Patriots 2019 Post Draft Commentary

Thoughts and Observations regarding the Pats' 2019 draft ....

I'll admit it...I spent too much time thinking about the 2019 NFL draft.  I am writing this because I need closure, and to move on with my life.  Thanks for indulging me ;)

Given that the Patriots could win #6 with the talent level on last year's team, the message is clear: you can't count this dynasty out until they have been beaten on the field.

Of course, this off-season has not been kind to the Pats.  They lost a lot more than they got back in free agency (I included a "backstory of off season" at bottom of this report).  Suffice to say, the Patriots really need a big yield from this draft due to the amount of present holes from Free Agency defections and Gronk's retirement.  It would seem that the Pats are in big trouble if they don't get at least a few solid contributors from this draft (especially #1 pick N'Keal Henry).

My Post Draft Review:

In short, I LOVE this draft by the Pats.  Hard to envision how it could have turned out better (on paper).

The two things that stand out are:

- CHARACTER - At the top of the draft at least, the Pats were able to get guys who were leaders and favorites of their respective coaches.  There were several "Just grateful to have a chance / believe in the system and just want to do whatever I can to help the team / excited to get to work" type of interviews to solidify the coaches' recommendations.  It's good that the Pats could get these sorts of players AND simultaneously get guys who delivered on the field commensurate with where they were picked (or better).

- FIT - The five guys that I have an opinion on, and are highlighted below, seem to be nearly perfect fits for specific Patriots needs.

1st round / #32 N'KEAL HARRY (WR) Arizona State - With all of the WR depth in this draft, it stood to reason that the Pats were going to wait and use one of the late 2nd or early 3rd round picks to fill this major need.  Instead the Pats opted to take the highest guy on their board (and only 2nd WR picked in the whole draft... after undersized "Hollywood" Brown, Kyler Murray's favorite target at Oklahoma).

If the Pats were posting a Help Wanted ad for this job it would have read, "The ideal candidate would have the following attributes":

- First rate character (as mentioned above).  Herm Edwards, his college coach, is a big fan
- Elite productivity in college and the ability to start at in-line receiver on Day One in the NFL
- Flexibility to both be a deep threat and to run the whole route tree
- Game breaking potential in the open field  (to replace a lot of what Patterson provided last year)
- Physical down field run blocking to support the emerging reliance on the power running game.

It seems improbable that one could find such a guy in any draft (one that checks ALL of the boxes), but that is exactly what Harry is.  Amazing!  The main knock on him is that he doesn't have elite speed like DK Metcalf, but this isn't a trait that the Pats value highly anyway.   Even without breakaway speed, he is a big danger to break one after the catch or by winning contested downfield catches like DeAndre Hopkins (who also doesn't have elite speed).

GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position):  A

2nd round / #45 Joejuan Williams (WR) Vanderbilt - The Pats paid a solid price for Williams in that they gave up a late 3rd rounder, just to move up 11 spots to draft a guy that was the #50 prospect on Mel Kiper's board.  However, I am speculating that this will turn out to be a great pick for the Pats and here is why ....

Williams is an unusually big, physical corner (6'4" 211) who can cover in zone and man (especially press coverage).  The shortcoming that prevents him from being an elite prospect (and high 1st round pick) is the lack of first rate make up speed, and that means he can be beaten deep if left on an island in man coverage.  BUT the Pats already have that shut-down / out on an island corner in All Pro Stephon Gilmore.  So why pick this guy so high?

I see this as one of those Belichick "visionary" moves ...where he perceives value and employs it prior to anyone else.  One of the major offensive trends of the last 5-10 years has been very athletic Tight Ends becoming a significant part of the passing game.  When the chips were down, in the AFC Championship game versus the Chiefs, the Pats had to move their most valuable defensive "chess piece" over to cover Travis Kelce, the most dangerous of this new breed of TEs.  Why?  He is a match-up nightmare ...too big for the great majority of corners to cover.  At 6'1 202 Gilmore is the Patriots' biggest corner (and their biggest defensive back along with Duron Harmon) and so he was the man for the job.  While Harmon and Patrick Chung are tough and reliable, neither is an especially effective cover guy.

