UPDATE 45 minutes before post: Given the current odds, I am going to use Hence. He seems like the best value to me at the price given the track conditions.
Welcome to the annual Derby blog. Since we last convened, the big news in the horseracing world has been Arrogate. In just 4 stakes races, he vaulted himself into the discussion of "Greatest Classic Distance Horse Since the 70's." The Travers / Breeders Cup Classic / Pegasus / Dubai World Cup string is probably the best that I have ever seen. A couple of track records. The dramatic running down of California Chrome from way back in the Breeder's Cup ..in the latter's best career effort by far etc. He is off until late summer, when we'll probably see him again at Del Mar and then in the Breeder's Cup. If he runs back to those efforts again, I think the case will be closed.
Why have I never heard of Arrogate, you ask? Well, he was a late starting 3 year old, not running his first race until weeks before last year's Derby and thus missed the Triple Crown. He did beat the Preakness and Belmont winners in the Travers (won by 13 lengths!) and then C-Chrome (Derby / Preakness winner 2014) in the aforementioned Breeder's Cup race.
On to the Derby ....
So to start, there have been two types of Derbys recently:
1) There is an obvious "superior horse." A potential champion. You feel like if that horse is on his game and gets a good trip, he will win. That simple. In the last decade I see those as
- American Pharoah (who I bet)
- Big Brown (who I also bet)
- California Chrome (who I didn't believe in enough to justify the price at the time)
In the rest of the races I didn't feel (at Derby post time) like there was a potential Triple Crown winner in the bunch. Those races were all won who achieved peak form (for their whole careers!) at exactly this time. Among the other 6 winners since Big Brown ...NONE of them ever got any better...despite the fact that horses in the spring of their 3 year old year generally are still improving and growing into their maturing bodies. There is an old horse racing adage that I haven't heard in quite some time "four year olds beat three year olds" and this reflects that horse often improve to another level at age 4 ...but not in the case of the Derby winners.
THIS YEAR ....I don't see an obvious "superior horse." I would accept suggestions that their are two possibilities ..and we'll discuss them first.
SUPERIOR HORSE?
CLASSIC EMPIRE ran a big figure to win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year and would be head and shoulders above if he could improve on that. The only problem is that I see nothing in his present form that suggests that this will happen. He was sidelined in the middle of the campaign with a hoof abscess and hasn't run very well since. He did win the Arkansas Derby in his last, but that race was unusually slow and he only beat a journeyman horse (Lookin' at Lee ..also in Derby field) by 1&1/2 lengths despite the fact that the latter tried to visit every path on the Oaklawn stretch, running a crazy zig-zag of a pattern home, while ducking in and out of others, probably losing 3 lengths in the process. Based on that tape alone, I'd be more inclined to bet Lookin' at Lee than Classic Empire ...but the former has no other reason in his past performances to consider him. Finally, both DRF Clockers (who are usually spot on in their Derby observations) suggest that Classic Empire looks less than 100% these days, by observations in the morning at Churchill.
So you can speculate that CLASSIC EMPIRE will return to peak form for the Derby and bet him ...but I won't at a relatively short price. PASS.
ALWAYS DREAMING is the most interesting horse in the race. Both clockers are very impressed by his long strides and suggest that his work-out the other day was far and away the best of the contenders. That combined with a very impressive win in his last in the Florida Derby such that it may be possible for him to be a champion. He may be fast enough at longer distances.
However, given that he will probably be a solid favorite, I'm gonna take the "glass half empty" view. First of all, this horse has little experience against top caliber horses ...the Florida Derby was his first stakes race ..and he's had "perfect trips" in all 3 races this year. Almost like he was running in a time trial and granted a lane where he had no impediments to running his fastest possible time. With 20 horses ...things will not be that easy in the Derby. How will he react to adversity. Maybe he'll be fine, but horses with this little seasoning rarely perform to peak in the Derby. This is not a time trial, but rather a crazy 20 horse stampede.
The other knock on ALMOST DREAMING is that he has been extremely unruly in the mornings over the past week or so. He became so difficult to handle that they put special "draw reigns" on him so that he could be more easily managed. Those will come off for the race. So the big question is ... what is going to happen in front of 100,000+ screaming lunatics. If he doesn't react well to that (a distinct possibility) then his chances will be diminished considerably.
So I will also pass on Almost Dreaming. If you want to bet on him as the most likely champion in the group...feel free. My only advice in that regard is if you are going to do this ....wait until 5 minutes before the race. Watch how he behaves up until then. If he is unruly and very difficult to handle, then you might want to reconsider.
