(Disclaimer: I don't have much to say about this particular Derby. If I didn't already have a betting interest, then I would be betting very small, if at all. However, rather than continue to answer individual inquiries about what I like, it seemed more efficient to lay out my thought here).
Regarding my own interests, I bet ROADSTER in the future book at what I considered to be a good price at the time ...details here: https://mindfullydiscontent.blogspot.com/2019/04/roadster-worth-flier-in-kentucky-derby.html.
That aside, here is what I think of the race as it presents itself on Friday:
The 2019 Kentucky Derby is wide open. There is no Big Brown or American Pharoah or Justify that clearly seems like the horse to beat. The top contenders are all very close in terms of speed figures and resumes. One could argue that Omaha Beach was clearly best, but since the Morning Line favorite was scratched earlier this week there is no longer a clear cut favorite. However, the consensus opinion is that there are 5 who are a cut above the rest. My thoughts on these:
MAXIMUM SECURITY has been the fastest in the preps leading up to the Derby in that he comes in off an easy 4 length victory in The Florida Derby which has recently been, along with the Santa Anita Derby, the prep that has yielded the most Derby winners. In summary, I am against him for the following reasons 1) His Florida Derby was the product of a bizarre race shape when jockey Luis Saez was able to come down from the outside on the other early speed threats and force them to take back into the first turn, and then he slowed the race to a relative crawl down the backstretch. The horses coming from the back never had a chance due to the unusually slow early fractions 2) The Florida Derby happened in the middle of a CRAZY hot streak by trainer Jason Servis at Gulfstream Park where he won with more than 40% of the horses that he saddled. Amazing. One of the biggest meets in memory for a trainer at a major track. I'm thinking MAXIMUM SECURITY's performance at Gulfstream was aided by this. 3) My gut tells me that he is not suited to the demanding 1&1/4 mile distance of the Derby...although the jury is still out on his sire New Year's Day. There are reasons to bet this one, but I would let him beat me at single digit odds.
IMPROBABLE (one of three Baffert trained horse of these top five) has been fast and was only beaten a length by the aforementioned OMAHA BEACH. He has the advantage of a first rate mud pedigree, and a huge race over the track on the Breeders Cup undercard last fall. He could be the favorite, especially if it rains. I'm against this one as well because 1) His pedigree on the sire side is definitely not suited to the distance 2) I don't like his temperament....he is very unruly. He figures to be sitting behind MAXIMUM SECURITY and WAR OF WILL in the early going on the inside and I don't trust in his ability to settle calmly and make one big run to catch the leaders in a big field and with 100,000+ bourbon crazed patrons on either side of him. He has had clear aim on the leaders in his preps and will have to find a good trip here to have a chance. Pass.
TACITUS is one of the ones that figures. Huge race in the Wood after getting slammed into the first turn. Has the look of one who wants to go long. Post outside the primary speed looks decent. Has to be strongly considered. If I were betting, I might use this one.
..........................
Regarding the other two, it is interesting to consider the projected race shape now that Omaha Beach is out. It is from this that I would probably form my final opinion.
Both #1 WAR OF WILL and #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY seem like they will be intent to be on the pace. #2 TAX figures to be forwardly placed. I'm not sure that #4 Gray Magician has any other option and could be fast enough to lead if he is pushed early ..although that hasn't been the recent strategy with this one. Anyway, from MAXIMUM SECURITY in, there will be a scramble for early position.
However from #8 TACITUS out to #18 LONG RANGE TODDY there doesn't seem to be anyone who is a strong candidate for the leading group (with the 6 from TACITUS out to #15 MASTER FENCER lacking early speed)
As a result there should be a pocket of space between the inside horses and #19 SPINOFF who could theoretically make a run at the lead and #21 BODEXPRESS who will almost surely make a run at the lead.
So that leaves some room for #15 GAME WINNER and #16 ROADSTER to possibly find a clean trip sitting in the pocket between the two groups of early speed horses and one of them could end up in perfect striking position headed down the backstretch
My top two choices are the ones who battled in the Santa Anita Derby and finished within a half length of each other (both come from the Baffert barn, winner of 2 Triple Crowns in the last 5 years).
While GAME WINNER was defeated that day, he seems like the most logical winner tomorrow (It's funny that I would say this, as I'd always planned to stand against this horse as a 3 year old). Here are the reasons: 1) He had a huge win over the track in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (and was thus crowned 2 year old champ) 2) He has been aiming for this race all season and may have a performance pattern that is set to top in this race. 3) If it rains, he has an ideal mud pedigree on both sides. I don't love this one, and wouldn't be excited to bet him as favorite, but objectively he has the best chance.
Obviously ROADSTER is my bet (from 20-1 in early April). My case for him in the Santa Anita Derby is made in the link at the top of the page, and on that day he beat a heavily favored GAME WINNER. He sure seems fast enough to win (he beat the choice last out) but the primary negatives are:
1) He has had less than the ideal amount of preparation for this race. JUSTIFY bucked this trend last year but he is what Baffert called "a superior racehorse" ...ROADSTER is not in his category (as of yet).
2) The horse is small ..I'm not sure how he will feel in a 19 horse field with bumping and traffic. The post draw (and potential space as explained above) seems helpful ..but we'll see if that translates to a clean trip.
3) Unlike some others here, he is unproven in the mud (has never raced on off track). His sire side pedigree is decent for this but still a question.
I think he has a solid chance ..but probably not the best chance. He is currently 10-1 which seems much too high ...and is a definite play at 8-1 or higher. If he gets down near his morning line of 6-1, then there is a decision to be made.
For those searching to "get rich quick" my favorite longshot is #1 WAR OF WILL. He got a big break when the field was narrowed to 19 by the two scratches, and all of the horses inside the scratches moved over one gate position. He is now breaking out of the #2 post and not the dreaded #1 (which creates a tough angle to actually get on to the track in the early going). If you toss his horrible Louisiana Derby there is some stuff to like including:
1) A solid win over the track 2) The pedigree to run all day 3) A solid mud line from the Danzig side (although his sire himself has not been exceptional in his area early in his career) 4) "The Calvin Borel factor." Calvin was famous for riding the path right up against the rail and there are those who swear that that path, for the first 4 feet or so, is the best place to be on a wet Churchill Downs track. WAR OF WILL has the speed to chose his path coming out of the gate ...what if he finds the fastest part of the track all the way around (a big "if" as few jockeys are comfortable riding that close to the rail). Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked if WAR OF WILL ran well.
FYI here are the two Calvin rail riding wins in the Derby on "off" tracks:
2009 MINE THAT BIRD (such a longshot that the best racecaller in America didn't even recognize him until he was well in front https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv8x9x5A49s Came from WAY back.
2010 SUPER SAVER this one is cool because you can see in the overhead down the backstretch just how close that Calvin is to the rail, and when he strays even a bit from hugging the rail in the stretch, Calvin visibly tugs him back up against it to stay on what he believes is the best part of the track https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYUQhefukU4
So that's it for this year. Again take all of this with a grain of salt as I'm not so confident in my conclusions and won't bet beyond what I am already locked in to. Good luck ...may the horse be with you!
