Due to the amazing feature in NFL Gamepass that let's you watch "compressed" games in 35 or 40 minutes, I was able to watch all of Sunday's action in less than the time that it would take to watch the two Sunday telecasts with commercials, reviews, and breaks between plays. Not sure that I can ever go back to spending 3 hours+ watching a game ..unless it's the Patriots in the play-offs and I want to feel the camaraderie of real-time viewing with friends. Anyway here are some observations from yesterday:
It IS time to panic in Cleveland: Generally, getting blown out in an early season game is not as bad as it seems at the time (see "on to Cincinnati") but this game had an ominous vibe to it. Certain organizations (like the Pats and Spurs) have demonstrated that setting the right organizational tone, and having super competent guys running the ship, is almost essential for any kind of prolonged success ...especially in the NFL when it "takes a village" as opposed to a couple of stars that dominate (like the NBA). One had to question the move of The Browns promoting Freddie Kitchens to the role of head coach despite almost no relevant experience (he'd never been a head coach at any level or an NFL coordinator). Naming a guy head coach because your outspoken and temperamental QB thinks its a good idea could be seen by detractors as "letting the inmates run the asylum" If you are a Browns fan, yesterday is your worst nightmare ,,, one of the most undisciplined performances seen in the NFL in a long time with ridiculous unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and a total of 18 penalties for 182 yards ...YIKES! Add in the fact that the O-line looked very shaky (who thought the Ziegler trade was a good idea with a short QB that needs protection up the middle?) and the Browns had to sell out to stop the run on "d" and thus exposed themselves to big plays through the air with man coverage and no safety help at all (from Marcus Mariota, nonetheless) and one could conclude that this all spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E. We''ll see. At the very least, the # of Browns Fans booking Super Bowl trips is plummeting.
The running game is alive and well in the NFL: What do all of the teams that had surprisingly effective offensive performances have in common? They all have extremely effective running games (at least as of now). Both in the aforementioned case of the Titans versus the Browns and the Ravens dismantling of the Dolphins (and the "coming out party" of one Lamar Jackson) the threat of the running game caused the opposing defense to expose themselves to one-on-one matchups with no safety help and easy reads / throws and catches. Jackson and Mariota may not be able to pick apart complicated zone packages, but give a guy one-on-ones in space with time to throw and almost any NFL QB will prosper. Of course, Jackson did even better than that and was deadly accurate with his throws. Marquise Brown looked like the star that he was at Oklahoma. The Ravens suddenly look dangerous (although they did beat a team that would be lucky to win 3 games this year ..we'll see what happens against a better opponent.
Meanwhile ...in Minnesota they didn't even bother with the passing part of it, It has been the Stephanski / Zimmer plan all along to combine a stingy "d" with an effective running game (with some Cousins play action sprinkled in), and after importing some help on the OL (including #1 pick Garrett Bradbury), enjoying relative health on the OL in addition to a healthy Delvin Cook ..the blueprint now looks pretty formidable. Rookie Alexander Mattison also looks like an effective option to spell Cook and keep him fresh. Don't sleep on the Vikings!
The Patriots are scary good Actually, this is no surprise to me. I've been telling anyone who would listen that this rookie class is the best of the Belichick era and the defense looked very physical and dominant in the pre-season. Et voila! The utter destruction of a Steelers team that could still win the AFC Central. The Antonio Brown gamble becomes even more significant now that it has been firmly established that The Pats were the team to beat without him. The only danger (other than an AB84 toxic meltdown) is that The Pats enjoyed an almost injury free 2nd half of last season. This year they are already down 2 starters on the one part of their team with limited depth ..the O-Line. It has been demonstrated time and again that the way to beat the Patriots is to force Brady "off the spot" with a conventional pass rush and make him uncomfortable. They may be one Isaiah Wynn injury away from a full blown OL crisis.
Jimmy G's enshrinement in Canton remains on hold: Another shaky day from the once heir apparent, and suddenly the fortunes of the 49ers (with their improved defense) are being held hostage by his relative incompetence. Can he revert to his form of 2017 or is the beginning of the Nick Mullens era closer than we think? Stay tuned.
No resolution to the Josh Allen enigma: Is Josh Allen the "glass half empty" guy would was inaccurate in college and at times seems like he couldn't the broadside of a barn (see 1st half versus Jets) or the "glass half full" guy, a natural leader in a proto-typical NFL body (including arm) who is destined to be a star once he improves his accuracy? Not sure ..although if forced to answer that question I'd probably choose the former ...it's not often that an inaccurate QB suddenly becomes accurate. Anyway, great comeback engineered by him yesterday (albeit against a hyper-conservative Jets offensive plan that almost completely ignored the space more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage). The Bills are an interesting team. Stout D and an emerging running game with a promising young back (for the love of God ..someone please tell Shawn McDermott & company that Frank Gore is 10 years past his prime). If Allen can hold it together, a wild card berth is not out of the question ..but then again, the "glass half empty" Josh Allen could throw them out of any chance of a winning season.
Shady McCoy looked relevant again ..... nice to see
The Jameis Winston / Bruce Arians pairing off to an ugly start: Some are calling for the heads of both Winston and Arians after Week One. Here is my take on the whole thing ... there is no denying the trend that play-action is the solution for many QBs who cannot thrive in an offense without a running game. There are so many QBs that are clearly better when presenting the dual threat of run / pass (Mariota, Jackson, Cousins, Goff quickly come to mind). Bruce Arians has made a career of building offenses around a running game and a complimentary vertical passing game off of play action. I guess the thinking in TB was that since Winston has decent stats on downfield throws, putting him in the Arians system might resurrect his career. However, I'm not buying it. TB tried this yesterday (run on running downs and throw off play action ..except there are two big issues with this 1) Tampa had one of the worst running games in the NFL last year. Granted, it was slightly better than that yesterday (and the first signs of the USC version of Ronald Jones were encouraging), but I have a tough time believing that there is much hope of the running game being a strength. As a result, they were left yesterday (especially with the addition of penalties) in a bunch of difficult down and distance situations ..and those didn't turn out well generally. 2) Winston doesn't seem like he will ever be effective taking snaps under center and then standing in the pocket and making traditional reads. He just doesn't seem comfortable or able to deliver the ball on time to the right place. I feel like putting him in this system is like putting a square peg in a round hole. It will be interesting to see if Arians ever reverts to the wide open, shotgun based approach from last year where Winston had some success (although it was a mixed bag ..he still turned the ball over a lot). He actually made some good throws yesterday on the move and from the gun ..but the disastrous interceptions are what everyone is focusing on. One of them was OJ Howard's fault ...another player that seems ill suited to a conventional approach... and the 2nd was a product of botched timing between Winston and Barber that lead to an easy Richard Sherman pick 6. The last one that broke the backs of TB ...that summarized everything that is discouraging about Winston in one play. Anyway, the point being ..Bruce, loosen up. Let him sling the ball around one last time, let the playmakers run around in space, help him to see the field better ...if (when?) he fails, at least it will be on his own terms.
Monday, September 9, 2019
Friday, May 3, 2019
The 2019 Kentucky Derby is wide open
(Disclaimer: I don't have much to say about this particular Derby. If I didn't already have a betting interest, then I would be betting very small, if at all. However, rather than continue to answer individual inquiries about what I like, it seemed more efficient to lay out my thought here).
Regarding my own interests, I bet ROADSTER in the future book at what I considered to be a good price at the time ...details here: https://mindfullydiscontent.blogspot.com/2019/04/roadster-worth-flier-in-kentucky-derby.html.
