Saturday, April 27, 2019
Patriots 2019 Post Draft Commentary
Thoughts and Observations regarding the Pats' 2019 draft ....
I'll admit it...I spent too much time thinking about the 2019 NFL draft. I am writing this because I need closure, and to move on with my life. Thanks for indulging me ;)
Given that the Patriots could win #6 with the talent level on last year's team, the message is clear: you can't count this dynasty out until they have been beaten on the field.
Of course, this off-season has not been kind to the Pats. They lost a lot more than they got back in free agency (I included a "backstory of off season" at bottom of this report). Suffice to say, the Patriots really need a big yield from this draft due to the amount of present holes from Free Agency defections and Gronk's retirement. It would seem that the Pats are in big trouble if they don't get at least a few solid contributors from this draft (especially #1 pick N'Keal Henry).
My Post Draft Review:
In short, I LOVE this draft by the Pats. Hard to envision how it could have turned out better (on paper).
The two things that stand out are:
- CHARACTER - At the top of the draft at least, the Pats were able to get guys who were leaders and favorites of their respective coaches. There were several "Just grateful to have a chance / believe in the system and just want to do whatever I can to help the team / excited to get to work" type of interviews to solidify the coaches' recommendations. It's good that the Pats could get these sorts of players AND simultaneously get guys who delivered on the field commensurate with where they were picked (or better).
- FIT - The five guys that I have an opinion on, and are highlighted below, seem to be nearly perfect fits for specific Patriots needs.
1st round / #32 N'KEAL HARRY (WR) Arizona State - With all of the WR depth in this draft, it stood to reason that the Pats were going to wait and use one of the late 2nd or early 3rd round picks to fill this major need. Instead the Pats opted to take the highest guy on their board (and only 2nd WR picked in the whole draft... after undersized "Hollywood" Brown, Kyler Murray's favorite target at Oklahoma).
If the Pats were posting a Help Wanted ad for this job it would have read, "The ideal candidate would have the following attributes":
- First rate character (as mentioned above). Herm Edwards, his college coach, is a big fan
- Elite productivity in college and the ability to start at in-line receiver on Day One in the NFL
- Flexibility to both be a deep threat and to run the whole route tree
- Game breaking potential in the open field (to replace a lot of what Patterson provided last year)
- Physical down field run blocking to support the emerging reliance on the power running game.
It seems improbable that one could find such a guy in any draft (one that checks ALL of the boxes), but that is exactly what Harry is. Amazing! The main knock on him is that he doesn't have elite speed like DK Metcalf, but this isn't a trait that the Pats value highly anyway. Even without breakaway speed, he is a big danger to break one after the catch or by winning contested downfield catches like DeAndre Hopkins (who also doesn't have elite speed).
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): A
2nd round / #45 Joejuan Williams (WR) Vanderbilt - The Pats paid a solid price for Williams in that they gave up a late 3rd rounder, just to move up 11 spots to draft a guy that was the #50 prospect on Mel Kiper's board. However, I am speculating that this will turn out to be a great pick for the Pats and here is why ....
Williams is an unusually big, physical corner (6'4" 211) who can cover in zone and man (especially press coverage). The shortcoming that prevents him from being an elite prospect (and high 1st round pick) is the lack of first rate make up speed, and that means he can be beaten deep if left on an island in man coverage. BUT the Pats already have that shut-down / out on an island corner in All Pro Stephon Gilmore. So why pick this guy so high?
I see this as one of those Belichick "visionary" moves ...where he perceives value and employs it prior to anyone else. One of the major offensive trends of the last 5-10 years has been very athletic Tight Ends becoming a significant part of the passing game. When the chips were down, in the AFC Championship game versus the Chiefs, the Pats had to move their most valuable defensive "chess piece" over to cover Travis Kelce, the most dangerous of this new breed of TEs. Why? He is a match-up nightmare ...too big for the great majority of corners to cover. At 6'1 202 Gilmore is the Patriots' biggest corner (and their biggest defensive back along with Duron Harmon) and so he was the man for the job. While Harmon and Patrick Chung are tough and reliable, neither is an especially effective cover guy.
So enter Williams and his unique skill set / big body (for a corner). While he may not be the best guy in the NFL to cover elite receivers one-on-one, what about bringing him out in all sub packages including "big nickel" (which is often their base defense against opponents with limited running games). Is there are guy who is theoretically better suited to cover these TEs and big possession receivers who lack home run speed? Could this guy become one of the best in the game at a specific role ..and one that is growing in importance? Maybe we will get a test of this in the 2nd half of the year against 2 of the 3 most dangerous pass catching TEs (Kelce and Zach Ertz of Philly). Would the Pats dare give him some snaps opposite JuJu (very big but not elite fast) in the opener against Pittsburgh?
My evaluation includes several assumptions / factors: 1) Williams supposedly had a long meeting in NE including a film session with Bill ..they must have really liked what they learned about him (to move up aggressively) 2) Bill has guessed right (and I have guessed right about Bill guessing right) that this guy may be a very valuable contributor ..just not in the way that you would figure that a highly rated corner would contribute (as shut down corner). 3) Very slight downgrade for draft capital expended to move up and draft this guy
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): A-
3rd round / #77 Chase Winovich (DE) Michigan
Mel Kiper's #44 prospect, the Pats let him drop all the way to #77 despite what seems to be a really good match for their system. This turns a good pick into a great pick.
It's hard to see Winovich and not make the immediate comparison to Rob Ninkovitch. Both Big 10 guys, both undersized DEs:
Winovich - Much faster, quicker, more productive in college
Ninkovitch - Much more disciplined, efficient executor of Bill's vision for DE in 4-3
The present Pats could really use peak Rob Ninkovitch. If Bill can teach Winovich to play more under control and execute the gameplan, then he has a higher ceiling. Maybe also has value similar to his doppleganger Clay Matthews as a pass rusher from the 2nd level given his similar speed and excellent hand technique?
He slipped in the draft due to questions regarding him having a high ceiling as a classic 4-3 edge rusher. Pats don't care as much about this ...as they generally use their ends differently anyway. He seems like another amazing fit.
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): A+
3rd round / #87 Damien Harris (RB) Alabama
Pats (incorrectly) perceived to be well set in backfield prior to draft. However, if the Pats are going to continue their successful playoff trend of leaning on the power running game, then there will be a lot of tough yards to be made between the tackles this year. History shows that running backs counted on to play a "bell-cow" role in such a running attack rarely make it through the regular season AND a deep playoff run without obvious signs of wear along the way (a similar issue with Todd Gurley arguably cost the Rams the Super Bowl). Hence, the Pats needed someone to take a solid chunk of these tough yards carries so that Sony Michel still has something left in the tank when it matters. Given his injury history and profile, Burkhead alone can't be counted on to shoulder that load. Then what? Bolden? Doesn't seem ideal.
Enter one Damien Harris. He does not seem like an elite prospect or a threat to win Rookie of the Year, but he fits this specific need perfectly. He is a bruising, between the tackles runner who was very productive in college ...but because Saban spreads the carries among multiple backs, he still has "tread left on the tires" In addition,to being able to gain the tough years, he also practices first rate ball security (0 fumbles in 172 touches senior year) ...which is obviously the highest priority for a Patriots back.
Fits a specific Patriots need very well. Good, but not spectacular, pick.
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): B
4th Round / #133 Jarrett Stidham QB Auburn
This video is made by a young QB who is a very astute observer of QB play (I highly recommend):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USCQIDX38Hk&list=PLbA9kEBowLYyvaeJWFN-avnEn4wCYbmr_&index=5
The majority of my opinions are contained therein, but to further elaborate:
Strengths:
- Low interception rate. Two year career as starter: 11 interceptions in 739 passing attempts (That in arguably the best defensive division / conference, the SEC West).
- Had success as a junior losing only to (at the time): #3 Clemson, #6 Georgia, #10 UCF and LSU. Beat #1 (and eventual champs) Alabama and #2 Georgia. Was Heisman trophy candidate coming into 2018 season.
Issues:
- In contrast to top picks Murray (Oklahoma) and Haskins (Ohio State) who played for coaches with first rate offensive minds, in pro type schemes, and with lots of receiving weapons, Stidham did not go through a program that prepped him well for the pros and he is definitely not presently prepared to play in the NFL.
Fortunately, in the case of the Patriots, his year #1 has close to zero value (with Brady taking all of the snaps) and near zero value for year 2 (assuming Brady sticks around at least until then). Therefore, let's say he has 2 years to learn, at least, before being thrown to the wolves. One would think that a lot of improvement could happen between now and then if he is the goods.
My personal evaluation (as a developmental QB, aiming to start year #3 soonest):
I don't like this QB class much for the Pats. Of the day 2-3 guys ...
DREW LOCK just doesn't seem to have the head to be a good NFL QB despite arm strength.
WILL GRIER and RYAN FINLEY both seem to have arm limitations and may be close to their ceilings already
However, one can visualize conditions under which JARRETT STIDHAM could improve dramatically. He is going to need to learn to play QB in an NFL offense ...but he has time. He seems to have his head on squarely, and his arm and mechanics seem to be adequate. So given the Pats have a need and excess draft capital ...why not take a shot with him?
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): B+
.................................................
OTHER PICKS:
3rd round / Yodny Cajuste / OT West Virginia - No opinion except Pats desperately need OT depth. Good for need. Hopefully coach Scar can spin his magic once again.
4th round / Hjalte Froholdt / OG Arkansas - No opinion
5th round / Byron Cowart / DT Maryland - No opinion except is presently a position of need and he was an elite prospect out of high school who admittedly got cocky and didn't work so hard early on. Maybe he will bust his ass in productive environment and return to a high level? Worth noting that they traded up a bit to get this guy.
5th round / Jake Bailey / P Stanford - Traded up to get a punter? A right footed punter? In the 5th round? Interesting. Positives besides his excellent leg: He can get the ball off very quickly and avoid blocks. Can kick-off (a weakness for the Pats recently). Best of all, Bill gets to do some talking about his favorite subject ...punters. What fun ...punter talk!! Oh yeah, his cover photo has him with his shoelaces up near his face... making him look very similar to a young Ray Guy. Did the Pats draft the next Ray Guy? Bill's blood is pumping.
7th round / Ken Webster / CB Ole Miss - Unearthing useful corners from the depths of the draft and the undrafted is a strength of the Pats brain trust. Let's hope they strike gold again.
............................