So enter Williams and his unique skill set / big body (for a corner).  While he may not be the best guy in the NFL to cover elite receivers one-on-one, what about bringing him out in all sub packages including "big nickel" (which is often their base defense against opponents with limited running games).  Is there are guy who is theoretically better suited to cover these TEs and big possession receivers who lack home run speed?  Could this guy become one of the best in the game at a specific role ..and one that is growing in importance?   Maybe we will get a test of this in the 2nd half of the year against 2 of the 3 most dangerous pass catching TEs (Kelce and Zach Ertz of Philly).  Would the Pats dare give him some snaps opposite JuJu (very big but not elite fast) in the opener against Pittsburgh?

My evaluation includes several assumptions / factors: 1) Williams supposedly had a long meeting in NE including a film session with Bill ..they must have really liked what they learned about him (to move up aggressively) 2) Bill has guessed right (and I have guessed right about Bill guessing right) that this guy may be a very valuable contributor ..just not in the way that you would figure that a highly rated corner would contribute (as shut down corner).  3) Very slight downgrade for draft capital expended to move up and draft this guy

GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position):  A- 

3rd round / #77 Chase Winovich (DE) Michigan

Mel Kiper's #44 prospect, the Pats let him drop all the way to #77 despite what seems to be a really good match for their system.  This turns a good pick into a great pick.

It's hard to see Winovich and not make the immediate comparison to Rob Ninkovitch.  Both Big 10 guys, both undersized DEs:

Winovich - Much faster, quicker, more productive in college

Ninkovitch - Much more disciplined, efficient executor of Bill's vision for DE in 4-3

The present Pats could really use peak Rob Ninkovitch.   If Bill can teach Winovich to play more under control and execute the gameplan, then he has a higher ceiling.  Maybe also has value similar to his doppleganger Clay Matthews as a pass rusher from the 2nd level given his similar speed and excellent hand technique?

He slipped in the draft due to questions regarding him having a high ceiling as a classic 4-3 edge rusher.  Pats don't care as much about this ...as they generally use their ends differently anyway.  He seems like another amazing fit.

GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position):  A+

3rd round / #87 Damien Harris (RB) Alabama

Pats (incorrectly) perceived to be well set in backfield prior to draft.  However, if the Pats are going to continue their successful playoff trend of leaning on the power running game, then there will be a lot of tough yards to be made between the tackles this year.  History shows that running backs counted on to play a "bell-cow" role in such a running attack rarely make it through the regular season AND a deep playoff run without obvious signs of wear along the way (a similar issue with Todd Gurley arguably cost the Rams the Super Bowl).  Hence, the Pats needed someone to take a solid chunk of these tough yards carries so that Sony Michel still has something left in the tank when it matters.  Given his injury history and profile, Burkhead alone can't be counted on to shoulder that load.  Then what? Bolden? Doesn't seem ideal.

Enter one Damien Harris.  He does not seem like an elite prospect or a threat to win Rookie of the Year, but he fits this specific need perfectly.  He is a bruising, between the tackles runner who was very productive in college ...but because Saban spreads the carries among multiple backs, he still has "tread left on the tires"  In addition,to being able to gain the tough years, he also practices first rate ball security (0 fumbles in 172 touches senior year) ...which is obviously the highest priority for a Patriots back.

Fits a specific Patriots need very well.  Good, but not spectacular, pick.

GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position):  B

4th Round / #133 Jarrett Stidham QB Auburn

This video is made by a young QB who is a very astute observer of QB play (I highly recommend):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USCQIDX38Hk&list=PLbA9kEBowLYyvaeJWFN-avnEn4wCYbmr_&index=5

The majority of my opinions are contained therein, but to further elaborate:

Strengths:
- Low interception rate.   Two year career as starter: 11 interceptions in 739 passing attempts (That in arguably the best defensive division / conference, the SEC West).
- Had success as a junior losing only to (at the time):  #3 Clemson, #6 Georgia, #10 UCF and LSU.  Beat #1 (and eventual champs) Alabama and #2 Georgia.  Was Heisman trophy candidate coming into 2018 season.

Issues:
- In contrast to top picks Murray (Oklahoma) and Haskins (Ohio State) who played for coaches with first rate offensive minds, in pro type schemes, and with lots of receiving weapons, Stidham did not go through a program that prepped him well for the pros and he is definitely not presently prepared to play in the NFL.

Fortunately, in the case of the Patriots, his year #1 has close to zero value (with Brady taking all of the snaps) and near zero value for year 2 (assuming Brady sticks around at least until then).  Therefore, let's say he has 2 years to learn, at least, before being thrown to the wolves.  One would think that a lot of improvement could happen between now and then if he is the goods.

