackluster showing in the Florida Derby and his leisurely recent workout (slowest for distance at track that day) BUT this horse was just an odds-on favorite against Almost Dreaming in last, sports the most solid stakes race efforts in the field, has champion classic distance sires all over his pedigree and should appreciate the added distance, has a favorable come-from-behind running style, and a Hall of Fame jockey (although coming from way behind on long races is not his strongest suit.
SUMMARY
So as of now (Thursday Afternoon) I am strongly considering 3 horses. My target prices are roughly 12-1 Gunnevera, 8-1 McCraken, and 25-1 Hence ...if I get better than that on any of them then that will be my likely selection.
If you want further color, I will make an update of this at least 15 minutes before post time on Derby Day to inform you of my final selection
Thursday, May 4, 2017
Friday, January 23, 2015
Patriots Deflate-gate
OK, after digesting the Deflate-gate info for a few days,
here are my observations (based on the limited information available):
-
Contrary to the language of the original reports
by the NFL, I personally don’t believe that the balls were tampered with
between the inspection and the game. If
they were, this would be a clear and serious violation of the rules and my
opinion on this matter would change drastically.
-
What is more likely is that the balls were
inflated in very warm conditions (probably warmer than the locker room) and
then inspected in the warm locker room with the knowledge that the balls would
naturally deflate below league prescribed levels when exposed to colder
temperatures outside. There is a good
chance that this is not the first time this has happened. It is easy to imagine that this has been
going on for some time and therefore the Pats have played other games with under-inflated footballs. as well.
-
This rule of “each team brings its own ball (for
offense)” has been around at many levels of football for quite some time. The reason: teams (especially QBs) want the
ball a certain way and thus are able to use balls that suit their preferences
(without giving one team or the other an unfair advantage by making them use a
football that they find difficult to use).
-
Brady unquestionably knew about this (that the level of inflation was below the prescribed league minimum). He is just too tuned into the small variables
that such a significant under-inflation could go by unnoticed …but again, maybe
this wasn’t unusual because it is standard practice by the Pats in Foxboro on
cold days.
-
If there is any blame to be cast, it is on Brady
for not being candid about this. Again,
he almost surely knows what happened.
-
The handling of this whole affair by the NFL is
embarrassing. Should this be a huge
story … absolutely not. It would be a
surprise if (given the potential change in temperature / weather conditions)
this doesn’t happen at least a handful of times during the regular season
league-wide. I would suspect more,
actually. For the NFL to dive head first
into this and make it a scandal with no data and no basis for comparison is
highly irresponsible.
-
My guess is that this will be “the straw that
broke the camel’s back” and result in the firing of commissioner Roger Goodell. He was treading on thin ice already with the
poor handling of the Ray Rice incident and inconsistencies regarding player
suspensions. Add to this another big
media blunder and the making of a very powerful enemy (in Robert Kraft).…his
days are likely numbered.
I guess the broader question surrounding this is “How much
blame is due to Tom Brady” for knowingly working around the rules. Personally, I don’t think that Brady or the
Patriots technically BROKE the rules, but rather found a convenient and clever
way to get around them. Is this behavior
acceptable … good question and the subject of an interesting debate. Are many successful NFL and College teams
working around the rules when they can gain an advantage by doing so? …I would
say indubitably yes.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
Why the Patriots are poised to win the 2015 Super Bowl ....
Here is my take on why the Patriots are poised to make a serious run at the NFL championship in 2014-15, and should be the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIX:
Summary: The Patriots went 12-4 in 2013 and advanced to the AFC Championship despite a plague of injuries to some of their best players. They begin the 2014 season with no major injuries to report to key contributors. Among those who return:
Vince Wolfork - Multiple all-pro selection. The linchpin of the Patriots run defense. Pats had a very difficult time preventing opposing teams from rushing up the middle after Wolfork went down
Jerod Mayo - The QB of the defense. Another all-pro. Super versatile, athletic linebacker who is perfect for the Belichik style of defense that places a premium on multi-skilled defenders
Rob Gronkowski - Yet another all-pro. Best all-around TE in football when healthy. The key to the offense (especially in the Red Zone) along with Brady.