BACKSTORY OF OFF-SEASON
BIG losses:
- TRENT BROWN held down the LT spot as well as anyone could have hoped (and thus got PAID)
- TREY FLOWERS one of the two big impact players on "d" along with Gilmore
- GRONK (we probably need him to come out of retirement mid-season to win #7)
Meaningful losses:
- MALCOLM BROWN had a good year and a better playoffs (and SB). Solid DT contributor
- CORDARRELLE PATTERSON made lots of small contributions (KR, back-up RB in a pinch, effective jet sweep / bubble screens) that in aggregate were a meaningful contribution
- LaADRIAN WADDLE didn't do much in 2018, but was an important 2017 fill-in when Marcus Cannon, and later Cameron Fleming, went down. This loss made them dangerously thin at OT in the short-term
Other considerations:
DANNY SHELTON remains unsigned. Would be good to have him back in run stuffing role. Even better Ndamukong Suh is still out there. This seems like #1 guy the Pats would be targeting after the May 7th compensatory free agent deadline (They don't want to sign an impact free agent before that, because it cut into the haul of compensatory picks that they will get as a result of their net losses in 2019 Free Agency
CHRIS HOGAN can't be considered a meaningful loss because the Pats basically let him go (signed a reportedly inexpensive one year deal with Carolina). One would have thought that Hogan would have forward looking value for Pats, but management felt otherwise ...and those guys seem to be decent decision makers.
.......
BIG additions:
MICHAEL BENNETT ...let's hope he can play for the Patriots like he played against the Patriots in prior meetings (does he have enough left in the tank at age 33?)
Others:
AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS is what he is at this point in his career. Best you can hope for is below average performer as an NFL starter ...but that is best they can hope for.
DEMARYIUS THOMAS is on the decline and no longer a solid #1 or #2 receiver. Potentially solid fill in for depth once he returns, and reportedly good teammate / mentor
MIKE PENNEL is someone I am not familiar with. Didn't notice him in contests versus the Jets. Maybe solid depth
Returning from Injury:
ISAIAH WYNN had better be a starting level NFL Left Tackle or that could be a problem. Also, difficult injury to recover from (Achilles tear) and there is little known about the current state of his re-hab
JA'WHAUN BENTLEY was a BEAST last year. Can't wait for him to come back. Looks like Pro Bowl potential. Should be major contributor.
Monday, January 28, 2019
All things Patriots prior to 2019 Superbowl....
Well, here we are again. Consider me among those who had left the Pats for dead in September (for me the final blow was losing promising LB Ja'Whaun Bentley for the year). At that point, I considered them too old, slow, and thin to compete for a championship. However, something miraculous transpired between then and now ...the Patriots suffered ZERO important injuries (in terms of losing guys to IR for playoffs). ZERO! This has to be the healthiest run of a veteran team in recent memory. It's as if the Gods of the Gridiron have conspired against all odds to get Bill and Brady a 6th ring and cement them as the greatest dynasty in the history of American sports.
Below are some of the correspondences to friends during the 2019 playoffs (for those who can't get enough Pats talk / analysis before this monumental game). Enjoy!
Quick take on Super Bowl match-up with The Rams on the day after the conference championships:
Offense:
1) Despite using personnel (3WR) that usually "spreads" the formation, the Rams often line up in a tight formation leaving a lot of room between the outside guy and sideline on both sides. All 11 players will frequently be bunched in only 40%-ish of the field. This leaves a lot of space on the perimeter for the Rams to isolate their playmakers in space, and this is the main innovation of their offense.
2) The 90s Broncos Zone running game. They will bunch the formation, then sometimes "stretch" you horizontally once the play starts while the RB will look for the "one cut" into the hole that opens as the stretching occurs ...often to a cut-back lane. Discipline in sliding over laterally but "staying in lanes / gaps" is crucial to defending this running style.
NOTE: In the Saints game, the Rams used a lot of "12" personnel (double TE) for the first time that I've seen, especially running with the FAT BACK (CJ Anderson) and mostly in the 2nd half.
Some things they like to do:
1) Run the aforementioned "stretch" play
2) Run a guy in motion and race him across towards the open space near the opposite sideline and then get him the ball there with lots of room to operate
3) Ditto with motion but jet sweep where the guy who takes it is in a footrace towards the empty space. (very similar to Pats here, but often with more space for runner)
4) Run lots of pick plays in the congestion created by the bunching, especially on the two receiver side (which often also has a TE). The bunch is more frequently on the right side.
5) Run crossers where the target ends up going through the defense and out the other side (since he is lined up in tight) and will catch the ball headed into space near sideline.
6) Run that "in and out" route that Edelman loves, and towards the space out near the sideline.
7) Give "sell-out" run action one way (complete with pulling linemen) and run Goff on a naked bootleg the other way having receiver(s) run into the empty space in front of him.
8) Run deep square-in ...maybe 15 yards.
A couple of things I would consider doing to defend them:
1) NEVER let Goff break contain to the right and roll into that empty space....their passing game is most dangerous when this happens. (Also prefer him not to escape to the left, but he seems slightly less effective rolling that way). This seems like something that Bill would make a high priority.
2) Jam Brandin Cooks when he lines up on the line of scrimmage. Similarly, I assume that Bill is all over this one as he has tons of experience and game tape from last year where Cooks got manhandled by aggressive press coverage while a Patriot. Note: I wouldn't be surprised if Rams make a plan to potentially counter this (if pressing is effective) by backing Cooks off the line and putting him in motion more than they usually do to prevent the press
MY KEYS TO THE GAME:
1) The Rams DTs, especially Aaron Donald versus Pats O-Line. He seems like the Pats worst defensive nightmare. The one consistent key to beating Brady over the years has been to "knock him off the spot" with a basic 4 man pass rush and prevent him from getting comfortable and properly striding into his throws. The Giants effectively collapsed the pocket in the middle in both Super Bowl wins as underdogs. This game could be a repeat of that as Donald is one of the best interior pass rushers in the history of the game. The interior of the Pats line (Thuney / Andrews / Mason) will be tested, for sure.
The good news in this is that I consider Shaq Mason to be one of the NFL's most underrated players and one of the top guards in the league (Pro Football Focus agrees with me and named him the All-Pro RG this year). Intuitively he seems well suited to deal with Donald's extreme power and low center of gravity. Thuney and Andrews have also had good years. This may be the place where this game is decided. I expect Donald to line up primarily in the gaps next to Thuney and avoid Shaq as much as possible.
2) Brady's ability to get into comfortable rhythm. See above point. If Brady can't set his feet and step through throws he is a different QB. His "pocket presence" and ability to sidestep interior rushers to find a safe zone figures to be a key to the passing game in this one. If Brady can play with the comfort that we saw against KC (the 2018 NFL sack leaders) the Pats figure to win ring #6.
3) Todd Gurley Clearly he hasn't been his best self after re-aggravating the knee injury. The explosiveness just hasn't been there in the play-offs and it seems to have messed with his confidence and concentration On his "A" game, he would be a big, big problem for the Patriots ...an athletic, dual threat pass catching back. Kareem Hunt killed the Pats in their two meetings. NFL afterthoughts Damien Williams and Jaylen Samuels both made significant contributions as 3rd stringers forced to take the lead role versus the Pats.
FAT BACK CJ Anderson has performed admirably in his stead, consistently picking up tough yards between the hash marks, but he is neither a huge pass catching threat nor does he have the speed to be dangerous on the perimeter or at the 2nd level. Against New Orleans, Anderson got the majority of touches (Gurley was almost exclusively a decoy in the last 3 quarters). I think a repeat of this would be very good for the Patriots chances. Rams fans will be hoping that the extra 2 weeks will help Gurley's knee to heal further and allow a return close to his top form. (Late addition: Maybe the huge move in the betting line suggest that the "smart money" thinks that Gurley will be a limited factor?)
4) Wade Phillips The last time that the Patriots failed to reach the Super Bowl, Phillips was the architect of the attacking defense that consistently got to, and rattled, Brady and held the Pats to only 18 points (and subsequently held Carolina to 10 in the Super Bowl). He is a worthy adversary for Brady and McDaniels. The good news for the Pats is that coach Scar has returned to lead the O-line and the personnel this time around is highly superior to that of the 2016 AFC championship. Cannon is back as is a much improved Shaq Mason. In addition, 2016 featured Vollmer who was a bit out of place at LT, a back-up LG in Josh Kline, and Bryan Stork who was beaten out at Center by David Andrews the next year. This group of Brown/Thuney/Andrews/Mason/Cannon seems like a huge improvement over the one from 3 years ago.
The main similarity between the Patriots and Rams:
The Pats and Rams have had the two healthiest O-Lines in the NFL this season (in terms of % plays by original starters) and as a result have arguably the best O-lines at present largely due to continuity
A commentary on Bill as GM:
Random thought on a factor that i've never heard mentioned ....would be interesting to do a quant study on this: In what personnel area do the Patriots excel year-after-year? Not the draft (although all other dynasties in SB era drafted exceptional core teams across the board). Rather, Bill's strength has been the lack of "dead cap" or contracts that count against the salary cap where the player is not contributing (often has left team entirely). How many big contracts can you think of that the Patriots have had to eat for poor performance or injury? Bill has a knack for not signing bad long term deals,
As of now Patriots 2019 "dead cap" for guys no longer with the team is less than $600k !! By contrast, the same # for the Bills in 2018 was well over $60 million. That bodes well for Pats chances at remaining competitive next year despite the aging of the core (although they'd better retain Flowers, he seems essential)
Also, the one year "prove it" deal under market in the NFL has to be the best value in sports in that you have both a healthy body and a cheap salary...and no chance to get stuck with "dead cap" for years to come. Bill has been the master of this. Would be interesting to see a list of these guys for Pats over the years, especially on defense. Revis is obviously the gold standard but there are lots of others like Chris Long who made solid contributions.
Some quick thoughts after watching Pats-Chiefs game film:
- Forgotten in the post game euphoria ... Brady missed a bunch of easy throws, and could have easily had 3 interceptions.
- The play call and execution on that first quarter interception by Reggie Ragland in the end zone was almost as bad as the Marshawn Lynch debacle. The Pats marched down the field twice by running the ball straight down KC's throat, and then on 3rd and goal inside the 1 yard line they run a pass into the teeth of the defense, and Brady throws into heavy coverage? If you are going to pass in that situation instead of run it again (or 2 more times including 4th down) then it has to be a total run sell with somebody like an unused tight end sneaking off uncovered. That INT completely changed the complexion of that game.
- I've come to the late season conclusion that the unsung hero on this team (and the AFC play-off MVP on defense) is Kyle Van Noy. He is what Hightower used to be. Made a ton of plays on Sunday. Flowers also shined (as usual)
- The O-line was insanely good. Brady did whatever he wanted to in addition to the first half run dominance. Shaq Mason is the best Patriots guard since John Hannah. If he blocks you then you stay blocked. He is also one of the very best at pulling and leading the play in space.
On the Eve of "The Last Stand" .... commentary prior to Divisional Round versus the Chargers:
Seems to me that, despite all the shortcomings of this team, there is a potential road to the Super Bowl now ....
Thinking back to the draft, it seemed fairly certain that Bill had decided "Brady is old and Gronk is old (the idea of Bill shopping him in off-season certainly makes more sense in retrospect ) and it's difficult to see this team winning by going up-and-down the field by passing almost exclusively,"
....so they draft a mauler OT (or probably OG) and an RB in the first round, they keep (don't cut...although that may be for dead cap reasons) their arguably overpaid run blocking TE Allen, and they give an extension to FB Develin. Potential Conclusion: When the chips are down this (last?) time around, maybe Bill (and Josh) are planning to use the run as their primary strategy ...and try to throw off play action and out of favorable down / distance scenarios?
