The Derby favorite JUSTIFY has been on the radar of most serious handicappers since he exploded onto the scene in February. In three undefeated starts, JUSTIFY has run three eye-popping races. Just how fast has he been? Since they started tracking Beyer speed figures in the 80s, no horse has run so fast, so soon, over long distances. He has the look of a horse who wants to run all day, from his impressive gallop out in the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby and morning workouts at SA and Churchill Downs. If he improves in his 4th career start, he will be on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and will be the best horse that I have ever seen at this point in his career.
There are reasons to be skeptical however ....
- The "Curse of Apollo" (You'll certainly hear about this leading up to the race) where no horse who was unraced at 2 has won the Derby since 1882!!
- No horse has ever won the Derby after only 3 career starts
- JUSTIFY has encountered very little trouble in his first three starts. He did beat BOLT D'ORO in the Santa Anita Derby (who otherwise may have been the Derby favorite), but in that race he had an uncontested lead. Otherwise he has beaten little.
So what to think about JUSTIFY? Glass half full or half empty? I'd be inclined to think the former (he has been my "Derby Horse" since February ... but it is a tough decision given that he will be the favorite.)
What made up my mind was this .... at Ladbrokes in the UK, a different horse, MENDELSSOHN, opened as the betting favorite leaving JUSTIFY as a very fair 9/2 second choice. My man Rick West (who is on the ground there) and I pounced on this immediately. Our British Pounds are on JUSTIFY at the over-inflated price. Strangely, the odds have not corrected themselves yet, and JUSTIFY remains as of this writing (on Thursday morning) the 9/2 second choice. This has the potential to be a rare horse racing arb (it may be possible to bet Justify in England, the rest of the horses in Kentucky, and make a small risk free profit).
My advice to you, if you are inclined to bet JUSTIFY for any considerable sum of $, consider finding a friend or relative in the UK and get the bigger price.
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Otherwise, MENDELSSOHN, the favorite in Europe (and the hyped "European Hope") was an extremely expensive yearling ($3 million) has won on three different types of surfaces, and saved his best for his last out, an 18 length romp in the UAE Derby. One factor of note there is that this huge effort was aided by "the mother of all inside speed biases" ... inside front-runners won 16 of the 17 dirt races in the Meydan meet (almost unheard of). Worth noting that the connections here are royalty of horse racing with Coolmore / O'Brien / Moore being among the most highly respected names in the game.
Of course, there are also reasons to be skeptical here:
- No horse stabled in Europe has ever won the Derby. NEVER.
- No horse coming from outside of the Americas prior to the Derby has ever won the Derby.
- Horses coming out of the UAE Derby have performed very poorly in the Kentucky Derby ...never better than 5th.
Obviously, the heavy betting of MENDLESSOHN in Europe suggests that some are hopeful that he will be the one to overcome the above.
MENDELSSOHN looks like a nice horse, but I don't think he can beat JUSTIFY if the latter runs to his potential.
BOLT D'ORO would be a legit Derby favorite in most years. Has never run a bad race, and has faced the best of the best, both this year and last year. His speed figures are on par with a Derby winner. Trouble is he ran into JUSTIFY. He is definitely a threat, but can he beat JUSTIFY on his best? I don't think so.
There are others that also look good. AUDIBLE looked good in winning the Florida Derby (the path of the last 2 Derby winners) and may be the best of a strong Todd Pletcher contingent. MAGNUM MOON is undefeated in 4 starts (another one trying to buck the "Curse of Apollo"). GOOD MAGIC won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and seems to be rounding into form at the right time.
How do I see the race shaping up? .....
#3 PROMISES FULFILLED and #4 FLAMEAWAY both figure to try to get the early lead with the former being the faster of the two. They should head to the turn on the lead. #7 JUSTIFY should be flanking them on the outside and 2nd or 3rd into the turn. It would be best for his chances if none of the jockeys outside of him use their horses to try to beat him around. Mike Smith will do what he can to avoid a horse coming from outside of him and crossing in front of him. JUSTIFY has never had dirt kicked in his face and I wouldn't be too keen on trying that experiment in the Derby. Assuming he gets around 3rd, JUSTIFY will wait as long as possible to make his move because the threats will be behind him, not in front of him. I envision him (in a winning scenario) taking charge towards the final 3rd of the backstretch and then taking firm command into the final turn.
This Derby is a star studded cast ... one of the best that I have ever seen. However, intuitively I think that this is JUSTIFY's race to win or lose. Therefore at 9-2 (at this price you need 2 winners in 11 races to break even) he is a bit of a no-brainer for me. Is the Kentucky Derby "too much, too soon" for him? We'll see on Saturday.