That aside, here is what I think of the race as it presents itself on Friday:
The 2019 Kentucky Derby is wide open. There is no Big Brown or American Pharoah or Justify that clearly seems like the horse to beat. The top contenders are all very close in terms of speed figures and resumes. One could argue that Omaha Beach was clearly best, but since the Morning Line favorite was scratched earlier this week there is no longer a clear cut favorite. However, the consensus opinion is that there are 5 who are a cut above the rest. My thoughts on these:
MAXIMUM SECURITY has been the fastest in the preps leading up to the Derby in that he comes in off an easy 4 length victory in The Florida Derby which has recently been, along with the Santa Anita Derby, the prep that has yielded the most Derby winners. In summary, I am against him for the following reasons 1) His Florida Derby was the product of a bizarre race shape when jockey Luis Saez was able to come down from the outside on the other early speed threats and force them to take back into the first turn, and then he slowed the race to a relative crawl down the backstretch. The horses coming from the back never had a chance due to the unusually slow early fractions 2) The Florida Derby happened in the middle of a CRAZY hot streak by trainer Jason Servis at Gulfstream Park where he won with more than 40% of the horses that he saddled. Amazing. One of the biggest meets in memory for a trainer at a major track. I'm thinking MAXIMUM SECURITY's performance at Gulfstream was aided by this. 3) My gut tells me that he is not suited to the demanding 1&1/4 mile distance of the Derby...although the jury is still out on his sire New Year's Day. There are reasons to bet this one, but I would let him beat me at single digit odds.
IMPROBABLE (one of three Baffert trained horse of these top five) has been fast and was only beaten a length by the aforementioned OMAHA BEACH. He has the advantage of a first rate mud pedigree, and a huge race over the track on the Breeders Cup undercard last fall. He could be the favorite, especially if it rains. I'm against this one as well because 1) His pedigree on the sire side is definitely not suited to the distance 2) I don't like his temperament....he is very unruly. He figures to be sitting behind MAXIMUM SECURITY and WAR OF WILL in the early going on the inside and I don't trust in his ability to settle calmly and make one big run to catch the leaders in a big field and with 100,000+ bourbon crazed patrons on either side of him. He has had clear aim on the leaders in his preps and will have to find a good trip here to have a chance. Pass.
TACITUS is one of the ones that figures. Huge race in the Wood after getting slammed into the first turn. Has the look of one who wants to go long. Post outside the primary speed looks decent. Has to be strongly considered. If I were betting, I might use this one.
..........................
Regarding the other two, it is interesting to consider the projected race shape now that Omaha Beach is out. It is from this that I would probably form my final opinion.
Both #1 WAR OF WILL and #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY seem like they will be intent to be on the pace. #2 TAX figures to be forwardly placed. I'm not sure that #4 Gray Magician has any other option and could be fast enough to lead if he is pushed early ..although that hasn't been the recent strategy with this one. Anyway, from MAXIMUM SECURITY in, there will be a scramble for early position.
However from #8 TACITUS out to #18 LONG RANGE TODDY there doesn't seem to be anyone who is a strong candidate for the leading group (with the 6 from TACITUS out to #15 MASTER FENCER lacking early speed)
As a result there should be a pocket of space between the inside horses and #19 SPINOFF who could theoretically make a run at the lead and #21 BODEXPRESS who will almost surely make a run at the lead.
So that leaves some room for #15 GAME WINNER and #16 ROADSTER to possibly find a clean trip sitting in the pocket between the two groups of early speed horses and one of them could end up in perfect striking position headed down the backstretch
My top two choices are the ones who battled in the Santa Anita Derby and finished within a half length of each other (both come from the Baffert barn, winner of 2 Triple Crowns in the last 5 years).
While GAME WINNER was defeated that day, he seems like the most logical winner tomorrow (It's funny that I would say this, as I'd always planned to stand against this horse as a 3 year old). Here are the reasons: 1) He had a huge win over the track in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (and was thus crowned 2 year old champ) 2) He has been aiming for this race all season and may have a performance pattern that is set to top in this race. 3) If it rains, he has an ideal mud pedigree on both sides. I don't love this one, and wouldn't be excited to bet him as favorite, but objectively he has the best chance.
Obviously ROADSTER is my bet (from 20-1 in early April). My case for him in the Santa Anita Derby is made in the link at the top of the page, and on that day he beat a heavily favored GAME WINNER. He sure seems fast enough to win (he beat the choice last out) but the primary negatives are:
1) He has had less than the ideal amount of preparation for this race. JUSTIFY bucked this trend last year but he is what Baffert called "a superior racehorse" ...ROADSTER is not in his category (as of yet).
2) The horse is small ..I'm not sure how he will feel in a 19 horse field with bumping and traffic. The post draw (and potential space as explained above) seems helpful ..but we'll see if that translates to a clean trip.
3) Unlike some others here, he is unproven in the mud (has never raced on off track). His sire side pedigree is decent for this but still a question.
I think he has a solid chance ..but probably not the best chance. He is currently 10-1 which seems much too high ...and is a definite play at 8-1 or higher. If he gets down near his morning line of 6-1, then there is a decision to be made.
For those searching to "get rich quick" my favorite longshot is #1 WAR OF WILL. He got a big break when the field was narrowed to 19 by the two scratches, and all of the horses inside the scratches moved over one gate position. He is now breaking out of the #2 post and not the dreaded #1 (which creates a tough angle to actually get on to the track in the early going). If you toss his horrible Louisiana Derby there is some stuff to like including:
1) A solid win over the track 2) The pedigree to run all day 3) A solid mud line from the Danzig side (although his sire himself has not been exceptional in his area early in his career) 4) "The Calvin Borel factor." Calvin was famous for riding the path right up against the rail and there are those who swear that that path, for the first 4 feet or so, is the best place to be on a wet Churchill Downs track. WAR OF WILL has the speed to chose his path coming out of the gate ...what if he finds the fastest part of the track all the way around (a big "if" as few jockeys are comfortable riding that close to the rail). Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked if WAR OF WILL ran well.
FYI here are the two Calvin rail riding wins in the Derby on "off" tracks:
2009 MINE THAT BIRD (such a longshot that the best racecaller in America didn't even recognize him until he was well in front https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv8x9x5A49s Came from WAY back.
2010 SUPER SAVER this one is cool because you can see in the overhead down the backstretch just how close that Calvin is to the rail, and when he strays even a bit from hugging the rail in the stretch, Calvin visibly tugs him back up against it to stay on what he believes is the best part of the track https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYUQhefukU4
So that's it for this year. Again take all of this with a grain of salt as I'm not so confident in my conclusions and won't bet beyond what I am already locked in to. Good luck ...may the horse be with you!
Regarding my own interests, I bet ROADSTER in the future book at what I considered to be a good price at the time ...details here: https://mindfullydiscontent.blogspot.com/2019/04/roadster-worth-flier-in-kentucky-derby.html.