It's interesting to look back at the run / pass breakdown of the offense from last 5 years:
SEASON PASS PLAY % & NFL RANK LAST 3 GAME PASS%
2014 Won SB Seattle (16th 59.59%) (61.76%)
2015 Lost Conf Denver (3rd 65.00%) (68.98%)
2016 Won SB Atlanta (27th 56.41%) (65.80%)
2017 Lost SB Philly (10th 59.78%) (68.08%)
2018 This Year (26th 55.45% (50.26% ...but these are regular season)
They went through the year in 2016-17 running a disproportionate amount of the time, but abandoned that in the playoffs and SB. In fact, in all of the last 3 years, they relied almost exclusively on the pass in the playoffs.
OK back to the point ...so while there is no predicting the outcome of an NFL season, especially given injuries, let's say that Bill felt pre-season that the the most likely outcome was exactly the one that has presented itself ...the Pats are going to need to run it to advance. Could the situation have possibly shaped up any better?
- Could one have expected the "d" to have played much better with basically the same personnel?
- Could one have hoped that the Pats would have incurred NO significant injuries to non rookies?
- Could one have hoped for better than a sub-freezing game against a So-Cal team that is racking up frequent flyer miles at an unprecedented rate for January?
- Could one have imagined in their wildest dream that the dominant AFC team would have one of the historically worst run "d's?"
So I guess on this basis ..the Pats are right where they wanted to be? Could it have worked out much better?
Anyway those are my (potentially delusional) pre-game thoughts / hopes. For THIS team to go to the SB ....that would be something indeed.
Seis Loco Chicas
On Saturday evening I was settled into a good rhythm in my writing. While my neighbor and friend Kathia, a masseuse at the nearby yoga and wellness resort, had previously discussed going downtown to the disco, I was content to stay home and make the most of the productive state that I found myself in.
At 7:30PM, I got a call from Kathia, actually a call to my landlord who then ran the phone over to my space. Was I ready? Her girlfriends and I were driving to a small town in the countryside for some Latin style dancing (as opposed to the reggaeton downtown). Despite my protests of working, and not wanting to make a long night of it, the decision was made. The girls were going dancing and I was coming. Period. I was reluctantly granted a half hour to tie up the loose ends in my output from that day, and then off we went.
I jumped on the back of Kathia's motorcyle and we drove over the rolling hills that connect Montezuma and Cobano. The road was mostly loose dirt that would turn into a cloud of dust with every passing car, and Kathia was concerned that her make-up job was turning into a dust mask.
When we arrived in Cobano, we picked up Kathia's car and her two friends and headed off to Coyote. Google maps has the directions as 39 kilometers and an hour and twenty minutes over "unnamed roads" which are uncharted by google. We drove in total darkness over badly washboarded roads. Kathia's small two wheel drive utility vehicle has seen a lot of wear and complained loudly and hesitated when we would climb hills. It sounded like a ball joint or something similar was ready to give out at any moment, but on we went until we reached a river that was running across the road and was obviously uncrossable, and we were forced to backtrack for the 30 minutes or so to Cobano to pick another road and start again.
In town, we met another carload of girls and together we embarked on a second attempt to cross the uncharted expanse. Again very bad, remote dirt roads. Not a car or a light of any form for very long stretches. We came to another river, sized up the prospects, and then drove over the optimal crossing path. Another river, another crossing. Several times I had serious doubts about whether we could actually get across, especially the 2nd vehicle which was a small sedan and lower to the ground than ours. However, any questions to me of whether it was wise to attempt a crossing, in the middle of nowhere with no telephone service or prospects for roadside assistance, were purely rhetorical ...the girls were going dancing, period, and nothing that I could say could overcome their unwavering determination.
Finally, two hours later we miraculously reached our destination. A mini fairgrounds in the middle of nowhere with a soccer field as a parking lot and a giant open air structure which was simply a corrugated roof supported by large cement pillars. Carnival style food vendors lined the entrance side and inside a live Latin band played loud music over a modern sound system. Four dancing male singers across the front of the stage with drums, bass, percussion, trombone, and a keyboard player with out-of-date synth sounds. The giant, concrete slab dance floor (with a capacity of a couple thousand if packed in tight) was sparsely populated with couples. Later the girls would bemoan the declining popularity of traditional Spanish music, and scenes like this that were a throwback to another time.
My group of six pretty, sharply dressed young ladies of ages roughly 24 to 32, settled in the back, and an interesting assortment of guys, old and young, politely approached and led them onto the dance floor one by one and for one song at a time. While I usually am very comfortable in the dancehall, here I was a bit out of my element. I know little about the various styles of latin dance, and that way of moving to music doesn't come naturally to me, so I was content to linger at the back with the girls who weren't dancing and observe the scene.
Since we arrived late, we only caught the last 5 or 6 songs of the band, and the dancing part of the night had barely gotten started before coming to an abrupt end. While several of the male dancing partners made pitches about where we might go to continue the festivities (all of them far away), after having a quick bite to eat the determination among my posse to have fun suddenly turned into a resignation to get back to homebase and call it a night.
I guess it's worth mentioning that among the hundreds present at the fairgrounds, I was the only "gringo." As we walked to the car, a guy with a giant straw hat looked at me, and the girls, and yelled "Hey Gringo" with a big smile. I smiled back.
Since we were uncertain about the best way to return to Cobano (retracing our steps was not a great option due to the road quality and the rivers), we joined a small caravan headed south on a 3rd route through "unnamed roads". The first river crossing, which required an abrupt swing to the right before an arcing return to the left to catch the other bank, was fairly uneventful. However, on the second crossing, the sedan bottomed out and lodged itself in the rocky riverbed.
.......
Interesting reflection: My second priority on this trip (aside from my writing) has been to ramp up my Satipatthana meditation, both in terms of practice and learning. This was essential in getting me in the right state to write (since my main character is a dedicated practitioner) and was aided by my isolation here in Costa Rica. Anyway, something Yuttadhammo Bhikku said in one of his instructional videos resonated with me ...that is (paraphrased) to embrace "sati" means to change one's way of thinking and abandon the habit of forming opinions. Makes sense. However, I find myself firmly entrenched in the world of opinions. My (former) career was defined by forming opinions. In the last couple of weeks, I have done a fair amount of reflection about whether I need to think about aggressively weening myself off of this tendency (after the Super Bowl, of course ;)
So it was interesting to observe the reaction of the caravan members (including several more vehicles of guys and girls) once it was determined that the car was stuck. Everybody had an opinion, and eight or so people were talking at once trying to demonstrate the superiority of their opinion. The only problem was, nobody had spent any time to properly diagnose the problem ...that is except Sophia who handled the sight of her rental car stuck in the river with surprising grace. We dug out all the rocks under the bumper and still found the car firmly stuck. Then we went around and used the flashlight of her phone to look into the wheel well, and found that the actual frame of the car was dug into the riverbed. Clearly, we were going to have to lift the frame off of the ground to have any chance at getting out. The girls (in their Saturday night clothes and bare feet) and I tried to lift the front of the car off the ground, but they weren't quite strong enough to budge it, and it remained stuck.
Throughout the process, a series of (drunk?) guys manifested the "get out of the way. this is some guy shit" vibe and then got in the car and revved the engine and spun the front wheels (FWD) digging the car in slightly deeper with every subsequent effort, while also turning the steering wheel so the wheels were at least at a 45 degree angle from straight. (In their defense, I guess none of the guys had ever gotten their car stuck in the snow before).
Kathia returned from her mission with a thick rope to tie to a big pickup truck. This is clearly what we needed ...but some of the guys remained entrenched in the idea of driving the car out of the hole (still nobody else had looked extensively at the actual problem). Against our advice to straighten the wheel and leave it in neutral while the truck pulled the rear and we tried to lift the front end, the newest "driver" of the stuck car hit the gas with maximum ferocity, and thrashed the wheel around throwing rocks in all directions (while I yelled "NO! NO! NO!") and sending me backwards into the river, now completely soaked as opposed to only partially soaked.
For the nth time I told Sophia, "We need three big guys to lift the front." and she answered "I keep telling them, but they don't want to.," and I replied, "Well we are just going to sit here stuck until they decide that they want to."
About 10 minutes later, after another round of 4 or 5 people talking at once I shouted "STOP STOP everybody STOP TALKING", and calmly told them that the frame was stuck in the bottom and that no amount of force could help us if the two biggest guys didn't help me lift the frame off of the ground from the front (this was translated by Sophia). Finally, they decided to try this, and with great effort we lifted the car off the frame and rolled it out of the hole ... with Sophia in the driver's seat this time.
(The reason that I described that part of the story in detail is that it made a profound impression on me about the nature of opinions...given my reflections of late).
So with the car out of the river and back to the original shore, there was a unanimous consensus that it was probably unwise to try this a 2nd time, and so we chose the safer option of taking the best possible roads home ... unfortunately the backtracking and circuitous route meant a total of over 3 hours to travel less than 20 miles as the crow flies (and yes, I now have a heightened appreciation for decent roads and bridges)
On the car ride home, the girls apologized and laughed about what happens when you get caught up with "Seis loco chicas" although they added...at least you have an interesting story for your friends back home, and I told them that some day I would write down this story and call it "Seis Loco Chicas" and this was the running joke for the car ride home (which ended well after sunrise) ...the story of seis loco chicas.
At 7:30PM, I got a call from Kathia, actually a call to my landlord who then ran the phone over to my space. Was I ready? Her girlfriends and I were driving to a small town in the countryside for some Latin style dancing (as opposed to the reggaeton downtown). Despite my protests of working, and not wanting to make a long night of it, the decision was made. The girls were going dancing and I was coming. Period. I was reluctantly granted a half hour to tie up the loose ends in my output from that day, and then off we went.
I jumped on the back of Kathia's motorcyle and we drove over the rolling hills that connect Montezuma and Cobano. The road was mostly loose dirt that would turn into a cloud of dust with every passing car, and Kathia was concerned that her make-up job was turning into a dust mask.
When we arrived in Cobano, we picked up Kathia's car and her two friends and headed off to Coyote. Google maps has the directions as 39 kilometers and an hour and twenty minutes over "unnamed roads" which are uncharted by google. We drove in total darkness over badly washboarded roads. Kathia's small two wheel drive utility vehicle has seen a lot of wear and complained loudly and hesitated when we would climb hills. It sounded like a ball joint or something similar was ready to give out at any moment, but on we went until we reached a river that was running across the road and was obviously uncrossable, and we were forced to backtrack for the 30 minutes or so to Cobano to pick another road and start again.
