Some storylines from a CRAZY! Kentucky Derby ...

Sometimes crazy things happen in the Kentucky Derby. Almost always the catalyst is a horse, or group of horses that go off in the early going at a suicidal pace. My housemate picked the early leader SUMMER IS TOMORROW based on the name and when I saw the unreasonably fast half-mile time as the horses neared the end of the backstretch I told her "Your horse is going to finish last."
I'd hinted at the possibility of a suicidal pace in my Kentucky Derby preview: "With plenty of early speed candidates in this field, the pace could get hot and there is the potential that the race "falls apart" and sets up for horses coming from way back." What does this "falling apart" look like? We see below the five quarter mile splits from a more "normally" run derby (2020 MEDINA SPIRIT) with the quarter mile times getting gradually slower, and the splits from Saturday's unusual Derby:
MEDINA SPIRIT - 2020 (23:09) (23:61) (24:51) (24:77) (25:01)
RICH STRIKE - 2022 (21:78) (23:58) (24:98) (26:62) (25:65)
Note the difference this year between the first half mile and the last half mile: 45:36 versus 52:27. If we use the standard 1/5 of a second = 1 length then that means that the last half was run almost 35 lengths slower than the first half! This is CRAZY!
There are two consequences of such a torrid pace at the Derby distance 1) The obvious one, anyone close to that pace is going to be seriously compromised in the latter stages of the race and 2) When horses start tiring badly (starting on the far turn in most cases, after the first 3 splits) seams open up briefly in the wall of horses in front of the closers and a jockey who hits one of these perfectly (usually near the rail) has a chance to pass a lot of horses in a flash, and get beyond the traffic quickly.
The Ride:
I'm sure that many of you have seen the aerial view of the last half mile or so of the race .... amazing!:
https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status/1523104042427334660?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1523104042427334660%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fawfulannouncing.com%2Fnbc%2Fnbc-kentucky-derby-rich-strike.html
A friend asked if this was the best ride that I've ever seen. No. I'd describe as a combination of extremely good fortune combined with excellent execution. Here Leon makes two important (but fairly easy) split second decisions 1) Generally, the most effective strategy for a jockey navigating through a big pack of tiring horses is to identify a (relatively) fast moving horse in front of him and follow in his wake. Towards the end of the turn, Jockey Leon identifies #18 Tawny Port (purple silks, yellow and black saddle cloth) and follows him through at the rail and later 2) With the leader on the turn, MESSIER, tiring badly on the rail in the stretch, there is little choice but to swing outside of him to get around. The execution of getting through that small hole is first rate work by both horse and rider, but made easier by the fact that RICH STRIKE was running so much faster than the tiring horses.
The Loser: Steven Asmussen (from the racing family of Asmussens) is the winning-est trainer in the history of horse racing (I had the coincidental good fortune of seeing him break the all-time record during my visit to Saratoga last summer). 9,731 wins ... but yet never a Kentucky Derby. This year he brought the race favorite EPICENTER who had done everything right in the prep races leading up to the Derby and in training over the Churchill Downs surface in the days leading up to the race. EPICENTER got what appeared to be a dream trip following in the wake of SUMMER IS TOMORROW in a comfortable place while saving ground near the rail. When he found a crack in the leading group and kicked for hime in the lead it seemed like he was home free. The final validation for Team Asmussen...but it was not to be on this unusual day.
The Winners: It can't be overstated how unusual this result was. 80-1 doesn't begin to cover it. Several acedemic papers have shown that horses over 50-1 as a group are massively overbet relative to their actual chances. I'd be curious to see how the AI from the biggest betting groups valued Rich Strike's chances. 1 in 400? More ridiculous still are the component parts:
RICH STRIKE's only win was against $30,000 maiden claimers. This is close to the bottom of the barrel at major tracks like Churchill Downs. In this race trainer Eric Reed and the Red Tr Racing Group paid the $30,000 claiming price and came home with RICH STRIKE. It's worth noting that the horse was taken from Calumet Farm which holds the record for having bred the most winners in the Kentucky Derby ... yet Calumet's last winner in The Derby was way back in 1991. Truth be told it can't be said that this claim cost them their first Derby in three decades as they NEVER would have even considered entering this horse given the perceived unlikelyhood of his winning.
Trainer ERIC REED is based at Balterra Park, a third rate track in Cincinnati. RICH STRIKE earned $1,800,000 for his win on Saturday. Over 40 years of training, Reed's second highest earner made $401,896 over her whole career. He's only had 3 additional horses that have made over $200,000 career. To put that in perspective, all of the winners of the five races that preceded the Derby on Saturday at Churchill earned at least $300,000 for that one race.
Jockey SONNY LEON also races at Belterra Park. Prior to the Derby he had NEVER won a graded stakes race. There are almost 400 graded stakes races run in the USA every year. He had won none of them. Ever.