That aside, here is what I think of the race as it presents itself on Friday:
The 2019 Kentucky Derby is wide open. There is no Big Brown or American Pharoah or Justify that clearly seems like the horse to beat. The top contenders are all very close in terms of speed figures and resumes. One could argue that Omaha Beach was clearly best, but since the Morning Line favorite was scratched earlier this week there is no longer a clear cut favorite. However, the consensus opinion is that there are 5 who are a cut above the rest. My thoughts on these:
MAXIMUM SECURITY has been the fastest in the preps leading up to the Derby in that he comes in off an easy 4 length victory in The Florida Derby which has recently been, along with the Santa Anita Derby, the prep that has yielded the most Derby winners. In summary, I am against him for the following reasons 1) His Florida Derby was the product of a bizarre race shape when jockey Luis Saez was able to come down from the outside on the other early speed threats and force them to take back into the first turn, and then he slowed the race to a relative crawl down the backstretch. The horses coming from the back never had a chance due to the unusually slow early fractions 2) The Florida Derby happened in the middle of a CRAZY hot streak by trainer Jason Servis at Gulfstream Park where he won with more than 40% of the horses that he saddled. Amazing. One of the biggest meets in memory for a trainer at a major track. I'm thinking MAXIMUM SECURITY's performance at Gulfstream was aided by this. 3) My gut tells me that he is not suited to the demanding 1&1/4 mile distance of the Derby...although the jury is still out on his sire New Year's Day. There are reasons to bet this one, but I would let him beat me at single digit odds.
IMPROBABLE (one of three Baffert trained horse of these top five) has been fast and was only beaten a length by the aforementioned OMAHA BEACH. He has the advantage of a first rate mud pedigree, and a huge race over the track on the Breeders Cup undercard last fall. He could be the favorite, especially if it rains. I'm against this one as well because 1) His pedigree on the sire side is definitely not suited to the distance 2) I don't like his temperament....he is very unruly. He figures to be sitting behind MAXIMUM SECURITY and WAR OF WILL in the early going on the inside and I don't trust in his ability to settle calmly and make one big run to catch the leaders in a big field and with 100,000+ bourbon crazed patrons on either side of him. He has had clear aim on the leaders in his preps and will have to find a good trip here to have a chance. Pass.
TACITUS is one of the ones that figures. Huge race in the Wood after getting slammed into the first turn. Has the look of one who wants to go long. Post outside the primary speed looks decent. Has to be strongly considered. If I were betting, I might use this one.
..........................
Regarding the other two, it is interesting to consider the projected race shape now that Omaha Beach is out. It is from this that I would probably form my final opinion.
Both #1 WAR OF WILL and #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY seem like they will be intent to be on the pace. #2 TAX figures to be forwardly placed. I'm not sure that #4 Gray Magician has any other option and could be fast enough to lead if he is pushed early ..although that hasn't been the recent strategy with this one. Anyway, from MAXIMUM SECURITY in, there will be a scramble for early position.
However from #8 TACITUS out to #18 LONG RANGE TODDY there doesn't seem to be anyone who is a strong candidate for the leading group (with the 6 from TACITUS out to #15 MASTER FENCER lacking early speed)
As a result there should be a pocket of space between the inside horses and #19 SPINOFF who could theoretically make a run at the lead and #21 BODEXPRESS who will almost surely make a run at the lead.
So that leaves some room for #15 GAME WINNER and #16 ROADSTER to possibly find a clean trip sitting in the pocket between the two groups of early speed horses and one of them could end up in perfect striking position headed down the backstretch
My top two choices are the ones who battled in the Santa Anita Derby and finished within a half length of each other (both come from the Baffert barn, winner of 2 Triple Crowns in the last 5 years).
While GAME WINNER was defeated that day, he seems like the most logical winner tomorrow (It's funny that I would say this, as I'd always planned to stand against this horse as a 3 year old). Here are the reasons: 1) He had a huge win over the track in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (and was thus crowned 2 year old champ) 2) He has been aiming for this race all season and may have a performance pattern that is set to top in this race. 3) If it rains, he has an ideal mud pedigree on both sides. I don't love this one, and wouldn't be excited to bet him as favorite, but objectively he has the best chance.
Obviously ROADSTER is my bet (from 20-1 in early April). My case for him in the Santa Anita Derby is made in the link at the top of the page, and on that day he beat a heavily favored GAME WINNER. He sure seems fast enough to win (he beat the choice last out) but the primary negatives are:
1) He has had less than the ideal amount of preparation for this race. JUSTIFY bucked this trend last year but he is what Baffert called "a superior racehorse" ...ROADSTER is not in his category (as of yet).
2) The horse is small ..I'm not sure how he will feel in a 19 horse field with bumping and traffic. The post draw (and potential space as explained above) seems helpful ..but we'll see if that translates to a clean trip.
3) Unlike some others here, he is unproven in the mud (has never raced on off track). His sire side pedigree is decent for this but still a question.
I think he has a solid chance ..but probably not the best chance. He is currently 10-1 which seems much too high ...and is a definite play at 8-1 or higher. If he gets down near his morning line of 6-1, then there is a decision to be made.
For those searching to "get rich quick" my favorite longshot is #1 WAR OF WILL. He got a big break when the field was narrowed to 19 by the two scratches, and all of the horses inside the scratches moved over one gate position. He is now breaking out of the #2 post and not the dreaded #1 (which creates a tough angle to actually get on to the track in the early going). If you toss his horrible Louisiana Derby there is some stuff to like including:
1) A solid win over the track 2) The pedigree to run all day 3) A solid mud line from the Danzig side (although his sire himself has not been exceptional in his area early in his career) 4) "The Calvin Borel factor." Calvin was famous for riding the path right up against the rail and there are those who swear that that path, for the first 4 feet or so, is the best place to be on a wet Churchill Downs track. WAR OF WILL has the speed to chose his path coming out of the gate ...what if he finds the fastest part of the track all the way around (a big "if" as few jockeys are comfortable riding that close to the rail). Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked if WAR OF WILL ran well.
FYI here are the two Calvin rail riding wins in the Derby on "off" tracks:
2009 MINE THAT BIRD (such a longshot that the best racecaller in America didn't even recognize him until he was well in front https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv8x9x5A49s Came from WAY back.
2010 SUPER SAVER this one is cool because you can see in the overhead down the backstretch just how close that Calvin is to the rail, and when he strays even a bit from hugging the rail in the stretch, Calvin visibly tugs him back up against it to stay on what he believes is the best part of the track https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYUQhefukU4
So that's it for this year. Again take all of this with a grain of salt as I'm not so confident in my conclusions and won't bet beyond what I am already locked in to. Good luck ...may the horse be with you!
Saturday, April 27, 2019
Patriots 2019 Post Draft Commentary
Thoughts and Observations regarding the Pats' 2019 draft ....
I'll admit it...I spent too much time thinking about the 2019 NFL draft. I am writing this because I need closure, and to move on with my life. Thanks for indulging me ;)
Given that the Patriots could win #6 with the talent level on last year's team, the message is clear: you can't count this dynasty out until they have been beaten on the field.
Of course, this off-season has not been kind to the Pats. They lost a lot more than they got back in free agency (I included a "backstory of off season" at bottom of this report). Suffice to say, the Patriots really need a big yield from this draft due to the amount of present holes from Free Agency defections and Gronk's retirement. It would seem that the Pats are in big trouble if they don't get at least a few solid contributors from this draft (especially #1 pick N'Keal Henry).
My Post Draft Review:
In short, I LOVE this draft by the Pats. Hard to envision how it could have turned out better (on paper).
The two things that stand out are:
- CHARACTER - At the top of the draft at least, the Pats were able to get guys who were leaders and favorites of their respective coaches. There were several "Just grateful to have a chance / believe in the system and just want to do whatever I can to help the team / excited to get to work" type of interviews to solidify the coaches' recommendations. It's good that the Pats could get these sorts of players AND simultaneously get guys who delivered on the field commensurate with where they were picked (or better).
- FIT - The five guys that I have an opinion on, and are highlighted below, seem to be nearly perfect fits for specific Patriots needs.