In town, we met another carload of girls and together we embarked on a second attempt to cross the uncharted expanse. Again very bad, remote dirt roads. Not a car or a light of any form for very long stretches. We came to another river, sized up the prospects, and then drove over the optimal crossing path. Another river, another crossing. Several times I had serious doubts about whether we could actually get across, especially the 2nd vehicle which was a small sedan and lower to the ground than ours. However, any questions to me of whether it was wise to attempt a crossing, in the middle of nowhere with no telephone service or prospects for roadside assistance, were purely rhetorical ...the girls were going dancing, period, and nothing that I could say could overcome their unwavering determination.
Finally, two hours later we miraculously reached our destination. A mini fairgrounds in the middle of nowhere with a soccer field as a parking lot and a giant open air structure which was simply a corrugated roof supported by large cement pillars. Carnival style food vendors lined the entrance side and inside a live Latin band played loud music over a modern sound system. Four dancing male singers across the front of the stage with drums, bass, percussion, trombone, and a keyboard player with out-of-date synth sounds. The giant, concrete slab dance floor (with a capacity of a couple thousand if packed in tight) was sparsely populated with couples. Later the girls would bemoan the declining popularity of traditional Spanish music, and scenes like this that were a throwback to another time.
My group of six pretty, sharply dressed young ladies of ages roughly 24 to 32, settled in the back, and an interesting assortment of guys, old and young, politely approached and led them onto the dance floor one by one and for one song at a time. While I usually am very comfortable in the dancehall, here I was a bit out of my element. I know little about the various styles of latin dance, and that way of moving to music doesn't come naturally to me, so I was content to linger at the back with the girls who weren't dancing and observe the scene.
Since we arrived late, we only caught the last 5 or 6 songs of the band, and the dancing part of the night had barely gotten started before coming to an abrupt end. While several of the male dancing partners made pitches about where we might go to continue the festivities (all of them far away), after having a quick bite to eat the determination among my posse to have fun suddenly turned into a resignation to get back to homebase and call it a night.
I guess it's worth mentioning that among the hundreds present at the fairgrounds, I was the only "gringo." As we walked to the car, a guy with a giant straw hat looked at me, and the girls, and yelled "Hey Gringo" with a big smile. I smiled back.
Since we were uncertain about the best way to return to Cobano (retracing our steps was not a great option due to the road quality and the rivers), we joined a small caravan headed south on a 3rd route through "unnamed roads". The first river crossing, which required an abrupt swing to the right before an arcing return to the left to catch the other bank, was fairly uneventful. However, on the second crossing, the sedan bottomed out and lodged itself in the rocky riverbed.
.......
Interesting reflection: My second priority on this trip (aside from my writing) has been to ramp up my Satipatthana meditation, both in terms of practice and learning. This was essential in getting me in the right state to write (since my main character is a dedicated practitioner) and was aided by my isolation here in Costa Rica. Anyway, something Yuttadhammo Bhikku said in one of his instructional videos resonated with me ...that is (paraphrased) to embrace "sati" means to change one's way of thinking and abandon the habit of forming opinions. Makes sense. However, I find myself firmly entrenched in the world of opinions. My (former) career was defined by forming opinions. In the last couple of weeks, I have done a fair amount of reflection about whether I need to think about aggressively weening myself off of this tendency (after the Super Bowl, of course ;)
So it was interesting to observe the reaction of the caravan members (including several more vehicles of guys and girls) once it was determined that the car was stuck. Everybody had an opinion, and eight or so people were talking at once trying to demonstrate the superiority of their opinion. The only problem was, nobody had spent any time to properly diagnose the problem ...that is except Sophia who handled the sight of her rental car stuck in the river with surprising grace. We dug out all the rocks under the bumper and still found the car firmly stuck. Then we went around and used the flashlight of her phone to look into the wheel well, and found that the actual frame of the car was dug into the riverbed. Clearly, we were going to have to lift the frame off of the ground to have any chance at getting out. The girls (in their Saturday night clothes and bare feet) and I tried to lift the front of the car off the ground, but they weren't quite strong enough to budge it, and it remained stuck.
Throughout the process, a series of (drunk?) guys manifested the "get out of the way. this is some guy shit" vibe and then got in the car and revved the engine and spun the front wheels (FWD) digging the car in slightly deeper with every subsequent effort, while also turning the steering wheel so the wheels were at least at a 45 degree angle from straight. (In their defense, I guess none of the guys had ever gotten their car stuck in the snow before).
Kathia returned from her mission with a thick rope to tie to a big pickup truck. This is clearly what we needed ...but some of the guys remained entrenched in the idea of driving the car out of the hole (still nobody else had looked extensively at the actual problem). Against our advice to straighten the wheel and leave it in neutral while the truck pulled the rear and we tried to lift the front end, the newest "driver" of the stuck car hit the gas with maximum ferocity, and thrashed the wheel around throwing rocks in all directions (while I yelled "NO! NO! NO!") and sending me backwards into the river, now completely soaked as opposed to only partially soaked.
For the nth time I told Sophia, "We need three big guys to lift the front." and she answered "I keep telling them, but they don't want to.," and I replied, "Well we are just going to sit here stuck until they decide that they want to."
About 10 minutes later, after another round of 4 or 5 people talking at once I shouted "STOP STOP everybody STOP TALKING", and calmly told them that the frame was stuck in the bottom and that no amount of force could help us if the two biggest guys didn't help me lift the frame off of the ground from the front (this was translated by Sophia). Finally, they decided to try this, and with great effort we lifted the car off the frame and rolled it out of the hole ... with Sophia in the driver's seat this time.
(The reason that I described that part of the story in detail is that it made a profound impression on me about the nature of opinions...given my reflections of late).
So with the car out of the river and back to the original shore, there was a unanimous consensus that it was probably unwise to try this a 2nd time, and so we chose the safer option of taking the best possible roads home ... unfortunately the backtracking and circuitous route meant a total of over 3 hours to travel less than 20 miles as the crow flies (and yes, I now have a heightened appreciation for decent roads and bridges)
On the car ride home, the girls apologized and laughed about what happens when you get caught up with "Seis loco chicas" although they added...at least you have an interesting story for your friends back home, and I told them that some day I would write down this story and call it "Seis Loco Chicas" and this was the running joke for the car ride home (which ended well after sunrise) ...the story of seis loco chicas.
Thursday, May 3, 2018
Derby thoughts 2018
The Derby favorite JUSTIFY has been on the radar of most serious handicappers since he exploded onto the scene in February. In three undefeated starts, JUSTIFY has run three eye-popping races. Just how fast has he been? Since they started tracking Beyer speed figures in the 80s, no horse has run so fast, so soon, over long distances. He has the look of a horse who wants to run all day, from his impressive gallop out in the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby and morning workouts at SA and Churchill Downs. If he improves in his 4th career start, he will be on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and will be the best horse that I have ever seen at this point in his career.
There are reasons to be skeptical however ....
- The "Curse of Apollo" (You'll certainly hear about this leading up to the race) where no horse who was unraced at 2 has won the Derby since 1882!!
- No horse has ever won the Derby after only 3 career starts
- JUSTIFY has encountered very little trouble in his first three starts. He did beat BOLT D'ORO in the Santa Anita Derby (who otherwise may have been the Derby favorite), but in that race he had an uncontested lead. Otherwise he has beaten little.
So what to think about JUSTIFY? Glass half full or half empty? I'd be inclined to think the former (he has been my "Derby Horse" since February ... but it is a tough decision given that he will be the favorite.)
What made up my mind was this .... at Ladbrokes in the UK, a different horse, MENDELSSOHN, opened as the betting favorite leaving JUSTIFY as a very fair 9/2 second choice. My man Rick West (who is on the ground there) and I pounced on this immediately. Our British Pounds are on JUSTIFY at the over-inflated price. Strangely, the odds have not corrected themselves yet, and JUSTIFY remains as of this writing (on Thursday morning) the 9/2 second choice. This has the potential to be a rare horse racing arb (it may be possible to bet Justify in England, the rest of the horses in Kentucky, and make a small risk free profit).
My advice to you, if you are inclined to bet JUSTIFY for any considerable sum of $, consider finding a friend or relative in the UK and get the bigger price.
....................
Otherwise, MENDELSSOHN, the favorite in Europe (and the hyped "European Hope") was an extremely expensive yearling ($3 million) has won on three different types of surfaces, and saved his best for his last out, an 18 length romp in the UAE Derby. One factor of note there is that this huge effort was aided by "the mother of all inside speed biases" ... inside front-runners won 16 of the 17 dirt races in the Meydan meet (almost unheard of). Worth noting that the connections here are royalty of horse racing with Coolmore / O'Brien / Moore being among the most highly respected names in the game.
Of course, there are also reasons to be skeptical here:
- No horse stabled in Europe has ever won the Derby. NEVER.
- No horse coming from outside of the Americas prior to the Derby has ever won the Derby.
- Horses coming out of the UAE Derby have performed very poorly in the Kentucky Derby ...never better than 5th.
Obviously, the heavy betting of MENDLESSOHN in Europe suggests that some are hopeful that he will be the one to overcome the above.
MENDELSSOHN looks like a nice horse, but I don't think he can beat JUSTIFY if the latter runs to his potential.
BOLT D'ORO would be a legit Derby favorite in most years. Has never run a bad race, and has faced the best of the best, both this year and last year. His speed figures are on par with a Derby winner. Trouble is he ran into JUSTIFY. He is definitely a threat, but can he beat JUSTIFY on his best? I don't think so.
There are others that also look good. AUDIBLE looked good in winning the Florida Derby (the path of the last 2 Derby winners) and may be the best of a strong Todd Pletcher contingent. MAGNUM MOON is undefeated in 4 starts (another one trying to buck the "Curse of Apollo"). GOOD MAGIC won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and seems to be rounding into form at the right time.
How do I see the race shaping up? .....
#3 PROMISES FULFILLED and #4 FLAMEAWAY both figure to try to get the early lead with the former being the faster of the two. They should head to the turn on the lead. #7 JUSTIFY should be flanking them on the outside and 2nd or 3rd into the turn. It would be best for his chances if none of the jockeys outside of him use their horses to try to beat him around. Mike Smith will do what he can to avoid a horse coming from outside of him and crossing in front of him. JUSTIFY has never had dirt kicked in his face and I wouldn't be too keen on trying that experiment in the Derby. Assuming he gets around 3rd, JUSTIFY will wait as long as possible to make his move because the threats will be behind him, not in front of him. I envision him (in a winning scenario) taking charge towards the final 3rd of the backstretch and then taking firm command into the final turn.
This Derby is a star studded cast ... one of the best that I have ever seen. However, intuitively I think that this is JUSTIFY's race to win or lose. Therefore at 9-2 (at this price you need 2 winners in 11 races to break even) he is a bit of a no-brainer for me. Is the Kentucky Derby "too much, too soon" for him? We'll see on Saturday.
There are reasons to be skeptical however ....
- The "Curse of Apollo" (You'll certainly hear about this leading up to the race) where no horse who was unraced at 2 has won the Derby since 1882!!
- No horse has ever won the Derby after only 3 career starts
- JUSTIFY has encountered very little trouble in his first three starts. He did beat BOLT D'ORO in the Santa Anita Derby (who otherwise may have been the Derby favorite), but in that race he had an uncontested lead. Otherwise he has beaten little.