My personal evaluation (as a developmental QB, aiming to start year #3 soonest):

I don't like this QB class much for the Pats.  Of the day 2-3 guys ...

DREW LOCK just doesn't seem to have the head to be a good NFL QB despite arm strength.

WILL GRIER and RYAN FINLEY both seem to have arm limitations and may be close to their ceilings already

However, one can visualize conditions under which JARRETT STIDHAM could improve dramatically.  He is going to need to learn to play QB in an NFL offense ...but he has time.  He seems to have his head on squarely, and his arm and mechanics seem to be adequate.  So given the Pats have a need and excess draft capital ...why not take a shot with him?

GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position):  B+

.................................................


OTHER PICKS:

3rd round / Yodny Cajuste / OT West Virginia - No opinion except Pats desperately need OT depth.  Good for need.  Hopefully coach Scar can spin his magic once again.

4th round / Hjalte Froholdt / OG Arkansas - No opinion

5th round / Byron Cowart  / DT Maryland - No opinion except is presently a position of need and he was an elite prospect out of high school who admittedly got cocky and didn't work so hard early on.  Maybe he will bust his ass in productive environment and return to a high level?  Worth noting that they traded up a bit to get this guy.

5th round / Jake Bailey / P Stanford - Traded up to get a punter?  A right footed punter?  In the 5th round?  Interesting.   Positives besides his excellent leg:  He can get the ball off very quickly and avoid blocks.  Can kick-off (a weakness for the Pats recently).  Best of all, Bill gets to do some talking about his favorite subject ...punters.  What fun ...punter talk!!  Oh yeah, his cover photo has him with his shoelaces up near his face... making him look very similar to a young Ray Guy.  Did the Pats draft the next Ray Guy?  Bill's blood is pumping.

7th round / Ken Webster / CB Ole Miss - Unearthing useful corners from the depths of the draft and the undrafted is a strength of the Pats brain trust.  Let's hope they strike gold again.

............................
BACKSTORY OF OFF-SEASON

BIG losses:

- TRENT BROWN held down the LT spot as well as anyone could have hoped (and thus got PAID)
- TREY FLOWERS one of the two big impact players on "d" along with Gilmore
- GRONK (we probably need him to come out of retirement mid-season to win #7)

Meaningful losses:

- MALCOLM BROWN had a good year and a better playoffs (and SB).  Solid DT contributor
- CORDARRELLE PATTERSON made lots of small contributions (KR, back-up RB in a pinch, effective jet sweep / bubble screens) that in aggregate were a meaningful contribution
- LaADRIAN WADDLE didn't do much in 2018, but was an important 2017 fill-in when Marcus Cannon, and later Cameron Fleming, went down.  This loss made them dangerously thin at OT in the short-term

Other considerations:

DANNY SHELTON remains unsigned.  Would be good to have him back in run stuffing role.  Even better Ndamukong Suh is still out there.   This seems like #1 guy the Pats would be targeting after the May 7th compensatory free agent deadline (They don't want to sign an impact free agent before that, because it cut into the haul of compensatory picks that they will get as a result of their net losses in 2019 Free Agency

CHRIS HOGAN can't be considered a meaningful loss because the Pats basically let him go (signed a reportedly inexpensive one year deal with Carolina).  One would have thought that Hogan would have forward looking value for Pats, but management felt otherwise ...and those guys seem to be decent decision makers.
.......

BIG additions:

MICHAEL BENNETT ...let's hope he can play for the Patriots like he played against the Patriots in prior meetings (does he have enough left in the tank at age 33?)

Others:

AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS is what he is at this point in his career.  Best you can hope for is below average performer as an NFL starter ...but that is best they can hope for. 

DEMARYIUS THOMAS is on the decline and no longer a solid #1 or #2 receiver.  Potentially solid fill in for depth once he returns, and reportedly good teammate / mentor

MIKE PENNEL is someone I am not familiar with.  Didn't notice him in contests versus the Jets.  Maybe solid depth

Returning from Injury:

ISAIAH WYNN had better be a starting level NFL Left Tackle or that could be a problem.  Also, difficult injury to recover from (Achilles tear) and there is little known about the current state of his re-hab

JA'WHAUN BENTLEY was a BEAST last year.  Can't wait for him to come back.  Looks like Pro Bowl potential.  Should be major contributor.