Sebastian Vollmer - 2nd team all-pro in 2010. Key OL contributor
Shane Vareen - Missed a significant portion of 2013 season (although played in play-offs). When chips are down and Pats need to score, this is the guy they want on the field. On of top 50 / 50 (run / pass) type backs in league.
...................
FACT or FICTION
FICTION: Brady and the offense have carried the Patriots to play-off success and 3 Super Bowls. In the play-offs Brady has posted a solid, but not extraordinary, 87.5 passer rating ...ranking him slightly ahead of contemporaries Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Phillip Rivers. In the 3 Super Bowl wins, his lines are as follows:
2002 St Louis 16 (completions) - 27 (attempts) - 145 (yards) -1 (TD) - 0 (INTs)
2004 Carolina 32-48-354-3-1
2005 Philly 23-33-236-2-0
While these were solid efforts (and the TD-INT ratio of 6-1 is exceptional), they are not the stats of a guy who "carried" his team with the exception of the Carolina game which was one been his best performances ever in a big spot.
In addition, in the last 6 play-off losses (2 to Baltimore, 1 to NYJ, 2 Super Bowls versus NYG, and last year's AFC championship against Denver) the play of Brady and the offense has been mediocre in general, and in the two Baltimore games was sub-par. Brady was rattled by pressure that collapsed the pocket frequently and unable to improvise successfully under difficult conditions.
While the offense has delivered them to the door many times in the Belichick-Brady era, rarely has it put them over the top.
FACT: The performance of the Patriots defense was the key to 2 of the Patriots 3 Super Bowl wins.
In the 2005 Philly game, the Pats turned the Eagles over 4 times, had 4 sacks, and held the Eagles rushing attack to just 45 yards on 17 carries ...forcing McNabb into "must pass" mode and a bunch of turnovers.
In the 2002 St Louis game, the Patriots defense remarkably held one of the best offenses in NFL history, "the greatest show on turf", to a paltry 17 points ..(as compared to a low of 27 points over the prior 8 games), turned the Rams over 3 times, and scored on a "pick 6" by CB Ty Law.
The purpose of this brief history lesson was to demonstrate that in the years when the Patriots were winning Super Bowls, the defense was at least equally important in securing those victories.
THE 2014 PATRIOTS DEFENSE:
In the early 2000s, the Patriots revolutionized the way that teams thought about defense. Central to their success was employing athletic, multi-skilled players like Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi, who could serve in multiple roles (defending the run, rushing the passer, and dropping into coverage). While Bruschi had one of the all-time great NCAA college careers, he slipped to #86 in the NFL draft because he didn't have a clear-cut position in the NFL, but Belichick saw a play-maker who did multiple things well and managed to employ his unique skill set at MLB where he became one of the greatest Patriots defenders. Vrable, similarly, didn't have a stand-out skill in an era that emphasized specialization and was signed from Pittsburgh to a fairly modest free agent contract. Unfortunately, as the Patriots experienced huge success, and Belichick defensive disciples like Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini took over head coaching spots, the NFL started placing a premium on "Bellichick-type" players. As a result, it became far more difficult to find multi-skilled players at LB.
The 2009-2013 Patriots defense bore little resemblance to the successful units of the Super Bowl years. The Patriots lost Vrable to free agency and Bruschi to retirement. The linebacking core went from athletic and versatile to slow and one dimensional. MLBs like an aging Junior Seau and Brandon Spikes were on the extreme slow end of the spectrum for NFL linebackers. With exception of Mayo, Belichick had no "jack-of-all trades" players to keep teams off balance (from a lack of knowing what any of the LBs was going to do on a given play).