So what to think about JUSTIFY? Glass half full or half empty? I'd be inclined to think the former (he has been my "Derby Horse" since February ... but it is a tough decision given that he will be the favorite.)
What made up my mind was this .... at Ladbrokes in the UK, a different horse, MENDELSSOHN, opened as the betting favorite leaving JUSTIFY as a very fair 9/2 second choice. My man Rick West (who is on the ground there) and I pounced on this immediately. Our British Pounds are on JUSTIFY at the over-inflated price. Strangely, the odds have not corrected themselves yet, and JUSTIFY remains as of this writing (on Thursday morning) the 9/2 second choice. This has the potential to be a rare horse racing arb (it may be possible to bet Justify in England, the rest of the horses in Kentucky, and make a small risk free profit).
My advice to you, if you are inclined to bet JUSTIFY for any considerable sum of $, consider finding a friend or relative in the UK and get the bigger price.
....................
Otherwise, MENDELSSOHN, the favorite in Europe (and the hyped "European Hope") was an extremely expensive yearling ($3 million) has won on three different types of surfaces, and saved his best for his last out, an 18 length romp in the UAE Derby. One factor of note there is that this huge effort was aided by "the mother of all inside speed biases" ... inside front-runners won 16 of the 17 dirt races in the Meydan meet (almost unheard of). Worth noting that the connections here are royalty of horse racing with Coolmore / O'Brien / Moore being among the most highly respected names in the game.
Of course, there are also reasons to be skeptical here:
- No horse stabled in Europe has ever won the Derby. NEVER.
- No horse coming from outside of the Americas prior to the Derby has ever won the Derby.
- Horses coming out of the UAE Derby have performed very poorly in the Kentucky Derby ...never better than 5th.
Obviously, the heavy betting of MENDLESSOHN in Europe suggests that some are hopeful that he will be the one to overcome the above.
MENDELSSOHN looks like a nice horse, but I don't think he can beat JUSTIFY if the latter runs to his potential.
BOLT D'ORO would be a legit Derby favorite in most years. Has never run a bad race, and has faced the best of the best, both this year and last year. His speed figures are on par with a Derby winner. Trouble is he ran into JUSTIFY. He is definitely a threat, but can he beat JUSTIFY on his best? I don't think so.
There are others that also look good. AUDIBLE looked good in winning the Florida Derby (the path of the last 2 Derby winners) and may be the best of a strong Todd Pletcher contingent. MAGNUM MOON is undefeated in 4 starts (another one trying to buck the "Curse of Apollo"). GOOD MAGIC won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and seems to be rounding into form at the right time.
How do I see the race shaping up? .....
#3 PROMISES FULFILLED and #4 FLAMEAWAY both figure to try to get the early lead with the former being the faster of the two. They should head to the turn on the lead. #7 JUSTIFY should be flanking them on the outside and 2nd or 3rd into the turn. It would be best for his chances if none of the jockeys outside of him use their horses to try to beat him around. Mike Smith will do what he can to avoid a horse coming from outside of him and crossing in front of him. JUSTIFY has never had dirt kicked in his face and I wouldn't be too keen on trying that experiment in the Derby. Assuming he gets around 3rd, JUSTIFY will wait as long as possible to make his move because the threats will be behind him, not in front of him. I envision him (in a winning scenario) taking charge towards the final 3rd of the backstretch and then taking firm command into the final turn.
This Derby is a star studded cast ... one of the best that I have ever seen. However, intuitively I think that this is JUSTIFY's race to win or lose. Therefore at 9-2 (at this price you need 2 winners in 11 races to break even) he is a bit of a no-brainer for me. Is the Kentucky Derby "too much, too soon" for him? We'll see on Saturday.
Thursday, May 4, 2017
Kentucky Derby 2017
UPDATE 45 minutes before post: Given the current odds, I am going to use Hence. He seems like the best value to me at the price given the track conditions.
Welcome to the annual Derby blog. Since we last convened, the big news in the horseracing world has been Arrogate. In just 4 stakes races, he vaulted himself into the discussion of "Greatest Classic Distance Horse Since the 70's." The Travers / Breeders Cup Classic / Pegasus / Dubai World Cup string is probably the best that I have ever seen. A couple of track records. The dramatic running down of California Chrome from way back in the Breeder's Cup ..in the latter's best career effort by far etc. He is off until late summer, when we'll probably see him again at Del Mar and then in the Breeder's Cup. If he runs back to those efforts again, I think the case will be closed.
Why have I never heard of Arrogate, you ask? Well, he was a late starting 3 year old, not running his first race until weeks before last year's Derby and thus missed the Triple Crown. He did beat the Preakness and Belmont winners in the Travers (won by 13 lengths!) and then C-Chrome (Derby / Preakness winner 2014) in the aforementioned Breeder's Cup race.
On to the Derby ....
So to start, there have been two types of Derbys recently:
1) There is an obvious "superior horse." A potential champion. You feel like if that horse is on his game and gets a good trip, he will win. That simple. In the last decade I see those as
- American Pharoah (who I bet)
- Big Brown (who I also bet)
- California Chrome (who I didn't believe in enough to justify the price at the time)
In the rest of the races I didn't feel (at Derby post time) like there was a potential Triple Crown winner in the bunch. Those races were all won who achieved peak form (for their whole careers!) at exactly this time. Among the other 6 winners since Big Brown ...NONE of them ever got any better...despite the fact that horses in the spring of their 3 year old year generally are still improving and growing into their maturing bodies. There is an old horse racing adage that I haven't heard in quite some time "four year olds beat three year olds" and this reflects that horse often improve to another level at age 4 ...but not in the case of the Derby winners.
THIS YEAR ....I don't see an obvious "superior horse." I would accept suggestions that their are two possibilities ..and we'll discuss them first.
SUPERIOR HORSE?
CLASSIC EMPIRE ran a big figure to win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year and would be head and shoulders above if he could improve on that. The only problem is that I see nothing in his present form that suggests that this will happen. He was sidelined in the middle of the campaign with a hoof abscess and hasn't run very well since. He did win the Arkansas Derby in his last, but that race was unusually slow and he only beat a journeyman horse (Lookin' at Lee ..also in Derby field) by 1&1/2 lengths despite the fact that the latter tried to visit every path on the Oaklawn stretch, running a crazy zig-zag of a pattern home, while ducking in and out of others, probably losing 3 lengths in the process. Based on that tape alone, I'd be more inclined to bet Lookin' at Lee than Classic Empire ...but the former has no other reason in his past performances to consider him. Finally, both DRF Clockers (who are usually spot on in their Derby observations) suggest that Classic Empire looks less than 100% these days, by observations in the morning at Churchill.
So you can speculate that CLASSIC EMPIRE will return to peak form for the Derby and bet him ...but I won't at a relatively short price. PASS.
ALWAYS DREAMING is the most interesting horse in the race. Both clockers are very impressed by his long strides and suggest that his work-out the other day was far and away the best of the contenders. That combined with a very impressive win in his last in the Florida Derby such that it may be possible for him to be a champion. He may be fast enough at longer distances.
However, given that he will probably be a solid favorite, I'm gonna take the "glass half empty" view. First of all, this horse has little experience against top caliber horses ...the Florida Derby was his first stakes race ..and he's had "perfect trips" in all 3 races this year. Almost like he was running in a time trial and granted a lane where he had no impediments to running his fastest possible time. With 20 horses ...things will not be that easy in the Derby. How will he react to adversity. Maybe he'll be fine, but horses with this little seasoning rarely perform to peak in the Derby. This is not a time trial, but rather a crazy 20 horse stampede.
The other knock on ALMOST DREAMING is that he has been extremely unruly in the mornings over the past week or so. He became so difficult to handle that they put special "draw reigns" on him so that he could be more easily managed. Those will come off for the race. So the big question is ... what is going to happen in front of 100,000+ screaming lunatics. If he doesn't react well to that (a distinct possibility) then his chances will be diminished considerably.
So I will also pass on Almost Dreaming. If you want to bet on him as the most likely champion in the group...feel free. My only advice in that regard is if you are going to do this ....wait until 5 minutes before the race. Watch how he behaves up until then. If he is unruly and very difficult to handle, then you might want to reconsider.
NEED TO RUN THEIR BEST RACE (my guess is that the race will be run by a horse who "peaks" at exactly this time in his life)
(Note: I don't have the time to write on all of them ...bur here are some that I thought worthy of consideration).
IRISH WAR CRY - Actually he could be the 3rd in the above group, but he doesn't have the same wow! factor of Almost Dreaming or the class of CLASSIC EMPIRE ...but he does have some of the fastest prep races in the field. He'll probably still have to improve to win, but not out of the question for him to be a champion. There's a lot to like here including Graham Motion, the trainer of our 2011 Derby score (21-1) Animal Kingdom. He is a world class horseman who knows how to prepare horses for big races (one of the few trainers to have a positive Return On Investment (ROI) in Graded Stakes races. Also, his sire is Curlin which suggests that he may take to the long mile and a quarter distance. I may bet this one.
However, there are a couple of negatives regarding Irish War Cry that are worth mentioning. The big one is jockey Rajiv Maragh. Putting him on this horse for this race seems like a tactical error. He has been a consistent underperformer at classic distance stakes races over the years. I have a personal bias against him. Given, it's good that he should be towards the front, and therefore have less chances to make trouble for himself ...I still consider this a negative. Also, the winners of the Wood Memorial have dramatically underperformed over the years. Not sure why. Change in climate? Random chance? Hard to say, but worth noting.
Again, could justify betting this one. At this time, though, I won't. Worth consideration.
So I'm going to toss all of the horses from the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbys (too slow). Girvin looks like a horse that is improving, and he picks up Mike Smith which is a plus ...but I don't think he is ready yet to make a huge leap Ditto for the Santa Anita Derby ...usually one of the strongest Derby preps, but very substandard this year (This eliminates and Battle of Midway and Gormley).
If you are gunning for longshots ...these 2 have an outside shot:
HENCE - A major riddle. Nothing to speak of prior to his last start and then a huge performance where they had to adjust his figure down because it was so out of line with prior races. Interestingly, Irad, who was badly beaten in that race, came back to win the Bluegrass (one of the strongest Derby preps this year). Running style much more suitable to Churchill than Sunland..a plus. Don't know what to think here. May consider at the right price. Also, moves up on wet track as he is one of the few that has won such a race.