1st round / #32 N'KEAL HARRY (WR) Arizona State - With all of the WR depth in this draft, it stood to reason that the Pats were going to wait and use one of the late 2nd or early 3rd round picks to fill this major need. Instead the Pats opted to take the highest guy on their board (and only 2nd WR picked in the whole draft... after undersized "Hollywood" Brown, Kyler Murray's favorite target at Oklahoma).
If the Pats were posting a Help Wanted ad for this job it would have read, "The ideal candidate would have the following attributes":
- First rate character (as mentioned above). Herm Edwards, his college coach, is a big fan
- Elite productivity in college and the ability to start at in-line receiver on Day One in the NFL
- Flexibility to both be a deep threat and to run the whole route tree
- Game breaking potential in the open field (to replace a lot of what Patterson provided last year)
- Physical down field run blocking to support the emerging reliance on the power running game.
It seems improbable that one could find such a guy in any draft (one that checks ALL of the boxes), but that is exactly what Harry is. Amazing! The main knock on him is that he doesn't have elite speed like DK Metcalf, but this isn't a trait that the Pats value highly anyway. Even without breakaway speed, he is a big danger to break one after the catch or by winning contested downfield catches like DeAndre Hopkins (who also doesn't have elite speed).
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): A
2nd round / #45 Joejuan Williams (WR) Vanderbilt - The Pats paid a solid price for Williams in that they gave up a late 3rd rounder, just to move up 11 spots to draft a guy that was the #50 prospect on Mel Kiper's board. However, I am speculating that this will turn out to be a great pick for the Pats and here is why ....
Williams is an unusually big, physical corner (6'4" 211) who can cover in zone and man (especially press coverage). The shortcoming that prevents him from being an elite prospect (and high 1st round pick) is the lack of first rate make up speed, and that means he can be beaten deep if left on an island in man coverage. BUT the Pats already have that shut-down / out on an island corner in All Pro Stephon Gilmore. So why pick this guy so high?
I see this as one of those Belichick "visionary" moves ...where he perceives value and employs it prior to anyone else. One of the major offensive trends of the last 5-10 years has been very athletic Tight Ends becoming a significant part of the passing game. When the chips were down, in the AFC Championship game versus the Chiefs, the Pats had to move their most valuable defensive "chess piece" over to cover Travis Kelce, the most dangerous of this new breed of TEs. Why? He is a match-up nightmare ...too big for the great majority of corners to cover. At 6'1 202 Gilmore is the Patriots' biggest corner (and their biggest defensive back along with Duron Harmon) and so he was the man for the job. While Harmon and Patrick Chung are tough and reliable, neither is an especially effective cover guy.
So enter Williams and his unique skill set / big body (for a corner). While he may not be the best guy in the NFL to cover elite receivers one-on-one, what about bringing him out in all sub packages including "big nickel" (which is often their base defense against opponents with limited running games). Is there are guy who is theoretically better suited to cover these TEs and big possession receivers who lack home run speed? Could this guy become one of the best in the game at a specific role ..and one that is growing in importance? Maybe we will get a test of this in the 2nd half of the year against 2 of the 3 most dangerous pass catching TEs (Kelce and Zach Ertz of Philly). Would the Pats dare give him some snaps opposite JuJu (very big but not elite fast) in the opener against Pittsburgh?
My evaluation includes several assumptions / factors: 1) Williams supposedly had a long meeting in NE including a film session with Bill ..they must have really liked what they learned about him (to move up aggressively) 2) Bill has guessed right (and I have guessed right about Bill guessing right) that this guy may be a very valuable contributor ..just not in the way that you would figure that a highly rated corner would contribute (as shut down corner). 3) Very slight downgrade for draft capital expended to move up and draft this guy
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): A-
3rd round / #77 Chase Winovich (DE) Michigan
Mel Kiper's #44 prospect, the Pats let him drop all the way to #77 despite what seems to be a really good match for their system. This turns a good pick into a great pick.
It's hard to see Winovich and not make the immediate comparison to Rob Ninkovitch. Both Big 10 guys, both undersized DEs:
Winovich - Much faster, quicker, more productive in college
Ninkovitch - Much more disciplined, efficient executor of Bill's vision for DE in 4-3
The present Pats could really use peak Rob Ninkovitch. If Bill can teach Winovich to play more under control and execute the gameplan, then he has a higher ceiling. Maybe also has value similar to his doppleganger Clay Matthews as a pass rusher from the 2nd level given his similar speed and excellent hand technique?
He slipped in the draft due to questions regarding him having a high ceiling as a classic 4-3 edge rusher. Pats don't care as much about this ...as they generally use their ends differently anyway. He seems like another amazing fit.
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): A+
3rd round / #87 Damien Harris (RB) Alabama
Pats (incorrectly) perceived to be well set in backfield prior to draft. However, if the Pats are going to continue their successful playoff trend of leaning on the power running game, then there will be a lot of tough yards to be made between the tackles this year. History shows that running backs counted on to play a "bell-cow" role in such a running attack rarely make it through the regular season AND a deep playoff run without obvious signs of wear along the way (a similar issue with Todd Gurley arguably cost the Rams the Super Bowl). Hence, the Pats needed someone to take a solid chunk of these tough yards carries so that Sony Michel still has something left in the tank when it matters. Given his injury history and profile, Burkhead alone can't be counted on to shoulder that load. Then what? Bolden? Doesn't seem ideal.
Enter one Damien Harris. He does not seem like an elite prospect or a threat to win Rookie of the Year, but he fits this specific need perfectly. He is a bruising, between the tackles runner who was very productive in college ...but because Saban spreads the carries among multiple backs, he still has "tread left on the tires" In addition,to being able to gain the tough years, he also practices first rate ball security (0 fumbles in 172 touches senior year) ...which is obviously the highest priority for a Patriots back.
Fits a specific Patriots need very well. Good, but not spectacular, pick.
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): B
4th Round / #133 Jarrett Stidham QB Auburn
This video is made by a young QB who is a very astute observer of QB play (I highly recommend):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USCQIDX38Hk&list=PLbA9kEBowLYyvaeJWFN-avnEn4wCYbmr_&index=5
The majority of my opinions are contained therein, but to further elaborate:
Strengths:
- Low interception rate. Two year career as starter: 11 interceptions in 739 passing attempts (That in arguably the best defensive division / conference, the SEC West).
- Had success as a junior losing only to (at the time): #3 Clemson, #6 Georgia, #10 UCF and LSU. Beat #1 (and eventual champs) Alabama and #2 Georgia. Was Heisman trophy candidate coming into 2018 season.
Issues:
- In contrast to top picks Murray (Oklahoma) and Haskins (Ohio State) who played for coaches with first rate offensive minds, in pro type schemes, and with lots of receiving weapons, Stidham did not go through a program that prepped him well for the pros and he is definitely not presently prepared to play in the NFL.
Fortunately, in the case of the Patriots, his year #1 has close to zero value (with Brady taking all of the snaps) and near zero value for year 2 (assuming Brady sticks around at least until then). Therefore, let's say he has 2 years to learn, at least, before being thrown to the wolves. One would think that a lot of improvement could happen between now and then if he is the goods.
My personal evaluation (as a developmental QB, aiming to start year #3 soonest):
I don't like this QB class much for the Pats. Of the day 2-3 guys ...
DREW LOCK just doesn't seem to have the head to be a good NFL QB despite arm strength.
WILL GRIER and RYAN FINLEY both seem to have arm limitations and may be close to their ceilings already
However, one can visualize conditions under which JARRETT STIDHAM could improve dramatically. He is going to need to learn to play QB in an NFL offense ...but he has time. He seems to have his head on squarely, and his arm and mechanics seem to be adequate. So given the Pats have a need and excess draft capital ...why not take a shot with him?
