Well, here we are again. Consider me among those who had left the Pats for dead in September (for me the final blow was losing promising LB Ja'Whaun Bentley for the year). At that point, I considered them too old, slow, and thin to compete for a championship. However, something miraculous transpired between then and now ...the Patriots suffered ZERO important injuries (in terms of losing guys to IR for playoffs). ZERO! This has to be the healthiest run of a veteran team in recent memory. It's as if the Gods of the Gridiron have conspired against all odds to get Bill and Brady a 6th ring and cement them as the greatest dynasty in the history of American sports.
Below are some of the correspondences to friends during the 2019 playoffs (for those who can't get enough Pats talk / analysis before this monumental game). Enjoy!
Quick take on Super Bowl match-up with The Rams on the day after the conference championships:
Offense:
1) Despite using personnel (3WR) that usually "spreads" the formation, the Rams often line up in a tight formation leaving a lot of room between the outside guy and sideline on both sides. All 11 players will frequently be bunched in only 40%-ish of the field. This leaves a lot of space on the perimeter for the Rams to isolate their playmakers in space, and this is the main innovation of their offense.
2) The 90s Broncos Zone running game. They will bunch the formation, then sometimes "stretch" you horizontally once the play starts while the RB will look for the "one cut" into the hole that opens as the stretching occurs ...often to a cut-back lane. Discipline in sliding over laterally but "staying in lanes / gaps" is crucial to defending this running style.
NOTE: In the Saints game, the Rams used a lot of "12" personnel (double TE) for the first time that I've seen, especially running with the FAT BACK (CJ Anderson) and mostly in the 2nd half.
Some things they like to do:
1) Run the aforementioned "stretch" play
2) Run a guy in motion and race him across towards the open space near the opposite sideline and then get him the ball there with lots of room to operate
3) Ditto with motion but jet sweep where the guy who takes it is in a footrace towards the empty space. (very similar to Pats here, but often with more space for runner)
4) Run lots of pick plays in the congestion created by the bunching, especially on the two receiver side (which often also has a TE). The bunch is more frequently on the right side.
5) Run crossers where the target ends up going through the defense and out the other side (since he is lined up in tight) and will catch the ball headed into space near sideline.
6) Run that "in and out" route that Edelman loves, and towards the space out near the sideline.
7) Give "sell-out" run action one way (complete with pulling linemen) and run Goff on a naked bootleg the other way having receiver(s) run into the empty space in front of him.
8) Run deep square-in ...maybe 15 yards.
A couple of things I would consider doing to defend them:
1) NEVER let Goff break contain to the right and roll into that empty space....their passing game is most dangerous when this happens. (Also prefer him not to escape to the left, but he seems slightly less effective rolling that way). This seems like something that Bill would make a high priority.
2) Jam Brandin Cooks when he lines up on the line of scrimmage. Similarly, I assume that Bill is all over this one as he has tons of experience and game tape from last year where Cooks got manhandled by aggressive press coverage while a Patriot. Note: I wouldn't be surprised if Rams make a plan to potentially counter this (if pressing is effective) by backing Cooks off the line and putting him in motion more than they usually do to prevent the press
MY KEYS TO THE GAME:
1) The Rams DTs, especially Aaron Donald versus Pats O-Line. He seems like the Pats worst defensive nightmare. The one consistent key to beating Brady over the years has been to "knock him off the spot" with a basic 4 man pass rush and prevent him from getting comfortable and properly striding into his throws. The Giants effectively collapsed the pocket in the middle in both Super Bowl wins as underdogs. This game could be a repeat of that as Donald is one of the best interior pass rushers in the history of the game. The interior of the Pats line (Thuney / Andrews / Mason) will be tested, for sure.
The good news in this is that I consider Shaq Mason to be one of the NFL's most underrated players and one of the top guards in the league (Pro Football Focus agrees with me and named him the All-Pro RG this year). Intuitively he seems well suited to deal with Donald's extreme power and low center of gravity. Thuney and Andrews have also had good years. This may be the place where this game is decided. I expect Donald to line up primarily in the gaps next to Thuney and avoid Shaq as much as possible.
2) Brady's ability to get into comfortable rhythm. See above point. If Brady can't set his feet and step through throws he is a different QB. His "pocket presence" and ability to sidestep interior rushers to find a safe zone figures to be a key to the passing game in this one. If Brady can play with the comfort that we saw against KC (the 2018 NFL sack leaders) the Pats figure to win ring #6.
3) Todd Gurley Clearly he hasn't been his best self after re-aggravating the knee injury. The explosiveness just hasn't been there in the play-offs and it seems to have messed with his confidence and concentration On his "A" game, he would be a big, big problem for the Patriots ...an athletic, dual threat pass catching back. Kareem Hunt killed the Pats in their two meetings. NFL afterthoughts Damien Williams and Jaylen Samuels both made significant contributions as 3rd stringers forced to take the lead role versus the Pats.