TAPWRIT - Both clockers love the way he looks in the morning this week. His Tampa Bay Derby 2 back was very good. I like the jockey (Ortiz) in this sort of spot. Problem is, in the Bluegrass he didn't run a step. Hard to like him over McCraken when the latter had slowed down due to small traffic and Tapwrit pulled up beside him entering the far turn and McCraken just took off and ran away from him. At 20-1+ is definitely worthy of consideration ...only problem is that the love from the clockers may force his price down considerably. Likely to pass at the expected price.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
MCCRAKEN - Mentioned above. This is the one that I want to bet. I think he is most likely among all of them to run his best career race on Derby Day given that 1) The Nafzger / Wilkes team has proven very capable of picking a specific race and getting the horse to peak specifically then. This can be frustrating for bettors who wager on them in preps only to see their horses deliver less than optimal performance (see McCraken in Blue Grass). Anyway, I think that race and the issues that he had in the backstretch will serve him well. 2) That combined with his excellent training over the Churchill strip in the last couple of weeks suggests that he may be peaking at the right time.
Negatives on McCraken include a) he is a "buzz" horse due to his recent training and he may be overbet. In fact, the ML of 5-1 seems too short compared to his previous race record. Also, while jockey Brian Hernandez is not a major negative, he is not first tier either. He killed Mo Tom's chances in the Derby last year when getting him into big trouble at exactly the wrong time (when he was just starting his closing burst). I may eliminate on price consideration. At 8-1 or more, I would probably bet.
GUNNEVERA - This horse's 15-1 morning line looks like a type to me. There are negatives including his lackluster showing in the Florida Derby and his leisurely recent workout (slowest for distance at track that day) BUT this horse was just an odds-on favorite against Almost Dreaming in last, sports the most solid stakes race efforts in the field, has champion classic distance sires all over his pedigree and should appreciate the added distance, has a favorable come-from-behind running style, and a Hall of Fame jockey (although coming from way behind on long races is not his strongest suit.
SUMMARY
So as of now (Thursday Afternoon) I am strongly considering 3 horses. My target prices are roughly 12-1 Gunnevera, 8-1 McCraken, and 25-1 Hence ...if I get better than that on any of them then that will be my likely selection.
If you want further color, I will make an update of this at least 15 minutes before post time on Derby Day to inform you of my final selection
Welcome to the annual Derby blog. Since we last convened, the big news in the horseracing world has been Arrogate. In just 4 stakes races, he vaulted himself into the discussion of "Greatest Classic Distance Horse Since the 70's." The Travers / Breeders Cup Classic / Pegasus / Dubai World Cup string is probably the best that I have ever seen. A couple of track records. The dramatic running down of California Chrome from way back in the Breeder's Cup ..in the latter's best career effort by far etc. He is off until late summer, when we'll probably see him again at Del Mar and then in the Breeder's Cup. If he runs back to those efforts again, I think the case will be closed.
Why have I never heard of Arrogate, you ask? Well, he was a late starting 3 year old, not running his first race until weeks before last year's Derby and thus missed the Triple Crown. He did beat the Preakness and Belmont winners in the Travers (won by 13 lengths!) and then C-Chrome (Derby / Preakness winner 2014) in the aforementioned Breeder's Cup race.
On to the Derby ....
So to start, there have been two types of Derbys recently:
1) There is an obvious "superior horse." A potential champion. You feel like if that horse is on his game and gets a good trip, he will win. That simple. In the last decade I see those as
- American Pharoah (who I bet)
- Big Brown (who I also bet)
- California Chrome (who I didn't believe in enough to justify the price at the time)
In the rest of the races I didn't feel (at Derby post time) like there was a potential Triple Crown winner in the bunch. Those races were all won who achieved peak form (for their whole careers!) at exactly this time. Among the other 6 winners since Big Brown ...NONE of them ever got any better...despite the fact that horses in the spring of their 3 year old year generally are still improving and growing into their maturing bodies. There is an old horse racing adage that I haven't heard in quite some time "four year olds beat three year olds" and this reflects that horse often improve to another level at age 4 ...but not in the case of the Derby winners.
THIS YEAR ....I don't see an obvious "superior horse." I would accept suggestions that their are two possibilities ..and we'll discuss them first.
SUPERIOR HORSE?
CLASSIC EMPIRE ran a big figure to win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year and would be head and shoulders above if he could improve on that. The only problem is that I see nothing in his present form that suggests that this will happen. He was sidelined in the middle of the campaign with a hoof abscess and hasn't run very well since. He did win the Arkansas Derby in his last, but that race was unusually slow and he only beat a journeyman horse (Lookin' at Lee ..also in Derby field) by 1&1/2 lengths despite the fact that the latter tried to visit every path on the Oaklawn stretch, running a crazy zig-zag of a pattern home, while ducking in and out of others, probably losing 3 lengths in the process. Based on that tape alone, I'd be more inclined to bet Lookin' at Lee than Classic Empire ...but the former has no other reason in his past performances to consider him. Finally, both DRF Clockers (who are usually spot on in their Derby observations) suggest that Classic Empire looks less than 100% these days, by observations in the morning at Churchill.
So you can speculate that CLASSIC EMPIRE will return to peak form for the Derby and bet him ...but I won't at a relatively short price. PASS.
ALWAYS DREAMING is the most interesting horse in the race. Both clockers are very impressed by his long strides and suggest that his work-out the other day was far and away the best of the contenders. That combined with a very impressive win in his last in the Florida Derby such that it may be possible for him to be a champion. He may be fast enough at longer distances.
However, given that he will probably be a solid favorite, I'm gonna take the "glass half empty" view. First of all, this horse has little experience against top caliber horses ...the Florida Derby was his first stakes race ..and he's had "perfect trips" in all 3 races this year. Almost like he was running in a time trial and granted a lane where he had no impediments to running his fastest possible time. With 20 horses ...things will not be that easy in the Derby. How will he react to adversity. Maybe he'll be fine, but horses with this little seasoning rarely perform to peak in the Derby. This is not a time trial, but rather a crazy 20 horse stampede.
The other knock on ALMOST DREAMING is that he has been extremely unruly in the mornings over the past week or so. He became so difficult to handle that they put special "draw reigns" on him so that he could be more easily managed. Those will come off for the race. So the big question is ... what is going to happen in front of 100,000+ screaming lunatics. If he doesn't react well to that (a distinct possibility) then his chances will be diminished considerably.
So I will also pass on Almost Dreaming. If you want to bet on him as the most likely champion in the group...feel free. My only advice in that regard is if you are going to do this ....wait until 5 minutes before the race. Watch how he behaves up until then. If he is unruly and very difficult to handle, then you might want to reconsider.
NEED TO RUN THEIR BEST RACE (my guess is that the race will be run by a horse who "peaks" at exactly this time in his life)
(Note: I don't have the time to write on all of them ...bur here are some that I thought worthy of consideration).
IRISH WAR CRY - Actually he could be the 3rd in the above group, but he doesn't have the same wow! factor of Almost Dreaming or the class of CLASSIC EMPIRE ...but he does have some of the fastest prep races in the field. He'll probably still have to improve to win, but not out of the question for him to be a champion. There's a lot to like here including Graham Motion, the trainer of our 2011 Derby score (21-1) Animal Kingdom. He is a world class horseman who knows how to prepare horses for big races (one of the few trainers to have a positive Return On Investment (ROI) in Graded Stakes races. Also, his sire is Curlin which suggests that he may take to the long mile and a quarter distance. I may bet this one.
However, there are a couple of negatives regarding Irish War Cry that are worth mentioning. The big one is jockey Rajiv Maragh. Putting him on this horse for this race seems like a tactical error. He has been a consistent underperformer at classic distance stakes races over the years. I have a personal bias against him. Given, it's good that he should be towards the front, and therefore have less chances to make trouble for himself ...I still consider this a negative. Also, the winners of the Wood Memorial have dramatically underperformed over the years. Not sure why. Change in climate? Random chance? Hard to say, but worth noting.
Again, could justify betting this one. At this time, though, I won't. Worth consideration.
So I'm going to toss all of the horses from the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbys (too slow). Girvin looks like a horse that is improving, and he picks up Mike Smith which is a plus ...but I don't think he is ready yet to make a huge leap Ditto for the Santa Anita Derby ...usually one of the strongest Derby preps, but very substandard this year (This eliminates and Battle of Midway and Gormley).
If you are gunning for longshots ...these 2 have an outside shot:
HENCE - A major riddle. Nothing to speak of prior to his last start and then a huge performance where they had to adjust his figure down because it was so out of line with prior races. Interestingly, Irad, who was badly beaten in that race, came back to win the Bluegrass (one of the strongest Derby preps this year). Running style much more suitable to Churchill than Sunland..a plus. Don't know what to think here. May consider at the right price. Also, moves up on wet track as he is one of the few that has won such a race.
TAPWRIT - Both clockers love the way he looks in the morning this week. His Tampa Bay Derby 2 back was very good. I like the jockey (Ortiz) in this sort of spot. Problem is, in the Bluegrass he didn't run a step. Hard to like him over McCraken when the latter had slowed down due to small traffic and Tapwrit pulled up beside him entering the far turn and McCraken just took off and ran away from him. At 20-1+ is definitely worthy of consideration ...only problem is that the love from the clockers may force his price down considerably. Likely to pass at the expected price.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
MCCRAKEN - Mentioned above. This is the one that I want to bet. I think he is most likely among all of them to run his best career race on Derby Day given that 1) The Nafzger / Wilkes team has proven very capable of picking a specific race and getting the horse to peak specifically then. This can be frustrating for bettors who wager on them in preps only to see their horses deliver less than optimal performance (see McCraken in Blue Grass). Anyway, I think that race and the issues that he had in the backstretch will serve him well. 2) That combined with his excellent training over the Churchill strip in the last couple of weeks suggests that he may be peaking at the right time.
Negatives on McCraken include a) he is a "buzz" horse due to his recent training and he may be overbet. In fact, the ML of 5-1 seems too short compared to his previous race record. Also, while jockey Brian Hernandez is not a major negative, he is not first tier either. He killed Mo Tom's chances in the Derby last year when getting him into big trouble at exactly the wrong time (when he was just starting his closing burst). I may eliminate on price consideration. At 8-1 or more, I would probably bet.
GUNNEVERA - This horse's 15-1 morning line looks like a type to me. There are negatives including his lackluster showing in the Florida Derby and his leisurely recent workout (slowest for distance at track that day) BUT this horse was just an odds-on favorite against Almost Dreaming in last, sports the most solid stakes race efforts in the field, has champion classic distance sires all over his pedigree and should appreciate the added distance, has a favorable come-from-behind running style, and a Hall of Fame jockey (although coming from way behind on long races is not his strongest suit.
SUMMARY
So as of now (Thursday Afternoon) I am strongly considering 3 horses. My target prices are roughly 12-1 Gunnevera, 8-1 McCraken, and 25-1 Hence ...if I get better than that on any of them then that will be my likely selection.
If you want further color, I will make an update of this at least 15 minutes before post time on Derby Day to inform you of my final selection
Friday, January 23, 2015
Patriots Deflate-gate
OK, after digesting the Deflate-gate info for a few days,
here are my observations (based on the limited information available):
-
Contrary to the language of the original reports
by the NFL, I personally don’t believe that the balls were tampered with
between the inspection and the game. If
they were, this would be a clear and serious violation of the rules and my
opinion on this matter would change drastically.