GRADE (considering expected value to Patriots / versus draft position): B+
.................................................
OTHER PICKS:
3rd round / Yodny Cajuste / OT West Virginia - No opinion except Pats desperately need OT depth. Good for need. Hopefully coach Scar can spin his magic once again.
4th round / Hjalte Froholdt / OG Arkansas - No opinion
5th round / Byron Cowart / DT Maryland - No opinion except is presently a position of need and he was an elite prospect out of high school who admittedly got cocky and didn't work so hard early on. Maybe he will bust his ass in productive environment and return to a high level? Worth noting that they traded up a bit to get this guy.
5th round / Jake Bailey / P Stanford - Traded up to get a punter? A right footed punter? In the 5th round? Interesting. Positives besides his excellent leg: He can get the ball off very quickly and avoid blocks. Can kick-off (a weakness for the Pats recently). Best of all, Bill gets to do some talking about his favorite subject ...punters. What fun ...punter talk!! Oh yeah, his cover photo has him with his shoelaces up near his face... making him look very similar to a young Ray Guy. Did the Pats draft the next Ray Guy? Bill's blood is pumping.
7th round / Ken Webster / CB Ole Miss - Unearthing useful corners from the depths of the draft and the undrafted is a strength of the Pats brain trust. Let's hope they strike gold again.
............................
BACKSTORY OF OFF-SEASON
BIG losses:
- TRENT BROWN held down the LT spot as well as anyone could have hoped (and thus got PAID)
- TREY FLOWERS one of the two big impact players on "d" along with Gilmore
- GRONK (we probably need him to come out of retirement mid-season to win #7)
Meaningful losses:
- MALCOLM BROWN had a good year and a better playoffs (and SB). Solid DT contributor
- CORDARRELLE PATTERSON made lots of small contributions (KR, back-up RB in a pinch, effective jet sweep / bubble screens) that in aggregate were a meaningful contribution
- LaADRIAN WADDLE didn't do much in 2018, but was an important 2017 fill-in when Marcus Cannon, and later Cameron Fleming, went down. This loss made them dangerously thin at OT in the short-term
Other considerations:
DANNY SHELTON remains unsigned. Would be good to have him back in run stuffing role. Even better Ndamukong Suh is still out there. This seems like #1 guy the Pats would be targeting after the May 7th compensatory free agent deadline (They don't want to sign an impact free agent before that, because it cut into the haul of compensatory picks that they will get as a result of their net losses in 2019 Free Agency
CHRIS HOGAN can't be considered a meaningful loss because the Pats basically let him go (signed a reportedly inexpensive one year deal with Carolina). One would have thought that Hogan would have forward looking value for Pats, but management felt otherwise ...and those guys seem to be decent decision makers.
.......
BIG additions:
MICHAEL BENNETT ...let's hope he can play for the Patriots like he played against the Patriots in prior meetings (does he have enough left in the tank at age 33?)
Others:
AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS is what he is at this point in his career. Best you can hope for is below average performer as an NFL starter ...but that is best they can hope for.
DEMARYIUS THOMAS is on the decline and no longer a solid #1 or #2 receiver. Potentially solid fill in for depth once he returns, and reportedly good teammate / mentor
MIKE PENNEL is someone I am not familiar with. Didn't notice him in contests versus the Jets. Maybe solid depth
Returning from Injury:
ISAIAH WYNN had better be a starting level NFL Left Tackle or that could be a problem. Also, difficult injury to recover from (Achilles tear) and there is little known about the current state of his re-hab
JA'WHAUN BENTLEY was a BEAST last year. Can't wait for him to come back. Looks like Pro Bowl potential. Should be major contributor.
Monday, January 28, 2019
All things Patriots prior to 2019 Superbowl....
Well, here we are again. Consider me among those who had left the Pats for dead in September (for me the final blow was losing promising LB Ja'Whaun Bentley for the year). At that point, I considered them too old, slow, and thin to compete for a championship. However, something miraculous transpired between then and now ...the Patriots suffered ZERO important injuries (in terms of losing guys to IR for playoffs). ZERO! This has to be the healthiest run of a veteran team in recent memory. It's as if the Gods of the Gridiron have conspired against all odds to get Bill and Brady a 6th ring and cement them as the greatest dynasty in the history of American sports.
Below are some of the correspondences to friends during the 2019 playoffs (for those who can't get enough Pats talk / analysis before this monumental game). Enjoy!
Quick take on Super Bowl match-up with The Rams on the day after the conference championships:
Offense:
1) Despite using personnel (3WR) that usually "spreads" the formation, the Rams often line up in a tight formation leaving a lot of room between the outside guy and sideline on both sides. All 11 players will frequently be bunched in only 40%-ish of the field. This leaves a lot of space on the perimeter for the Rams to isolate their playmakers in space, and this is the main innovation of their offense.
2) The 90s Broncos Zone running game. They will bunch the formation, then sometimes "stretch" you horizontally once the play starts while the RB will look for the "one cut" into the hole that opens as the stretching occurs ...often to a cut-back lane. Discipline in sliding over laterally but "staying in lanes / gaps" is crucial to defending this running style.
NOTE: In the Saints game, the Rams used a lot of "12" personnel (double TE) for the first time that I've seen, especially running with the FAT BACK (CJ Anderson) and mostly in the 2nd half.
Some things they like to do:
1) Run the aforementioned "stretch" play
2) Run a guy in motion and race him across towards the open space near the opposite sideline and then get him the ball there with lots of room to operate
3) Ditto with motion but jet sweep where the guy who takes it is in a footrace towards the empty space. (very similar to Pats here, but often with more space for runner)
4) Run lots of pick plays in the congestion created by the bunching, especially on the two receiver side (which often also has a TE). The bunch is more frequently on the right side.
5) Run crossers where the target ends up going through the defense and out the other side (since he is lined up in tight) and will catch the ball headed into space near sideline.
6) Run that "in and out" route that Edelman loves, and towards the space out near the sideline.
7) Give "sell-out" run action one way (complete with pulling linemen) and run Goff on a naked bootleg the other way having receiver(s) run into the empty space in front of him.
8) Run deep square-in ...maybe 15 yards.
A couple of things I would consider doing to defend them:
1) NEVER let Goff break contain to the right and roll into that empty space....their passing game is most dangerous when this happens. (Also prefer him not to escape to the left, but he seems slightly less effective rolling that way). This seems like something that Bill would make a high priority.
2) Jam Brandin Cooks when he lines up on the line of scrimmage. Similarly, I assume that Bill is all over this one as he has tons of experience and game tape from last year where Cooks got manhandled by aggressive press coverage while a Patriot. Note: I wouldn't be surprised if Rams make a plan to potentially counter this (if pressing is effective) by backing Cooks off the line and putting him in motion more than they usually do to prevent the press
MY KEYS TO THE GAME:
1) The Rams DTs, especially Aaron Donald versus Pats O-Line. He seems like the Pats worst defensive nightmare. The one consistent key to beating Brady over the years has been to "knock him off the spot" with a basic 4 man pass rush and prevent him from getting comfortable and properly striding into his throws. The Giants effectively collapsed the pocket in the middle in both Super Bowl wins as underdogs. This game could be a repeat of that as Donald is one of the best interior pass rushers in the history of the game. The interior of the Pats line (Thuney / Andrews / Mason) will be tested, for sure.
