Some storylines from a CRAZY! Kentucky Derby ...

Sometimes crazy things happen in the Kentucky Derby. Almost always the catalyst is a horse, or group of horses that go off in the early going at a suicidal pace. My housemate picked the early leader SUMMER IS TOMORROW based on the name and when I saw the unreasonably fast half-mile time as the horses neared the end of the backstretch I told her "Your horse is going to finish last."
I'd hinted at the possibility of a suicidal pace in my Kentucky Derby preview: "With plenty of early speed candidates in this field, the pace could get hot and there is the potential that the race "falls apart" and sets up for horses coming from way back." What does this "falling apart" look like? We see below the five quarter mile splits from a more "normally" run derby (2020 MEDINA SPIRIT) with the quarter mile times getting gradually slower, and the splits from Saturday's unusual Derby:
MEDINA SPIRIT - 2020 (23:09) (23:61) (24:51) (24:77) (25:01)
RICH STRIKE - 2022 (21:78) (23:58) (24:98) (26:62) (25:65)
Note the difference this year between the first half mile and the last half mile: 45:36 versus 52:27. If we use the standard 1/5 of a second = 1 length then that means that the last half was run almost 35 lengths slower than the first half! This is CRAZY!
There are two consequences of such a torrid pace at the Derby distance 1) The obvious one, anyone close to that pace is going to be seriously compromised in the latter stages of the race and 2) When horses start tiring badly (starting on the far turn in most cases, after the first 3 splits) seams open up briefly in the wall of horses in front of the closers and a jockey who hits one of these perfectly (usually near the rail) has a chance to pass a lot of horses in a flash, and get beyond the traffic quickly.
The Ride:
I'm sure that many of you have seen the aerial view of the last half mile or so of the race .... amazing!:
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A friend asked if this was the best ride that I've ever seen. No. I'd describe as a combination of extremely good fortune combined with excellent execution. Here Leon makes two important (but fairly easy) split second decisions 1) Generally, the most effective strategy for a jockey navigating through a big pack of tiring horses is to identify a (relatively) fast moving horse in front of him and follow in his wake. Towards the end of the turn, Jockey Leon identifies #18 Tawny Port (purple silks, yellow and black saddle cloth) and follows him through at the rail and later 2) With the leader on the turn, MESSIER, tiring badly on the rail in the stretch, there is little choice but to swing outside of him to get around. The execution of getting through that small hole is first rate work by both horse and rider, but made easier by the fact that RICH STRIKE was running so much faster than the tiring horses.
The Loser: Steven Asmussen (from the racing family of Asmussens) is the winning-est trainer in the history of horse racing (I had the coincidental good fortune of seeing him break the all-time record during my visit to Saratoga last summer). 9,731 wins ... but yet never a Kentucky Derby. This year he brought the race favorite EPICENTER who had done everything right in the prep races leading up to the Derby and in training over the Churchill Downs surface in the days leading up to the race. EPICENTER got what appeared to be a dream trip following in the wake of SUMMER IS TOMORROW in a comfortable place while saving ground near the rail. When he found a crack in the leading group and kicked for hime in the lead it seemed like he was home free. The final validation for Team Asmussen...but it was not to be on this unusual day.
The Winners: It can't be overstated how unusual this result was. 80-1 doesn't begin to cover it. Several acedemic papers have shown that horses over 50-1 as a group are massively overbet relative to their actual chances. I'd be curious to see how the AI from the biggest betting groups valued Rich Strike's chances. 1 in 400? More ridiculous still are the component parts:
RICH STRIKE's only win was against $30,000 maiden claimers. This is close to the bottom of the barrel at major tracks like Churchill Downs. In this race trainer Eric Reed and the Red Tr Racing Group paid the $30,000 claiming price and came home with RICH STRIKE. It's worth noting that the horse was taken from Calumet Farm which holds the record for having bred the most winners in the Kentucky Derby ... yet Calumet's last winner in The Derby was way back in 1991. Truth be told it can't be said that this claim cost them their first Derby in three decades as they NEVER would have even considered entering this horse given the perceived unlikelyhood of his winning.
Trainer ERIC REED is based at Balterra Park, a third rate track in Cincinnati. RICH STRIKE earned $1,800,000 for his win on Saturday. Over 40 years of training, Reed's second highest earner made $401,896 over her whole career. He's only had 3 additional horses that have made over $200,000 career. To put that in perspective, all of the winners of the five races that preceded the Derby on Saturday at Churchill earned at least $300,000 for that one race.
Jockey SONNY LEON also races at Belterra Park. Prior to the Derby he had NEVER won a graded stakes race. There are almost 400 graded stakes races run in the USA every year. He had won none of them. Ever.