TAIBA offers betting value in the 2022 Kentucky Derby

In short, making money as a horse bettor requires identifying candidates whose chances are undervalued by the betting public. In the 2022 Derby, I feel that TAIBA meets that criteria. Over the course of my betting career, "expert" handicappers have been fond of making rules which are form fit to prior runnings of the Derby to eliminate potential contenders. Foremost among these rules is the logical assumption that a horse needs the appropriate experience to handle the 20 horse field and the demanding 1 & 1/4 mile distance. But one of the best horse racing bets that I made in the last decade bucked that very rule. Until JUSTIFY ran away with the 2018 Derby and went on to become the only undefeated Triple Crown winner in history, no horse over the prior century had won the Derby without racing as a 2 year old and no horse had won the Derby with only 3 starts. But in this case JUSTIFY was simply the fastest horse in the race and his tactical early speed kept him out of the congestion of the main pack and he won easily. The profile of TAIBA is very similar to that of JUSTIFY: - An unusual combination of early tactical speed and (all indications suggest) the stamina to get 10f given his finish in the Santa Anita Derby and the fact that he is sired by 10f champion GUN RUNNER and out of a dam that closed her career with to 9f stakes victories. - Until very recently, TAIBA was trained by Bob Baffert (the most successful Derby trainer of all-time and the trainer of JUSTIFY) - Both shared the services of jockey "Money Mike" Smith. While Smith's skills are in decline, he is still one of the very best in riding horses with tactical speed in Classic distance races. - He comes into the race having run the fastest Kentucky Derby prep of all the the contenders. The "knocks" on TAIBA are legit: - Only 2 prep races prior to the Derby. Not only has no horse ever won the Derby with only 2 preps, I can't remember it ever having been attempted. - The workout pattern between the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby is light for a horse who is trying to train his way into shape (as opposed to race his way into shape) to run 10f - The horse has never been in any kind of traffic, and jockey Mike Smith will almost certainly find himself behind horses at some point breaking from the #12 post in a race with a fair amount of early speed. Also, TAIBA is NOT JUSTIFY ... his prep race was not as fast and both the draw and the race shape set up more favorably for JUSTIFY. But here's the thing, while JUSTIFY was a big favorite by race time (I got him as the 9/2 second choice in England in the week before the race), TAIBA is a ridiculously high 12-1 in the morning line. Simply put, if he runs back to his last race he will be very tough to beat. As such, his chances seem much better than 1 in 13 to me. I'll be betting him all the way down to 8-1. It's worth noting that the community of public "experts" is not supporting TAIBA choosing instead to cite the "rules" and take the glass half empty view. Excellent! This makes for good betting value. I'll bet extra if the track is "sloppy" as his gallop on a wet track at Churchill earlier this week impressed astute DRF clocker Mike Welsch and his pedigree suggests that the wet going will suit him well ................ Others of note: While both are nice horses, I am against the two favorites in the race based on price. ZANDON earned a solid figure when winning the Bluegrass with a late charge and has been training extremely well in the mornings leading up to the race. Supporters will suggest that this is a horse coming into his own at exactly the right time. My knocks are that a) Jockey Flevien Prat gave him one of the best rides in recent memory in the Bluegrass, timing his kick perfectly and finding his way into two small holes as soon as they opened up. Anything less than perfect might have meant defeat for ZANDON. Also, the horse's form was only so-so leading up to the Bluegrass. As a result, I'll let this one beat me as a favorite ... although I won't be surprised if he wins. Similarly, EPICENTER has had everything go his way recently with perfect trips in his last two races. I'm not enamored with anything that he has beat beyond ZANDON (who wasn't in top form when they met and at a less favorable distance). Also, trainer Steven Asmussen has won more races than any trainer in history ... but never the Derby. Another one I wouldn't be surprised to see win but that I will let beat me at a short price. Otherwise ... If this were a time trial, I would consider using CHARGE IT This one shares the trait of many of the offspring of champion sire TAPIT in that he has a very high "cruising speed" but the Florida Derby tape suggests that he takes a while to accelerate when asked and this is not good in a crowded field of 20 where he doesn't figure to be part of the early pace. Maybe better suited to the Belmont? Given the recent worldwide success of horses based in Japan, I think it is only a matter of time before they breakthrough with a big win in a US classic race. By all accounts, CROWN PRIDE has been training as well as any horse on the grounds. I wanted to use this one, but watching the tape of his 2022 races, I have a hard time getting aboard the bandwagon that he might be "the one" ...but he bears watching for sure. With plenty of early speed candidates in this field, the pace could get hot and there is the potential that the race "falls apart" and sets up for horses coming from way back. MO DONEGAL ran a solid figure last time and has Irad Ortiz ... the perfect jockey to take up the Calvin Borel rail skimming style and come from way back to win. Add to this the winners of The Wood Memorial have performed poorly over the last 3 decades. Another one I wanted to use ... I just don't think he is quite good enough, and seems like an underlay at a price similar to TAIBA I'll kick myself if this one wins, though. Good luck! "The Clock"