NEED TO RUN THEIR BEST RACE (my guess is that the race will be run by a horse who "peaks" at exactly this time in his life)
(Note: I don't have the time to write on all of them ...bur here are some that I thought worthy of consideration).
IRISH WAR CRY - Actually he could be the 3rd in the above group, but he doesn't have the same wow! factor of Almost Dreaming or the class of CLASSIC EMPIRE ...but he does have some of the fastest prep races in the field. He'll probably still have to improve to win, but not out of the question for him to be a champion. There's a lot to like here including Graham Motion, the trainer of our 2011 Derby score (21-1) Animal Kingdom. He is a world class horseman who knows how to prepare horses for big races (one of the few trainers to have a positive Return On Investment (ROI) in Graded Stakes races. Also, his sire is Curlin which suggests that he may take to the long mile and a quarter distance. I may bet this one.
However, there are a couple of negatives regarding Irish War Cry that are worth mentioning. The big one is jockey Rajiv Maragh. Putting him on this horse for this race seems like a tactical error. He has been a consistent underperformer at classic distance stakes races over the years. I have a personal bias against him. Given, it's good that he should be towards the front, and therefore have less chances to make trouble for himself ...I still consider this a negative. Also, the winners of the Wood Memorial have dramatically underperformed over the years. Not sure why. Change in climate? Random chance? Hard to say, but worth noting.
Again, could justify betting this one. At this time, though, I won't. Worth consideration.
So I'm going to toss all of the horses from the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbys (too slow). Girvin looks like a horse that is improving, and he picks up Mike Smith which is a plus ...but I don't think he is ready yet to make a huge leap Ditto for the Santa Anita Derby ...usually one of the strongest Derby preps, but very substandard this year (This eliminates and Battle of Midway and Gormley).
If you are gunning for longshots ...these 2 have an outside shot:
HENCE - A major riddle. Nothing to speak of prior to his last start and then a huge performance where they had to adjust his figure down because it was so out of line with prior races. Interestingly, Irad, who was badly beaten in that race, came back to win the Bluegrass (one of the strongest Derby preps this year). Running style much more suitable to Churchill than Sunland..a plus. Don't know what to think here. May consider at the right price. Also, moves up on wet track as he is one of the few that has won such a race.
TAPWRIT - Both clockers love the way he looks in the morning this week. His Tampa Bay Derby 2 back was very good. I like the jockey (Ortiz) in this sort of spot. Problem is, in the Bluegrass he didn't run a step. Hard to like him over McCraken when the latter had slowed down due to small traffic and Tapwrit pulled up beside him entering the far turn and McCraken just took off and ran away from him. At 20-1+ is definitely worthy of consideration ...only problem is that the love from the clockers may force his price down considerably. Likely to pass at the expected price.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
MCCRAKEN - Mentioned above. This is the one that I want to bet. I think he is most likely among all of them to run his best career race on Derby Day given that 1) The Nafzger / Wilkes team has proven very capable of picking a specific race and getting the horse to peak specifically then. This can be frustrating for bettors who wager on them in preps only to see their horses deliver less than optimal performance (see McCraken in Blue Grass). Anyway, I think that race and the issues that he had in the backstretch will serve him well. 2) That combined with his excellent training over the Churchill strip in the last couple of weeks suggests that he may be peaking at the right time.
Negatives on McCraken include a) he is a "buzz" horse due to his recent training and he may be overbet. In fact, the ML of 5-1 seems too short compared to his previous race record. Also, while jockey Brian Hernandez is not a major negative, he is not first tier either. He killed Mo Tom's chances in the Derby last year when getting him into big trouble at exactly the wrong time (when he was just starting his closing burst). I may eliminate on price consideration. At 8-1 or more, I would probably bet.
GUNNEVERA - This horse's 15-1 morning line looks like a type to me. There are negatives including his lackluster showing in the Florida Derby and his leisurely recent workout (slowest for distance at track that day) BUT this horse was just an odds-on favorite against Almost Dreaming in last, sports the most solid stakes race efforts in the field, has champion classic distance sires all over his pedigree and should appreciate the added distance, has a favorable come-from-behind running style, and a Hall of Fame jockey (although coming from way behind on long races is not his strongest suit.
SUMMARY
So as of now (Thursday Afternoon) I am strongly considering 3 horses. My target prices are roughly 12-1 Gunnevera, 8-1 McCraken, and 25-1 Hence ...if I get better than that on any of them then that will be my likely selection.
If you want further color, I will make an update of this at least 15 minutes before post time on Derby Day to inform you of my final selection
