Breeders Cup 2022

General Info Notes Prior to BC: All Mile and a sixteenth races on dirt at Keeneland have a short stretch (to the “first wire” not actual finish line) and this makes closing from far back more difficult and favors tactical speed. JUVENILE & JUVENILE Fillies on Friday this distance. JOCKEYS – Saez, Gafflione, and Rosario (on limited starts) had strong Keeneland fall meets For the Euros… William Buick – 3 wins in 4 starts in 2021 Breeders Cup (Mile / Turf / Juv Turf) and 4 for 5 in USA stakes in 2022. James Doyle – Limited USA racing last decade. Only 13-1-0-2 $500k. Win 2019 Northern Dancer @ WO. Kieran Shoemark – Young former addict. The horses on MILE page are his biggest mounts (Pogo / Interloper). Not top tier. No USA experience? Ryan Moore – Decent but not great USA success lately. Last BC win 2017 Juv Turf. Cut below Buick, for sure Dettori – A bit cool recently in biggest USA races. Similar to Moore, clearly behind Buick. ………………………………………………………………… FRIDAY selections: JUV TURF SPRINT Just like the way USA Juvies struggle with straight course European races, the Euros have trouble running sprints with one sharp turn. I’m just drawing a line through all of them and letting those beat me. LOVE REIGNS looks like the logical favorite with Wesley Ward being the king of these Juv turf sprints and Irad in the saddle. He’ll likely stalk the speed in the 2nd flight and Irad will try to find an inside hole on the turn. One issue, though, is that this manuever is more difficult at Keeneland than at Saratoga and add to that the full field of 12. I will probably not bet this one for those reasons (and the aggressive betting by the public due to connections) but I would not be surprised if he wins. SPEED BOAT BEACH is my choice. Broke Del Mar’s 5&1/2 furlong track record on dirt in debut and overcame trouble to win stakes turf debut. Draws favorably outside a horse with gate speed that will want to come down from the 10 hole and should have room to run. Assuming that he has enough gate speed to be in front of Euro rivals to his outside (a fast gate horse for a Euro), then he should get the trip if he is good enough. I’m betting that he is and Baffert strikes first ...... JUV FILLIES CHOP CHOP broke unusually slow and made a long, visually impressive closing move to fall a nose short at the Keeneland prep (The Alcibiades). Maybe the best horse here? I’ll use the former in multi race bets, but will probably bet YOU’RE MY GIRL to win. Breeding suggests that she was compromised by the wet track in her last, and I expect Johnny V to sneak around the first turn in a good spot on the inside. Think this one has a good chance to turn the tables on likely favorite CHOCOLATE GELATO (Irad, Pletcher) at a price due to more favorable conditions and race set-up. ............ JUV FILLY TURF MEDITATE looks like the best hope of the Euros on Friday. Most class in field by a lot. If she can get the two turns comfortably then she is the most logical winner. Not sure whether I will bet her to win or instead choose … CAIRO CONSORT at a price. Feel like Joel may be able to flash some gate speed and sneak around on top in a race without a lot of speed. If so, she has a legit shot at 12-1 , I think. The 10/14 work on the polytrack at Woodbine was VERY fast. ......... JUVENILE Tough to know what to think about CAVE ROCK as he has never been in a real horse race. The American Pharoah at Del Mar was gifted to him as the other Baffert’s in the race were the main potential early speed challengers and they did not contest the lead and let him waltz around in moderate fractions. Of course, the three times he has run were very fast and a repeat of those should win here. While HURRICANE J almost certainly has to go from PP #1, CAVE ROCK should have now issue stalking outside that one if he doesn’t get around first, and passing him on the far turn. Of the rest, NATURAL TREASURE has the natural speed to be a problem for him, but my guess is that here will one again cede the lead to his Baffert stablemate and try to run him down late. That seems unlikely. LOST ARK is “better than you think.” Had a disaster trip in last that can be discounted. His prior 2 races were really good. I think he has an outside shot at a huge price and will ue him in doubles and other multi race wagering. As for betting the race itself, I would bet this race in the following way: For $20 (baseline) I’d use: $10 Exacta: CAVE ROCK – LOST ARK 50 cent tri: CAVE ROCK – ALL- LOST ARK $3 Tri: CAVE ROCK - NATIONAL TREASURE – LOST ARK $3 Tri: CAVE ROCK – FORTE – LOST ARK …………… JUVENILE TURF SILVER KNOTT is considered the best of the Euros and is the betting favorite in Europe, but has only earned $100k for his first 5 races (including 3 wins) and his last three races have been against six, three, and six horses. This does not sound like the kind of favorite I am looking for. The 2 year old turf races have been relatively weak in California this year (and usually) but I am going to take a shot on PACKS A WAHLOP. For one, his last race was over a second faster than the Juv Filly grass stakes on the same day and he won for fun. Looks like maybe a legit horse. If Mike Smith can break with the horse just to his outside and be first around inside, I like his chances from there.