-
What is more likely is that the balls were
inflated in very warm conditions (probably warmer than the locker room) and
then inspected in the warm locker room with the knowledge that the balls would
naturally deflate below league prescribed levels when exposed to colder
temperatures outside. There is a good
chance that this is not the first time this has happened. It is easy to imagine that this has been
going on for some time and therefore the Pats have played other games with under-inflated footballs. as well.
-
This rule of “each team brings its own ball (for
offense)” has been around at many levels of football for quite some time. The reason: teams (especially QBs) want the
ball a certain way and thus are able to use balls that suit their preferences
(without giving one team or the other an unfair advantage by making them use a
football that they find difficult to use).
-
Brady unquestionably knew about this (that the level of inflation was below the prescribed league minimum). He is just too tuned into the small variables
that such a significant under-inflation could go by unnoticed …but again, maybe
this wasn’t unusual because it is standard practice by the Pats in Foxboro on
cold days.
-
If there is any blame to be cast, it is on Brady
for not being candid about this. Again,
he almost surely knows what happened.
-
The handling of this whole affair by the NFL is
embarrassing. Should this be a huge
story … absolutely not. It would be a
surprise if (given the potential change in temperature / weather conditions)
this doesn’t happen at least a handful of times during the regular season
league-wide. I would suspect more,
actually. For the NFL to dive head first
into this and make it a scandal with no data and no basis for comparison is
highly irresponsible.
-
My guess is that this will be “the straw that
broke the camel’s back” and result in the firing of commissioner Roger Goodell. He was treading on thin ice already with the
poor handling of the Ray Rice incident and inconsistencies regarding player
suspensions. Add to this another big
media blunder and the making of a very powerful enemy (in Robert Kraft).…his
days are likely numbered.
I guess the broader question surrounding this is “How much
blame is due to Tom Brady” for knowingly working around the rules. Personally, I don’t think that Brady or the
Patriots technically BROKE the rules, but rather found a convenient and clever
way to get around them. Is this behavior
acceptable … good question and the subject of an interesting debate. Are many successful NFL and College teams
working around the rules when they can gain an advantage by doing so? …I would
say indubitably yes.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
Why the Patriots are poised to win the 2015 Super Bowl ....
Here is my take on why the Patriots are poised to make a serious run at the NFL championship in 2014-15, and should be the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIX:
Summary: The Patriots went 12-4 in 2013 and advanced to the AFC Championship despite a plague of injuries to some of their best players. They begin the 2014 season with no major injuries to report to key contributors. Among those who return:
Vince Wolfork - Multiple all-pro selection. The linchpin of the Patriots run defense. Pats had a very difficult time preventing opposing teams from rushing up the middle after Wolfork went down
Jerod Mayo - The QB of the defense. Another all-pro. Super versatile, athletic linebacker who is perfect for the Belichik style of defense that places a premium on multi-skilled defenders
Rob Gronkowski - Yet another all-pro. Best all-around TE in football when healthy. The key to the offense (especially in the Red Zone) along with Brady.
Sebastian Vollmer - 2nd team all-pro in 2010. Key OL contributor
Shane Vareen - Missed a significant portion of 2013 season (although played in play-offs). When chips are down and Pats need to score, this is the guy they want on the field. On of top 50 / 50 (run / pass) type backs in league.
...................
FACT or FICTION
FICTION: Brady and the offense have carried the Patriots to play-off success and 3 Super Bowls. In the play-offs Brady has posted a solid, but not extraordinary, 87.5 passer rating ...ranking him slightly ahead of contemporaries Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Phillip Rivers. In the 3 Super Bowl wins, his lines are as follows:
2002 St Louis 16 (completions) - 27 (attempts) - 145 (yards) -1 (TD) - 0 (INTs)
2004 Carolina 32-48-354-3-1
2005 Philly 23-33-236-2-0
While these were solid efforts (and the TD-INT ratio of 6-1 is exceptional), they are not the stats of a guy who "carried" his team with the exception of the Carolina game which was one been his best performances ever in a big spot.
In addition, in the last 6 play-off losses (2 to Baltimore, 1 to NYJ, 2 Super Bowls versus NYG, and last year's AFC championship against Denver) the play of Brady and the offense has been mediocre in general, and in the two Baltimore games was sub-par. Brady was rattled by pressure that collapsed the pocket frequently and unable to improvise successfully under difficult conditions.
While the offense has delivered them to the door many times in the Belichick-Brady era, rarely has it put them over the top.
FACT: The performance of the Patriots defense was the key to 2 of the Patriots 3 Super Bowl wins.
In the 2005 Philly game, the Pats turned the Eagles over 4 times, had 4 sacks, and held the Eagles rushing attack to just 45 yards on 17 carries ...forcing McNabb into "must pass" mode and a bunch of turnovers.
In the 2002 St Louis game, the Patriots defense remarkably held one of the best offenses in NFL history, "the greatest show on turf", to a paltry 17 points ..(as compared to a low of 27 points over the prior 8 games), turned the Rams over 3 times, and scored on a "pick 6" by CB Ty Law.
The purpose of this brief history lesson was to demonstrate that in the years when the Patriots were winning Super Bowls, the defense was at least equally important in securing those victories.
THE 2014 PATRIOTS DEFENSE:
In the early 2000s, the Patriots revolutionized the way that teams thought about defense. Central to their success was employing athletic, multi-skilled players like Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi, who could serve in multiple roles (defending the run, rushing the passer, and dropping into coverage). While Bruschi had one of the all-time great NCAA college careers, he slipped to #86 in the NFL draft because he didn't have a clear-cut position in the NFL, but Belichick saw a play-maker who did multiple things well and managed to employ his unique skill set at MLB where he became one of the greatest Patriots defenders. Vrable, similarly, didn't have a stand-out skill in an era that emphasized specialization and was signed from Pittsburgh to a fairly modest free agent contract. Unfortunately, as the Patriots experienced huge success, and Belichick defensive disciples like Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini took over head coaching spots, the NFL started placing a premium on "Bellichick-type" players. As a result, it became far more difficult to find multi-skilled players at LB.
The 2009-2013 Patriots defense bore little resemblance to the successful units of the Super Bowl years. The Patriots lost Vrable to free agency and Bruschi to retirement. The linebacking core went from athletic and versatile to slow and one dimensional. MLBs like an aging Junior Seau and Brandon Spikes were on the extreme slow end of the spectrum for NFL linebackers. With exception of Mayo, Belichick had no "jack-of-all trades" players to keep teams off balance (from a lack of knowing what any of the LBs was going to do on a given play).
Finally, the other primary characteristic that was crucial for the Super Bowl teams was a "shutdown" cornerback. Both Ty Law and Asante Samuel were key players during those years in that role. As one of Belichick's primary defensive goals is to limit the production of the most important weapon on the opposing offense (which is generally a WR), the ability to assign one guy to that role frees up the rest of the defense to do interesting, and unpredictable, things by dictating to the offense as opposed to vice-versa. Also, worth noting that the Super Bowl winning teams featured especially strong secondaries, in general ...while recently this has been a primary weakness for the Patriots and the pass defense has been consistently among the bottom 10 as a result.
Why the 2014 Defense is much closer to the 2002-2005 Super Bowl winning units than the more recent mediocre (or worse) versions:
- For the first time since Samuel left for the Eagles in Free Agency (2008), the Patriots have a legitimate "shut down" corner. In his prime Revis was in a class by himself among NFL CBs, and now two seasons removed from ACL surgery, most expect him to return to the status of one of the elite cover-corners in the NFL. While Aqib Talib (the next closest thing to shut down CB since Samuel) did a solid job of covering slower WRs and athletic TEs (when healthy, that is), Talib was not a great match for the primary AFC receiving threats, many of whom have elite speed (like AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace etc.),
- The rest of the Pats secondary is also above average. First of all, the Pats have the most depth at CB in the NFL (which often becomes critical in December / January) with as many as 6 players that could start for a handful of NFL teams. Additionally, Devin McCourty has emerged as one of the best 2 or 3 free safeties in the NFL.
- For the first time since 2008, the Patriots once again have an extremely athletic, extremely versatile linebacking core. Mayo is joined by first round draft choice Donte Hightower, and physical freak Jamie Collins who came into his own after inheriting a starting role in December of 2013 (his rookie year). This unit can excel in coverage, and rushing the passer, and should hold its own in the running game. Finally, Belichick has the athletes to once again employ creative schemes that confuse opposing QBs.
- With first round draft pick Chandler Jones slowly emerging as a top-flight pass-rusher, Rob Ninkovitch providing steady, if unspectacular, production (8 sacks each of last 2 years), Wilfork and 1st round rookie Dominique Easley serving as solid interior pass rushing tandem, and a bunch of linebackers that can get to the QB, the pass rush (another big weakness in the last 6 years) should be significantly improved.
Summary: The Patriots have addressed their weakness in the secondary and pass defense and turned this area into a potential major strength. The 2014 defense looks like the best unit since the Super Bowl years and worthy of a top contender. IMHO they project as one of the best 5 defenses in the NFL this year.
After a down year in 2013, the Patriots offense should improve and be one of the top groups in the NFL in 2014:
Looking back to last year at this time:
- The key non-Brady player, Ron Gronkowski was still healing from two major surgeries (back, forearm) and never really got into the groove in 2013. While he underwent season ending knee surgery in January 2014, the Gronk looks and feels heathier than this time last year. Obviously he is still a major injury risk, but having him on the field alone could transform the offense. Example: In games that Gronkowski played last year, the Pats had a 69% red zone efficiency #, when not available that dropped to 43% ...a HUGE difference. 69% would have ranked 3rd over-all in NFL last year whereas 43% would have ranked DEAD LAST ....no team is going to win a Super Bowl ranked last in this category.
- Aaron Hernandez was sent to jail and all of a sudden both of the TEs who were the cornerstones of one of the NFL's best offenses were gone. On short notice, the Pats were unable to find a suitable "move" TE to fill the Hernandez role. However, with the trade for Tampa's Tim Wright, the Patriots pick-up a very solid candidate to replace some of the production of Hernandez and serve as another big target for Brady to find in the Red Zone.
- After losing Welker, Lloyd, Woodhead, Gronkowski, and Hernandez the Patriots opened the 2013 campaign without all 5 of their top pass catchers from the previous season. Add that they required rookie WRs Aaron Dobson and Kembrell Tompkins to take on major roles in the offense as rookies (never a good idea in the NFL ..it usually requires at least one year for WRs to "get it") AND their main pass catching back (and the only viable replacement for Woodhead) Shane Vareen was on the IR. Clearly, all of this was a bit much for Brady and the passing game to overcome, and as a result they slipped from one of the top passing teams to middle-of-the-road.
But the situation looks much better in 2013 because:
- Gronk is healthy, at least temporarily and Wright should help at TE
- Dobson and Thompkins should improve with a year of experience
- All of the WRs from last year should be more in sync with Brady after a full year of experience together.