Finally, the other primary characteristic that was crucial for the Super Bowl teams was a "shutdown" cornerback. Both Ty Law and Asante Samuel were key players during those years in that role. As one of Belichick's primary defensive goals is to limit the production of the most important weapon on the opposing offense (which is generally a WR), the ability to assign one guy to that role frees up the rest of the defense to do interesting, and unpredictable, things by dictating to the offense as opposed to vice-versa. Also, worth noting that the Super Bowl winning teams featured especially strong secondaries, in general ...while recently this has been a primary weakness for the Patriots and the pass defense has been consistently among the bottom 10 as a result.
Why the 2014 Defense is much closer to the 2002-2005 Super Bowl winning units than the more recent mediocre (or worse) versions:
- For the first time since Samuel left for the Eagles in Free Agency (2008), the Patriots have a legitimate "shut down" corner. In his prime Revis was in a class by himself among NFL CBs, and now two seasons removed from ACL surgery, most expect him to return to the status of one of the elite cover-corners in the NFL. While Aqib Talib (the next closest thing to shut down CB since Samuel) did a solid job of covering slower WRs and athletic TEs (when healthy, that is), Talib was not a great match for the primary AFC receiving threats, many of whom have elite speed (like AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace etc.),
- The rest of the Pats secondary is also above average. First of all, the Pats have the most depth at CB in the NFL (which often becomes critical in December / January) with as many as 6 players that could start for a handful of NFL teams. Additionally, Devin McCourty has emerged as one of the best 2 or 3 free safeties in the NFL.
- For the first time since 2008, the Patriots once again have an extremely athletic, extremely versatile linebacking core. Mayo is joined by first round draft choice Donte Hightower, and physical freak Jamie Collins who came into his own after inheriting a starting role in December of 2013 (his rookie year). This unit can excel in coverage, and rushing the passer, and should hold its own in the running game. Finally, Belichick has the athletes to once again employ creative schemes that confuse opposing QBs.
- With first round draft pick Chandler Jones slowly emerging as a top-flight pass-rusher, Rob Ninkovitch providing steady, if unspectacular, production (8 sacks each of last 2 years), Wilfork and 1st round rookie Dominique Easley serving as solid interior pass rushing tandem, and a bunch of linebackers that can get to the QB, the pass rush (another big weakness in the last 6 years) should be significantly improved.
Summary: The Patriots have addressed their weakness in the secondary and pass defense and turned this area into a potential major strength. The 2014 defense looks like the best unit since the Super Bowl years and worthy of a top contender. IMHO they project as one of the best 5 defenses in the NFL this year.
After a down year in 2013, the Patriots offense should improve and be one of the top groups in the NFL in 2014:
Looking back to last year at this time:
- The key non-Brady player, Ron Gronkowski was still healing from two major surgeries (back, forearm) and never really got into the groove in 2013. While he underwent season ending knee surgery in January 2014, the Gronk looks and feels heathier than this time last year. Obviously he is still a major injury risk, but having him on the field alone could transform the offense. Example: In games that Gronkowski played last year, the Pats had a 69% red zone efficiency #, when not available that dropped to 43% ...a HUGE difference. 69% would have ranked 3rd over-all in NFL last year whereas 43% would have ranked DEAD LAST ....no team is going to win a Super Bowl ranked last in this category.
- Aaron Hernandez was sent to jail and all of a sudden both of the TEs who were the cornerstones of one of the NFL's best offenses were gone. On short notice, the Pats were unable to find a suitable "move" TE to fill the Hernandez role. However, with the trade for Tampa's Tim Wright, the Patriots pick-up a very solid candidate to replace some of the production of Hernandez and serve as another big target for Brady to find in the Red Zone.
- After losing Welker, Lloyd, Woodhead, Gronkowski, and Hernandez the Patriots opened the 2013 campaign without all 5 of their top pass catchers from the previous season. Add that they required rookie WRs Aaron Dobson and Kembrell Tompkins to take on major roles in the offense as rookies (never a good idea in the NFL ..it usually requires at least one year for WRs to "get it") AND their main pass catching back (and the only viable replacement for Woodhead) Shane Vareen was on the IR. Clearly, all of this was a bit much for Brady and the passing game to overcome, and as a result they slipped from one of the top passing teams to middle-of-the-road.
