Friday, January 23, 2015

Patriots Deflate-gate

OK, after digesting the Deflate-gate info for a few days, here are my observations (based on the limited information available):
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     Contrary to the language of the original reports by the NFL, I personally don’t believe that the balls were tampered with between the inspection and the game.  If they were, this would be a clear and serious violation of the rules and my opinion on this matter would change drastically. 

-          What is more likely is that the balls were inflated in very warm conditions (probably warmer than the locker room) and then inspected in the warm locker room with the knowledge that the balls would naturally deflate below league prescribed levels when exposed to colder temperatures outside.  There is a good chance that this is not the first time this has happened.  It is easy to imagine that this has been going on for some time and therefore the Pats have played other games with under-inflated footballs. as well.

-          This rule of “each team brings its own ball (for offense)” has been around at many levels of football for quite some time.  The reason: teams (especially QBs) want the ball a certain way and thus are able to use balls that suit their preferences (without giving one team or the other an unfair advantage by making them use a football that they find difficult to use).   

-          Brady unquestionably knew about this (that the level of inflation was below the prescribed league minimum).   He is just too tuned into the small variables that such a significant under-inflation could go by unnoticed …but again, maybe this wasn’t unusual because it is standard practice by the Pats in Foxboro on cold days.

-          If there is any blame to be cast, it is on Brady for not being candid about this.  Again, he almost surely knows what happened.

-          The handling of this whole affair by the NFL is embarrassing.  Should this be a huge story … absolutely not.  It would be a surprise if (given the potential change in temperature / weather conditions) this doesn’t happen at least a handful of times during the regular season league-wide.  I would suspect more, actually.  For the NFL to dive head first into this and make it a scandal with no data and no basis for comparison is highly irresponsible. 

-          My guess is that this will be “the straw that broke the camel’s back” and result in the firing of commissioner Roger Goodell.  He was treading on thin ice already with the poor handling of the Ray Rice incident and inconsistencies regarding player suspensions.  Add to this another big media blunder and the making of a very powerful enemy (in Robert Kraft).…his days are likely numbered.


I guess the broader question surrounding this is “How much blame is due to Tom Brady” for knowingly working around the rules.   Personally, I don’t think that Brady or the Patriots technically BROKE the rules, but rather found a convenient and clever way to get around them.  Is this behavior acceptable … good question and the subject of an interesting debate.  Are many successful NFL and College teams working around the rules when they can gain an advantage by doing so? …I would say indubitably yes.