The good news in this is that I consider Shaq Mason to be one of the NFL's most underrated players and one of the top guards in the league (Pro Football Focus agrees with me and named him the All-Pro RG this year). Intuitively he seems well suited to deal with Donald's extreme power and low center of gravity. Thuney and Andrews have also had good years. This may be the place where this game is decided. I expect Donald to line up primarily in the gaps next to Thuney and avoid Shaq as much as possible.
2) Brady's ability to get into comfortable rhythm. See above point. If Brady can't set his feet and step through throws he is a different QB. His "pocket presence" and ability to sidestep interior rushers to find a safe zone figures to be a key to the passing game in this one. If Brady can play with the comfort that we saw against KC (the 2018 NFL sack leaders) the Pats figure to win ring #6.
3) Todd Gurley Clearly he hasn't been his best self after re-aggravating the knee injury. The explosiveness just hasn't been there in the play-offs and it seems to have messed with his confidence and concentration On his "A" game, he would be a big, big problem for the Patriots ...an athletic, dual threat pass catching back. Kareem Hunt killed the Pats in their two meetings. NFL afterthoughts Damien Williams and Jaylen Samuels both made significant contributions as 3rd stringers forced to take the lead role versus the Pats.
FAT BACK CJ Anderson has performed admirably in his stead, consistently picking up tough yards between the hash marks, but he is neither a huge pass catching threat nor does he have the speed to be dangerous on the perimeter or at the 2nd level. Against New Orleans, Anderson got the majority of touches (Gurley was almost exclusively a decoy in the last 3 quarters). I think a repeat of this would be very good for the Patriots chances. Rams fans will be hoping that the extra 2 weeks will help Gurley's knee to heal further and allow a return close to his top form. (Late addition: Maybe the huge move in the betting line suggest that the "smart money" thinks that Gurley will be a limited factor?)
4) Wade Phillips The last time that the Patriots failed to reach the Super Bowl, Phillips was the architect of the attacking defense that consistently got to, and rattled, Brady and held the Pats to only 18 points (and subsequently held Carolina to 10 in the Super Bowl). He is a worthy adversary for Brady and McDaniels. The good news for the Pats is that coach Scar has returned to lead the O-line and the personnel this time around is highly superior to that of the 2016 AFC championship. Cannon is back as is a much improved Shaq Mason. In addition, 2016 featured Vollmer who was a bit out of place at LT, a back-up LG in Josh Kline, and Bryan Stork who was beaten out at Center by David Andrews the next year. This group of Brown/Thuney/Andrews/Mason/Cannon seems like a huge improvement over the one from 3 years ago.
The main similarity between the Patriots and Rams:
The Pats and Rams have had the two healthiest O-Lines in the NFL this season (in terms of % plays by original starters) and as a result have arguably the best O-lines at present largely due to continuity
A commentary on Bill as GM:
Random thought on a factor that i've never heard mentioned ....would be interesting to do a quant study on this: In what personnel area do the Patriots excel year-after-year? Not the draft (although all other dynasties in SB era drafted exceptional core teams across the board). Rather, Bill's strength has been the lack of "dead cap" or contracts that count against the salary cap where the player is not contributing (often has left team entirely). How many big contracts can you think of that the Patriots have had to eat for poor performance or injury? Bill has a knack for not signing bad long term deals,
As of now Patriots 2019 "dead cap" for guys no longer with the team is less than $600k !! By contrast, the same # for the Bills in 2018 was well over $60 million. That bodes well for Pats chances at remaining competitive next year despite the aging of the core (although they'd better retain Flowers, he seems essential)
Also, the one year "prove it" deal under market in the NFL has to be the best value in sports in that you have both a healthy body and a cheap salary...and no chance to get stuck with "dead cap" for years to come. Bill has been the master of this. Would be interesting to see a list of these guys for Pats over the years, especially on defense. Revis is obviously the gold standard but there are lots of others like Chris Long who made solid contributions.
Some quick thoughts after watching Pats-Chiefs game film:
- Forgotten in the post game euphoria ... Brady missed a bunch of easy throws, and could have easily had 3 interceptions.
- The play call and execution on that first quarter interception by Reggie Ragland in the end zone was almost as bad as the Marshawn Lynch debacle. The Pats marched down the field twice by running the ball straight down KC's throat, and then on 3rd and goal inside the 1 yard line they run a pass into the teeth of the defense, and Brady throws into heavy coverage? If you are going to pass in that situation instead of run it again (or 2 more times including 4th down) then it has to be a total run sell with somebody like an unused tight end sneaking off uncovered. That INT completely changed the complexion of that game.
- I've come to the late season conclusion that the unsung hero on this team (and the AFC play-off MVP on defense) is Kyle Van Noy. He is what Hightower used to be. Made a ton of plays on Sunday. Flowers also shined (as usual)
- The O-line was insanely good. Brady did whatever he wanted to in addition to the first half run dominance. Shaq Mason is the best Patriots guard since John Hannah. If he blocks you then you stay blocked. He is also one of the very best at pulling and leading the play in space.
On the Eve of "The Last Stand" .... commentary prior to Divisional Round versus the Chargers:
Seems to me that, despite all the shortcomings of this team, there is a potential road to the Super Bowl now ....
Thinking back to the draft, it seemed fairly certain that Bill had decided "Brady is old and Gronk is old (the idea of Bill shopping him in off-season certainly makes more sense in retrospect ) and it's difficult to see this team winning by going up-and-down the field by passing almost exclusively,"
....so they draft a mauler OT (or probably OG) and an RB in the first round, they keep (don't cut...although that may be for dead cap reasons) their arguably overpaid run blocking TE Allen, and they give an extension to FB Develin. Potential Conclusion: When the chips are down this (last?) time around, maybe Bill (and Josh) are planning to use the run as their primary strategy ...and try to throw off play action and out of favorable down / distance scenarios?
It's interesting to look back at the run / pass breakdown of the offense from last 5 years:
SEASON PASS PLAY % & NFL RANK LAST 3 GAME PASS%
2014 Won SB Seattle (16th 59.59%) (61.76%)
2015 Lost Conf Denver (3rd 65.00%) (68.98%)
2016 Won SB Atlanta (27th 56.41%) (65.80%)
2017 Lost SB Philly (10th 59.78%) (68.08%)
2018 This Year (26th 55.45% (50.26% ...but these are regular season)
They went through the year in 2016-17 running a disproportionate amount of the time, but abandoned that in the playoffs and SB. In fact, in all of the last 3 years, they relied almost exclusively on the pass in the playoffs.
OK back to the point ...so while there is no predicting the outcome of an NFL season, especially given injuries, let's say that Bill felt pre-season that the the most likely outcome was exactly the one that has presented itself ...the Pats are going to need to run it to advance. Could the situation have possibly shaped up any better?
- Could one have expected the "d" to have played much better with basically the same personnel?
- Could one have hoped that the Pats would have incurred NO significant injuries to non rookies?
- Could one have hoped for better than a sub-freezing game against a So-Cal team that is racking up frequent flyer miles at an unprecedented rate for January?
- Could one have imagined in their wildest dream that the dominant AFC team would have one of the historically worst run "d's?"
So I guess on this basis ..the Pats are right where they wanted to be? Could it have worked out much better?
Anyway those are my (potentially delusional) pre-game thoughts / hopes. For THIS team to go to the SB ....that would be something indeed.
Seis Loco Chicas
On Saturday evening I was settled into a good rhythm in my writing. While my neighbor and friend Kathia, a masseuse at the nearby yoga and wellness resort, had previously discussed going downtown to the disco, I was content to stay home and make the most of the productive state that I found myself in.