But the situation looks much better in 2013 because:
- Gronk is healthy, at least temporarily and Wright should help at TE
- Dobson and Thompkins should improve with a year of experience
- All of the WRs from last year should be more in sync with Brady after a full year of experience together.
- Vareen is back
Some would suggest that there is concern in the offensive line after trading away pro bowl guard Logan Mankins, but others (including me) believe that while Mankins was still a decent NFL guard, age has slowed him a bit and as a result he was a liability in pass protection in 2013. Unquestionably, there are some questions at OL (especially who will play the guard spot vacated by Mankins) in the near-term, but the Patriots are confident that they have a deep and talented group. The potential line of (left to right) Solder, Vollmer, Wendell, Connolly, and Cannon puts their best 3 OL athletes (Solder, Vollmer, And Cannon) into the line-up at the same time, and should eventually overcome any of the short-term issues related to continuity
The Special Teams units (especially kicker Stephen Gostkowski) are also among the NFLs best.
Fearless prediction: The Patriots go 14-2 or 13-3 and win the #1 seed for AFC play-offs, knock off Andrew Luck and Indy in the conference semis, beat Manning and Denver in the AFC conference championship, and finish the job by defeating the Saints in the SB.
Anyone going to Vegas: While the present odds of 7-1 price the Patriots chances of winning the Super Bowl at one in eight (12.5%), I rate this as their best team since the 2002-2005 dynasty (with the possible exception of 2007-08) and figure those odds are more than fair.
Summary: The Patriots went 12-4 in 2013 and advanced to the AFC Championship despite a plague of injuries to some of their best players. They begin the 2014 season with no major injuries to report to key contributors. Among those who return:
Vince Wolfork - Multiple all-pro selection. The linchpin of the Patriots run defense. Pats had a very difficult time preventing opposing teams from rushing up the middle after Wolfork went down
Jerod Mayo - The QB of the defense. Another all-pro. Super versatile, athletic linebacker who is perfect for the Belichik style of defense that places a premium on multi-skilled defenders
Rob Gronkowski - Yet another all-pro. Best all-around TE in football when healthy. The key to the offense (especially in the Red Zone) along with Brady.
Sebastian Vollmer - 2nd team all-pro in 2010. Key OL contributor
Shane Vareen - Missed a significant portion of 2013 season (although played in play-offs). When chips are down and Pats need to score, this is the guy they want on the field. On of top 50 / 50 (run / pass) type backs in league.
...................
FACT or FICTION
FICTION: Brady and the offense have carried the Patriots to play-off success and 3 Super Bowls. In the play-offs Brady has posted a solid, but not extraordinary, 87.5 passer rating ...ranking him slightly ahead of contemporaries Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Phillip Rivers. In the 3 Super Bowl wins, his lines are as follows:
2002 St Louis 16 (completions) - 27 (attempts) - 145 (yards) -1 (TD) - 0 (INTs)
2004 Carolina 32-48-354-3-1
2005 Philly 23-33-236-2-0
While these were solid efforts (and the TD-INT ratio of 6-1 is exceptional), they are not the stats of a guy who "carried" his team with the exception of the Carolina game which was one been his best performances ever in a big spot.
In addition, in the last 6 play-off losses (2 to Baltimore, 1 to NYJ, 2 Super Bowls versus NYG, and last year's AFC championship against Denver) the play of Brady and the offense has been mediocre in general, and in the two Baltimore games was sub-par. Brady was rattled by pressure that collapsed the pocket frequently and unable to improvise successfully under difficult conditions.
While the offense has delivered them to the door many times in the Belichick-Brady era, rarely has it put them over the top.