- Vareen is back
Some would suggest that there is concern in the offensive line after trading away pro bowl guard Logan Mankins, but others (including me) believe that while Mankins was still a decent NFL guard, age has slowed him a bit and as a result he was a liability in pass protection in 2013. Unquestionably, there are some questions at OL (especially who will play the guard spot vacated by Mankins) in the near-term, but the Patriots are confident that they have a deep and talented group. The potential line of (left to right) Solder, Vollmer, Wendell, Connolly, and Cannon puts their best 3 OL athletes (Solder, Vollmer, And Cannon) into the line-up at the same time, and should eventually overcome any of the short-term issues related to continuity
The Special Teams units (especially kicker Stephen Gostkowski) are also among the NFLs best.
Fearless prediction: The Patriots go 14-2 or 13-3 and win the #1 seed for AFC play-offs, knock off Andrew Luck and Indy in the conference semis, beat Manning and Denver in the AFC conference championship, and finish the job by defeating the Saints in the SB.
Anyone going to Vegas: While the present odds of 7-1 price the Patriots chances of winning the Super Bowl at one in eight (12.5%), I rate this as their best team since the 2002-2005 dynasty (with the possible exception of 2007-08) and figure those odds are more than fair.
Summary: The Patriots went 12-4 in 2013 and advanced to the AFC Championship despite a plague of injuries to some of their best players. They begin the 2014 season with no major injuries to report to key contributors. Among those who return:
Vince Wolfork - Multiple all-pro selection. The linchpin of the Patriots run defense. Pats had a very difficult time preventing opposing teams from rushing up the middle after Wolfork went down
Jerod Mayo - The QB of the defense. Another all-pro. Super versatile, athletic linebacker who is perfect for the Belichik style of defense that places a premium on multi-skilled defenders
Rob Gronkowski - Yet another all-pro. Best all-around TE in football when healthy. The key to the offense (especially in the Red Zone) along with Brady.
Sebastian Vollmer - 2nd team all-pro in 2010. Key OL contributor
Shane Vareen - Missed a significant portion of 2013 season (although played in play-offs). When chips are down and Pats need to score, this is the guy they want on the field. On of top 50 / 50 (run / pass) type backs in league.
...................
FACT or FICTION
FICTION: Brady and the offense have carried the Patriots to play-off success and 3 Super Bowls. In the play-offs Brady has posted a solid, but not extraordinary, 87.5 passer rating ...ranking him slightly ahead of contemporaries Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Phillip Rivers. In the 3 Super Bowl wins, his lines are as follows:
2002 St Louis 16 (completions) - 27 (attempts) - 145 (yards) -1 (TD) - 0 (INTs)
2004 Carolina 32-48-354-3-1
2005 Philly 23-33-236-2-0
While these were solid efforts (and the TD-INT ratio of 6-1 is exceptional), they are not the stats of a guy who "carried" his team with the exception of the Carolina game which was one been his best performances ever in a big spot.
In addition, in the last 6 play-off losses (2 to Baltimore, 1 to NYJ, 2 Super Bowls versus NYG, and last year's AFC championship against Denver) the play of Brady and the offense has been mediocre in general, and in the two Baltimore games was sub-par. Brady was rattled by pressure that collapsed the pocket frequently and unable to improvise successfully under difficult conditions.
While the offense has delivered them to the door many times in the Belichick-Brady era, rarely has it put them over the top.
FACT: The performance of the Patriots defense was the key to 2 of the Patriots 3 Super Bowl wins.
In the 2005 Philly game, the Pats turned the Eagles over 4 times, had 4 sacks, and held the Eagles rushing attack to just 45 yards on 17 carries ...forcing McNabb into "must pass" mode and a bunch of turnovers.
In the 2002 St Louis game, the Patriots defense remarkably held one of the best offenses in NFL history, "the greatest show on turf", to a paltry 17 points ..(as compared to a low of 27 points over the prior 8 games), turned the Rams over 3 times, and scored on a "pick 6" by CB Ty Law.
The purpose of this brief history lesson was to demonstrate that in the years when the Patriots were winning Super Bowls, the defense was at least equally important in securing those victories.
THE 2014 PATRIOTS DEFENSE:
In the early 2000s, the Patriots revolutionized the way that teams thought about defense. Central to their success was employing athletic, multi-skilled players like Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi, who could serve in multiple roles (defending the run, rushing the passer, and dropping into coverage). While Bruschi had one of the all-time great NCAA college careers, he slipped to #86 in the NFL draft because he didn't have a clear-cut position in the NFL, but Belichick saw a play-maker who did multiple things well and managed to employ his unique skill set at MLB where he became one of the greatest Patriots defenders. Vrable, similarly, didn't have a stand-out skill in an era that emphasized specialization and was signed from Pittsburgh to a fairly modest free agent contract. Unfortunately, as the Patriots experienced huge success, and Belichick defensive disciples like Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini took over head coaching spots, the NFL started placing a premium on "Bellichick-type" players. As a result, it became far more difficult to find multi-skilled players at LB.
The 2009-2013 Patriots defense bore little resemblance to the successful units of the Super Bowl years. The Patriots lost Vrable to free agency and Bruschi to retirement. The linebacking core went from athletic and versatile to slow and one dimensional. MLBs like an aging Junior Seau and Brandon Spikes were on the extreme slow end of the spectrum for NFL linebackers. With exception of Mayo, Belichick had no "jack-of-all trades" players to keep teams off balance (from a lack of knowing what any of the LBs was going to do on a given play).
Finally, the other primary characteristic that was crucial for the Super Bowl teams was a "shutdown" cornerback. Both Ty Law and Asante Samuel were key players during those years in that role. As one of Belichick's primary defensive goals is to limit the production of the most important weapon on the opposing offense (which is generally a WR), the ability to assign one guy to that role frees up the rest of the defense to do interesting, and unpredictable, things by dictating to the offense as opposed to vice-versa. Also, worth noting that the Super Bowl winning teams featured especially strong secondaries, in general ...while recently this has been a primary weakness for the Patriots and the pass defense has been consistently among the bottom 10 as a result.
Why the 2014 Defense is much closer to the 2002-2005 Super Bowl winning units than the more recent mediocre (or worse) versions:
- For the first time since Samuel left for the Eagles in Free Agency (2008), the Patriots have a legitimate "shut down" corner. In his prime Revis was in a class by himself among NFL CBs, and now two seasons removed from ACL surgery, most expect him to return to the status of one of the elite cover-corners in the NFL. While Aqib Talib (the next closest thing to shut down CB since Samuel) did a solid job of covering slower WRs and athletic TEs (when healthy, that is), Talib was not a great match for the primary AFC receiving threats, many of whom have elite speed (like AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace etc.),
- The rest of the Pats secondary is also above average. First of all, the Pats have the most depth at CB in the NFL (which often becomes critical in December / January) with as many as 6 players that could start for a handful of NFL teams. Additionally, Devin McCourty has emerged as one of the best 2 or 3 free safeties in the NFL.
- For the first time since 2008, the Patriots once again have an extremely athletic, extremely versatile linebacking core. Mayo is joined by first round draft choice Donte Hightower, and physical freak Jamie Collins who came into his own after inheriting a starting role in December of 2013 (his rookie year). This unit can excel in coverage, and rushing the passer, and should hold its own in the running game. Finally, Belichick has the athletes to once again employ creative schemes that confuse opposing QBs.
- With first round draft pick Chandler Jones slowly emerging as a top-flight pass-rusher, Rob Ninkovitch providing steady, if unspectacular, production (8 sacks each of last 2 years), Wilfork and 1st round rookie Dominique Easley serving as solid interior pass rushing tandem, and a bunch of linebackers that can get to the QB, the pass rush (another big weakness in the last 6 years) should be significantly improved.
Summary: The Patriots have addressed their weakness in the secondary and pass defense and turned this area into a potential major strength. The 2014 defense looks like the best unit since the Super Bowl years and worthy of a top contender. IMHO they project as one of the best 5 defenses in the NFL this year.
After a down year in 2013, the Patriots offense should improve and be one of the top groups in the NFL in 2014:
Looking back to last year at this time:
- The key non-Brady player, Ron Gronkowski was still healing from two major surgeries (back, forearm) and never really got into the groove in 2013. While he underwent season ending knee surgery in January 2014, the Gronk looks and feels heathier than this time last year. Obviously he is still a major injury risk, but having him on the field alone could transform the offense. Example: In games that Gronkowski played last year, the Pats had a 69% red zone efficiency #, when not available that dropped to 43% ...a HUGE difference. 69% would have ranked 3rd over-all in NFL last year whereas 43% would have ranked DEAD LAST ....no team is going to win a Super Bowl ranked last in this category.
- Aaron Hernandez was sent to jail and all of a sudden both of the TEs who were the cornerstones of one of the NFL's best offenses were gone. On short notice, the Pats were unable to find a suitable "move" TE to fill the Hernandez role. However, with the trade for Tampa's Tim Wright, the Patriots pick-up a very solid candidate to replace some of the production of Hernandez and serve as another big target for Brady to find in the Red Zone.
- After losing Welker, Lloyd, Woodhead, Gronkowski, and Hernandez the Patriots opened the 2013 campaign without all 5 of their top pass catchers from the previous season. Add that they required rookie WRs Aaron Dobson and Kembrell Tompkins to take on major roles in the offense as rookies (never a good idea in the NFL ..it usually requires at least one year for WRs to "get it") AND their main pass catching back (and the only viable replacement for Woodhead) Shane Vareen was on the IR. Clearly, all of this was a bit much for Brady and the passing game to overcome, and as a result they slipped from one of the top passing teams to middle-of-the-road.
But the situation looks much better in 2013 because:
- Gronk is healthy, at least temporarily and Wright should help at TE
- Dobson and Thompkins should improve with a year of experience
- All of the WRs from last year should be more in sync with Brady after a full year of experience together.
- Vareen is back
Some would suggest that there is concern in the offensive line after trading away pro bowl guard Logan Mankins, but others (including me) believe that while Mankins was still a decent NFL guard, age has slowed him a bit and as a result he was a liability in pass protection in 2013. Unquestionably, there are some questions at OL (especially who will play the guard spot vacated by Mankins) in the near-term, but the Patriots are confident that they have a deep and talented group. The potential line of (left to right) Solder, Vollmer, Wendell, Connolly, and Cannon puts their best 3 OL athletes (Solder, Vollmer, And Cannon) into the line-up at the same time, and should eventually overcome any of the short-term issues related to continuity
The Special Teams units (especially kicker Stephen Gostkowski) are also among the NFLs best.
Fearless prediction: The Patriots go 14-2 or 13-3 and win the #1 seed for AFC play-offs, knock off Andrew Luck and Indy in the conference semis, beat Manning and Denver in the AFC conference championship, and finish the job by defeating the Saints in the SB.
Anyone going to Vegas: While the present odds of 7-1 price the Patriots chances of winning the Super Bowl at one in eight (12.5%), I rate this as their best team since the 2002-2005 dynasty (with the possible exception of 2007-08) and figure those odds are more than fair.
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