At 7:30PM, I got a call from Kathia, actually a call to my landlord who then ran the phone over to my space. Was I ready? Her girlfriends and I were driving to a small town in the countryside for some Latin style dancing (as opposed to the reggaeton downtown). Despite my protests of working, and not wanting to make a long night of it, the decision was made. The girls were going dancing and I was coming. Period. I was reluctantly granted a half hour to tie up the loose ends in my output from that day, and then off we went.
I jumped on the back of Kathia's motorcyle and we drove over the rolling hills that connect Montezuma and Cobano. The road was mostly loose dirt that would turn into a cloud of dust with every passing car, and Kathia was concerned that her make-up job was turning into a dust mask.
When we arrived in Cobano, we picked up Kathia's car and her two friends and headed off to Coyote. Google maps has the directions as 39 kilometers and an hour and twenty minutes over "unnamed roads" which are uncharted by google. We drove in total darkness over badly washboarded roads. Kathia's small two wheel drive utility vehicle has seen a lot of wear and complained loudly and hesitated when we would climb hills. It sounded like a ball joint or something similar was ready to give out at any moment, but on we went until we reached a river that was running across the road and was obviously uncrossable, and we were forced to backtrack for the 30 minutes or so to Cobano to pick another road and start again.
In town, we met another carload of girls and together we embarked on a second attempt to cross the uncharted expanse. Again very bad, remote dirt roads. Not a car or a light of any form for very long stretches. We came to another river, sized up the prospects, and then drove over the optimal crossing path. Another river, another crossing. Several times I had serious doubts about whether we could actually get across, especially the 2nd vehicle which was a small sedan and lower to the ground than ours. However, any questions to me of whether it was wise to attempt a crossing, in the middle of nowhere with no telephone service or prospects for roadside assistance, were purely rhetorical ...the girls were going dancing, period, and nothing that I could say could overcome their unwavering determination.
Finally, two hours later we miraculously reached our destination. A mini fairgrounds in the middle of nowhere with a soccer field as a parking lot and a giant open air structure which was simply a corrugated roof supported by large cement pillars. Carnival style food vendors lined the entrance side and inside a live Latin band played loud music over a modern sound system. Four dancing male singers across the front of the stage with drums, bass, percussion, trombone, and a keyboard player with out-of-date synth sounds. The giant, concrete slab dance floor (with a capacity of a couple thousand if packed in tight) was sparsely populated with couples. Later the girls would bemoan the declining popularity of traditional Spanish music, and scenes like this that were a throwback to another time.
My group of six pretty, sharply dressed young ladies of ages roughly 24 to 32, settled in the back, and an interesting assortment of guys, old and young, politely approached and led them onto the dance floor one by one and for one song at a time. While I usually am very comfortable in the dancehall, here I was a bit out of my element. I know little about the various styles of latin dance, and that way of moving to music doesn't come naturally to me, so I was content to linger at the back with the girls who weren't dancing and observe the scene.
Since we arrived late, we only caught the last 5 or 6 songs of the band, and the dancing part of the night had barely gotten started before coming to an abrupt end. While several of the male dancing partners made pitches about where we might go to continue the festivities (all of them far away), after having a quick bite to eat the determination among my posse to have fun suddenly turned into a resignation to get back to homebase and call it a night.
I guess it's worth mentioning that among the hundreds present at the fairgrounds, I was the only "gringo." As we walked to the car, a guy with a giant straw hat looked at me, and the girls, and yelled "Hey Gringo" with a big smile. I smiled back.
Since we were uncertain about the best way to return to Cobano (retracing our steps was not a great option due to the road quality and the rivers), we joined a small caravan headed south on a 3rd route through "unnamed roads". The first river crossing, which required an abrupt swing to the right before an arcing return to the left to catch the other bank, was fairly uneventful. However, on the second crossing, the sedan bottomed out and lodged itself in the rocky riverbed.
.......
Interesting reflection: My second priority on this trip (aside from my writing) has been to ramp up my Satipatthana meditation, both in terms of practice and learning. This was essential in getting me in the right state to write (since my main character is a dedicated practitioner) and was aided by my isolation here in Costa Rica. Anyway, something Yuttadhammo Bhikku said in one of his instructional videos resonated with me ...that is (paraphrased) to embrace "sati" means to change one's way of thinking and abandon the habit of forming opinions. Makes sense. However, I find myself firmly entrenched in the world of opinions. My (former) career was defined by forming opinions. In the last couple of weeks, I have done a fair amount of reflection about whether I need to think about aggressively weening myself off of this tendency (after the Super Bowl, of course ;)
So it was interesting to observe the reaction of the caravan members (including several more vehicles of guys and girls) once it was determined that the car was stuck. Everybody had an opinion, and eight or so people were talking at once trying to demonstrate the superiority of their opinion. The only problem was, nobody had spent any time to properly diagnose the problem ...that is except Sophia who handled the sight of her rental car stuck in the river with surprising grace. We dug out all the rocks under the bumper and still found the car firmly stuck. Then we went around and used the flashlight of her phone to look into the wheel well, and found that the actual frame of the car was dug into the riverbed. Clearly, we were going to have to lift the frame off of the ground to have any chance at getting out. The girls (in their Saturday night clothes and bare feet) and I tried to lift the front of the car off the ground, but they weren't quite strong enough to budge it, and it remained stuck.
Throughout the process, a series of (drunk?) guys manifested the "get out of the way. this is some guy shit" vibe and then got in the car and revved the engine and spun the front wheels (FWD) digging the car in slightly deeper with every subsequent effort, while also turning the steering wheel so the wheels were at least at a 45 degree angle from straight. (In their defense, I guess none of the guys had ever gotten their car stuck in the snow before).
Kathia returned from her mission with a thick rope to tie to a big pickup truck. This is clearly what we needed ...but some of the guys remained entrenched in the idea of driving the car out of the hole (still nobody else had looked extensively at the actual problem). Against our advice to straighten the wheel and leave it in neutral while the truck pulled the rear and we tried to lift the front end, the newest "driver" of the stuck car hit the gas with maximum ferocity, and thrashed the wheel around throwing rocks in all directions (while I yelled "NO! NO! NO!") and sending me backwards into the river, now completely soaked as opposed to only partially soaked.
For the nth time I told Sophia, "We need three big guys to lift the front." and she answered "I keep telling them, but they don't want to.," and I replied, "Well we are just going to sit here stuck until they decide that they want to."
About 10 minutes later, after another round of 4 or 5 people talking at once I shouted "STOP STOP everybody STOP TALKING", and calmly told them that the frame was stuck in the bottom and that no amount of force could help us if the two biggest guys didn't help me lift the frame off of the ground from the front (this was translated by Sophia). Finally, they decided to try this, and with great effort we lifted the car off the frame and rolled it out of the hole ... with Sophia in the driver's seat this time.
(The reason that I described that part of the story in detail is that it made a profound impression on me about the nature of opinions...given my reflections of late).
So with the car out of the river and back to the original shore, there was a unanimous consensus that it was probably unwise to try this a 2nd time, and so we chose the safer option of taking the best possible roads home ... unfortunately the backtracking and circuitous route meant a total of over 3 hours to travel less than 20 miles as the crow flies (and yes, I now have a heightened appreciation for decent roads and bridges)
On the car ride home, the girls apologized and laughed about what happens when you get caught up with "Seis loco chicas" although they added...at least you have an interesting story for your friends back home, and I told them that some day I would write down this story and call it "Seis Loco Chicas" and this was the running joke for the car ride home (which ended well after sunrise) ...the story of seis loco chicas.