FACT: The performance of the Patriots defense was the key to 2 of the Patriots 3 Super Bowl wins.
In the 2005 Philly game, the Pats turned the Eagles over 4 times, had 4 sacks, and held the Eagles rushing attack to just 45 yards on 17 carries ...forcing McNabb into "must pass" mode and a bunch of turnovers.
In the 2002 St Louis game, the Patriots defense remarkably held one of the best offenses in NFL history, "the greatest show on turf", to a paltry 17 points ..(as compared to a low of 27 points over the prior 8 games), turned the Rams over 3 times, and scored on a "pick 6" by CB Ty Law.
The purpose of this brief history lesson was to demonstrate that in the years when the Patriots were winning Super Bowls, the defense was at least equally important in securing those victories.
THE 2014 PATRIOTS DEFENSE:
In the early 2000s, the Patriots revolutionized the way that teams thought about defense. Central to their success was employing athletic, multi-skilled players like Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi, who could serve in multiple roles (defending the run, rushing the passer, and dropping into coverage). While Bruschi had one of the all-time great NCAA college careers, he slipped to #86 in the NFL draft because he didn't have a clear-cut position in the NFL, but Belichick saw a play-maker who did multiple things well and managed to employ his unique skill set at MLB where he became one of the greatest Patriots defenders. Vrable, similarly, didn't have a stand-out skill in an era that emphasized specialization and was signed from Pittsburgh to a fairly modest free agent contract. Unfortunately, as the Patriots experienced huge success, and Belichick defensive disciples like Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini took over head coaching spots, the NFL started placing a premium on "Bellichick-type" players. As a result, it became far more difficult to find multi-skilled players at LB.
The 2009-2013 Patriots defense bore little resemblance to the successful units of the Super Bowl years. The Patriots lost Vrable to free agency and Bruschi to retirement. The linebacking core went from athletic and versatile to slow and one dimensional. MLBs like an aging Junior Seau and Brandon Spikes were on the extreme slow end of the spectrum for NFL linebackers. With exception of Mayo, Belichick had no "jack-of-all trades" players to keep teams off balance (from a lack of knowing what any of the LBs was going to do on a given play).
Finally, the other primary characteristic that was crucial for the Super Bowl teams was a "shutdown" cornerback. Both Ty Law and Asante Samuel were key players during those years in that role. As one of Belichick's primary defensive goals is to limit the production of the most important weapon on the opposing offense (which is generally a WR), the ability to assign one guy to that role frees up the rest of the defense to do interesting, and unpredictable, things by dictating to the offense as opposed to vice-versa. Also, worth noting that the Super Bowl winning teams featured especially strong secondaries, in general ...while recently this has been a primary weakness for the Patriots and the pass defense has been consistently among the bottom 10 as a result.
Why the 2014 Defense is much closer to the 2002-2005 Super Bowl winning units than the more recent mediocre (or worse) versions:
- For the first time since Samuel left for the Eagles in Free Agency (2008), the Patriots have a legitimate "shut down" corner. In his prime Revis was in a class by himself among NFL CBs, and now two seasons removed from ACL surgery, most expect him to return to the status of one of the elite cover-corners in the NFL. While Aqib Talib (the next closest thing to shut down CB since Samuel) did a solid job of covering slower WRs and athletic TEs (when healthy, that is), Talib was not a great match for the primary AFC receiving threats, many of whom have elite speed (like AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace etc.),
- The rest of the Pats secondary is also above average. First of all, the Pats have the most depth at CB in the NFL (which often becomes critical in December / January) with as many as 6 players that could start for a handful of NFL teams. Additionally, Devin McCourty has emerged as one of the best 2 or 3 free safeties in the NFL.
- For the first time since 2008, the Patriots once again have an extremely athletic, extremely versatile linebacking core. Mayo is joined by first round draft choice Donte Hightower, and physical freak Jamie Collins who came into his own after inheriting a starting role in December of 2013 (his rookie year). This unit can excel in coverage, and rushing the passer, and should hold its own in the running game. Finally, Belichick has the athletes to once again employ creative schemes that confuse opposing QBs.
- With first round draft pick Chandler Jones slowly emerging as a top-flight pass-rusher, Rob Ninkovitch providing steady, if unspectacular, production (8 sacks each of last 2 years), Wilfork and 1st round rookie Dominique Easley serving as solid interior pass rushing tandem, and a bunch of linebackers that can get to the QB, the pass rush (another big weakness in the last 6 years) should be significantly improved.
Summary: The Patriots have addressed their weakness in the secondary and pass defense and turned this area into a potential major strength. The 2014 defense looks like the best unit since the Super Bowl years and worthy of a top contender. IMHO they project as one of the best 5 defenses in the NFL this year.
After a down year in 2013, the Patriots offense should improve and be one of the top groups in the NFL in 2014:
Looking back to last year at this time:
- The key non-Brady player, Ron Gronkowski was still healing from two major surgeries (back, forearm) and never really got into the groove in 2013. While he underwent season ending knee surgery in January 2014, the Gronk looks and feels heathier than this time last year. Obviously he is still a major injury risk, but having him on the field alone could transform the offense. Example: In games that Gronkowski played last year, the Pats had a 69% red zone efficiency #, when not available that dropped to 43% ...a HUGE difference. 69% would have ranked 3rd over-all in NFL last year whereas 43% would have ranked DEAD LAST ....no team is going to win a Super Bowl ranked last in this category.
- Aaron Hernandez was sent to jail and all of a sudden both of the TEs who were the cornerstones of one of the NFL's best offenses were gone. On short notice, the Pats were unable to find a suitable "move" TE to fill the Hernandez role. However, with the trade for Tampa's Tim Wright, the Patriots pick-up a very solid candidate to replace some of the production of Hernandez and serve as another big target for Brady to find in the Red Zone.
- After losing Welker, Lloyd, Woodhead, Gronkowski, and Hernandez the Patriots opened the 2013 campaign without all 5 of their top pass catchers from the previous season. Add that they required rookie WRs Aaron Dobson and Kembrell Tompkins to take on major roles in the offense as rookies (never a good idea in the NFL ..it usually requires at least one year for WRs to "get it") AND their main pass catching back (and the only viable replacement for Woodhead) Shane Vareen was on the IR. Clearly, all of this was a bit much for Brady and the passing game to overcome, and as a result they slipped from one of the top passing teams to middle-of-the-road.
But the situation looks much better in 2013 because:
- Gronk is healthy, at least temporarily and Wright should help at TE
- Dobson and Thompkins should improve with a year of experience
- All of the WRs from last year should be more in sync with Brady after a full year of experience together.
- Vareen is back
Some would suggest that there is concern in the offensive line after trading away pro bowl guard Logan Mankins, but others (including me) believe that while Mankins was still a decent NFL guard, age has slowed him a bit and as a result he was a liability in pass protection in 2013. Unquestionably, there are some questions at OL (especially who will play the guard spot vacated by Mankins) in the near-term, but the Patriots are confident that they have a deep and talented group. The potential line of (left to right) Solder, Vollmer, Wendell, Connolly, and Cannon puts their best 3 OL athletes (Solder, Vollmer, And Cannon) into the line-up at the same time, and should eventually overcome any of the short-term issues related to continuity
The Special Teams units (especially kicker Stephen Gostkowski) are also among the NFLs best.
Fearless prediction: The Patriots go 14-2 or 13-3 and win the #1 seed for AFC play-offs, knock off Andrew Luck and Indy in the conference semis, beat Manning and Denver in the AFC conference championship, and finish the job by defeating the Saints in the SB.
Anyone going to Vegas: While the present odds of 7-1 price the Patriots chances of winning the Super Bowl at one in eight (12.5%), I rate this as their best team since the 2002-2005 dynasty (with the possible exception of 2007-08) and figure those odds are more than fair.
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