At 7:30PM, I got a call from Kathia, actually a call to my landlord who then ran the phone over to my space. Was I ready? Her girlfriends and I were driving to a small town in the countryside for some Latin style dancing (as opposed to the reggaeton downtown). Despite my protests of working, and not wanting to make a long night of it, the decision was made. The girls were going dancing and I was coming. Period. I was reluctantly granted a half hour to tie up the loose ends in my output from that day, and then off we went.
I jumped on the back of Kathia's motorcyle and we drove over the rolling hills that connect Montezuma and Cobano. The road was mostly loose dirt that would turn into a cloud of dust with every passing car, and Kathia was concerned that her make-up job was turning into a dust mask.
When we arrived in Cobano, we picked up Kathia's car and her two friends and headed off to Coyote. Google maps has the directions as 39 kilometers and an hour and twenty minutes over "unnamed roads" which are uncharted by google. We drove in total darkness over badly washboarded roads. Kathia's small two wheel drive utility vehicle has seen a lot of wear and complained loudly and hesitated when we would climb hills. It sounded like a ball joint or something similar was ready to give out at any moment, but on we went until we reached a river that was running across the road and was obviously uncrossable, and we were forced to backtrack for the 30 minutes or so to Cobano to pick another road and start again.
In town, we met another carload of girls and together we embarked on a second attempt to cross the uncharted expanse. Again very bad, remote dirt roads. Not a car or a light of any form for very long stretches. We came to another river, sized up the prospects, and then drove over the optimal crossing path. Another river, another crossing. Several times I had serious doubts about whether we could actually get across, especially the 2nd vehicle which was a small sedan and lower to the ground than ours. However, any questions to me of whether it was wise to attempt a crossing, in the middle of nowhere with no telephone service or prospects for roadside assistance, were purely rhetorical ...the girls were going dancing, period, and nothing that I could say could overcome their unwavering determination.
Finally, two hours later we miraculously reached our destination. A mini fairgrounds in the middle of nowhere with a soccer field as a parking lot and a giant open air structure which was simply a corrugated roof supported by large cement pillars. Carnival style food vendors lined the entrance side and inside a live Latin band played loud music over a modern sound system. Four dancing male singers across the front of the stage with drums, bass, percussion, trombone, and a keyboard player with out-of-date synth sounds. The giant, concrete slab dance floor (with a capacity of a couple thousand if packed in tight) was sparsely populated with couples. Later the girls would bemoan the declining popularity of traditional Spanish music, and scenes like this that were a throwback to another time.
My group of six pretty, sharply dressed young ladies of ages roughly 24 to 32, settled in the back, and an interesting assortment of guys, old and young, politely approached and led them onto the dance floor one by one and for one song at a time. While I usually am very comfortable in the dancehall, here I was a bit out of my element. I know little about the various styles of latin dance, and that way of moving to music doesn't come naturally to me, so I was content to linger at the back with the girls who weren't dancing and observe the scene.
Since we arrived late, we only caught the last 5 or 6 songs of the band, and the dancing part of the night had barely gotten started before coming to an abrupt end. While several of the male dancing partners made pitches about where we might go to continue the festivities (all of them far away), after having a quick bite to eat the determination among my posse to have fun suddenly turned into a resignation to get back to homebase and call it a night.
I guess it's worth mentioning that among the hundreds present at the fairgrounds, I was the only "gringo." As we walked to the car, a guy with a giant straw hat looked at me, and the girls, and yelled "Hey Gringo" with a big smile. I smiled back.
Since we were uncertain about the best way to return to Cobano (retracing our steps was not a great option due to the road quality and the rivers), we joined a small caravan headed south on a 3rd route through "unnamed roads". The first river crossing, which required an abrupt swing to the right before an arcing return to the left to catch the other bank, was fairly uneventful. However, on the second crossing, the sedan bottomed out and lodged itself in the rocky riverbed.
.......
Interesting reflection: My second priority on this trip (aside from my writing) has been to ramp up my Satipatthana meditation, both in terms of practice and learning. This was essential in getting me in the right state to write (since my main character is a dedicated practitioner) and was aided by my isolation here in Costa Rica. Anyway, something Yuttadhammo Bhikku said in one of his instructional videos resonated with me ...that is (paraphrased) to embrace "sati" means to change one's way of thinking and abandon the habit of forming opinions. Makes sense. However, I find myself firmly entrenched in the world of opinions. My (former) career was defined by forming opinions. In the last couple of weeks, I have done a fair amount of reflection about whether I need to think about aggressively weening myself off of this tendency (after the Super Bowl, of course ;)
So it was interesting to observe the reaction of the caravan members (including several more vehicles of guys and girls) once it was determined that the car was stuck. Everybody had an opinion, and eight or so people were talking at once trying to demonstrate the superiority of their opinion. The only problem was, nobody had spent any time to properly diagnose the problem ...that is except Sophia who handled the sight of her rental car stuck in the river with surprising grace. We dug out all the rocks under the bumper and still found the car firmly stuck. Then we went around and used the flashlight of her phone to look into the wheel well, and found that the actual frame of the car was dug into the riverbed. Clearly, we were going to have to lift the frame off of the ground to have any chance at getting out. The girls (in their Saturday night clothes and bare feet) and I tried to lift the front of the car off the ground, but they weren't quite strong enough to budge it, and it remained stuck.
Throughout the process, a series of (drunk?) guys manifested the "get out of the way. this is some guy shit" vibe and then got in the car and revved the engine and spun the front wheels (FWD) digging the car in slightly deeper with every subsequent effort, while also turning the steering wheel so the wheels were at least at a 45 degree angle from straight. (In their defense, I guess none of the guys had ever gotten their car stuck in the snow before).
Kathia returned from her mission with a thick rope to tie to a big pickup truck. This is clearly what we needed ...but some of the guys remained entrenched in the idea of driving the car out of the hole (still nobody else had looked extensively at the actual problem). Against our advice to straighten the wheel and leave it in neutral while the truck pulled the rear and we tried to lift the front end, the newest "driver" of the stuck car hit the gas with maximum ferocity, and thrashed the wheel around throwing rocks in all directions (while I yelled "NO! NO! NO!") and sending me backwards into the river, now completely soaked as opposed to only partially soaked.
For the nth time I told Sophia, "We need three big guys to lift the front." and she answered "I keep telling them, but they don't want to.," and I replied, "Well we are just going to sit here stuck until they decide that they want to."
About 10 minutes later, after another round of 4 or 5 people talking at once I shouted "STOP STOP everybody STOP TALKING", and calmly told them that the frame was stuck in the bottom and that no amount of force could help us if the two biggest guys didn't help me lift the frame off of the ground from the front (this was translated by Sophia). Finally, they decided to try this, and with great effort we lifted the car off the frame and rolled it out of the hole ... with Sophia in the driver's seat this time.
(The reason that I described that part of the story in detail is that it made a profound impression on me about the nature of opinions...given my reflections of late).
So with the car out of the river and back to the original shore, there was a unanimous consensus that it was probably unwise to try this a 2nd time, and so we chose the safer option of taking the best possible roads home ... unfortunately the backtracking and circuitous route meant a total of over 3 hours to travel less than 20 miles as the crow flies (and yes, I now have a heightened appreciation for decent roads and bridges)
On the car ride home, the girls apologized and laughed about what happens when you get caught up with "Seis loco chicas" although they added...at least you have an interesting story for your friends back home, and I told them that some day I would write down this story and call it "Seis Loco Chicas" and this was the running joke for the car ride home (which ended well after sunrise) ...the story of seis loco chicas.
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