FAT BACK CJ Anderson has performed admirably in his stead, consistently picking up tough yards between the hash marks, but he is neither a huge pass catching threat nor does he have the speed to be dangerous on the perimeter or at the 2nd level. Against New Orleans, Anderson got the majority of touches (Gurley was almost exclusively a decoy in the last 3 quarters). I think a repeat of this would be very good for the Patriots chances. Rams fans will be hoping that the extra 2 weeks will help Gurley's knee to heal further and allow a return close to his top form. (Late addition: Maybe the huge move in the betting line suggest that the "smart money" thinks that Gurley will be a limited factor?)
4) Wade Phillips The last time that the Patriots failed to reach the Super Bowl, Phillips was the architect of the attacking defense that consistently got to, and rattled, Brady and held the Pats to only 18 points (and subsequently held Carolina to 10 in the Super Bowl). He is a worthy adversary for Brady and McDaniels. The good news for the Pats is that coach Scar has returned to lead the O-line and the personnel this time around is highly superior to that of the 2016 AFC championship. Cannon is back as is a much improved Shaq Mason. In addition, 2016 featured Vollmer who was a bit out of place at LT, a back-up LG in Josh Kline, and Bryan Stork who was beaten out at Center by David Andrews the next year. This group of Brown/Thuney/Andrews/Mason/Cannon seems like a huge improvement over the one from 3 years ago.
The main similarity between the Patriots and Rams:
The Pats and Rams have had the two healthiest O-Lines in the NFL this season (in terms of % plays by original starters) and as a result have arguably the best O-lines at present largely due to continuity
A commentary on Bill as GM:
Random thought on a factor that i've never heard mentioned ....would be interesting to do a quant study on this: In what personnel area do the Patriots excel year-after-year? Not the draft (although all other dynasties in SB era drafted exceptional core teams across the board). Rather, Bill's strength has been the lack of "dead cap" or contracts that count against the salary cap where the player is not contributing (often has left team entirely). How many big contracts can you think of that the Patriots have had to eat for poor performance or injury? Bill has a knack for not signing bad long term deals,
As of now Patriots 2019 "dead cap" for guys no longer with the team is less than $600k !! By contrast, the same # for the Bills in 2018 was well over $60 million. That bodes well for Pats chances at remaining competitive next year despite the aging of the core (although they'd better retain Flowers, he seems essential)
Also, the one year "prove it" deal under market in the NFL has to be the best value in sports in that you have both a healthy body and a cheap salary...and no chance to get stuck with "dead cap" for years to come. Bill has been the master of this. Would be interesting to see a list of these guys for Pats over the years, especially on defense. Revis is obviously the gold standard but there are lots of others like Chris Long who made solid contributions.
Some quick thoughts after watching Pats-Chiefs game film:
- Forgotten in the post game euphoria ... Brady missed a bunch of easy throws, and could have easily had 3 interceptions.
- The play call and execution on that first quarter interception by Reggie Ragland in the end zone was almost as bad as the Marshawn Lynch debacle. The Pats marched down the field twice by running the ball straight down KC's throat, and then on 3rd and goal inside the 1 yard line they run a pass into the teeth of the defense, and Brady throws into heavy coverage? If you are going to pass in that situation instead of run it again (or 2 more times including 4th down) then it has to be a total run sell with somebody like an unused tight end sneaking off uncovered. That INT completely changed the complexion of that game.
- I've come to the late season conclusion that the unsung hero on this team (and the AFC play-off MVP on defense) is Kyle Van Noy. He is what Hightower used to be. Made a ton of plays on Sunday. Flowers also shined (as usual)
- The O-line was insanely good. Brady did whatever he wanted to in addition to the first half run dominance. Shaq Mason is the best Patriots guard since John Hannah. If he blocks you then you stay blocked. He is also one of the very best at pulling and leading the play in space.
On the Eve of "The Last Stand" .... commentary prior to Divisional Round versus the Chargers:
Seems to me that, despite all the shortcomings of this team, there is a potential road to the Super Bowl now ....
Thinking back to the draft, it seemed fairly certain that Bill had decided "Brady is old and Gronk is old (the idea of Bill shopping him in off-season certainly makes more sense in retrospect ) and it's difficult to see this team winning by going up-and-down the field by passing almost exclusively,"
....so they draft a mauler OT (or probably OG) and an RB in the first round, they keep (don't cut...although that may be for dead cap reasons) their arguably overpaid run blocking TE Allen, and they give an extension to FB Develin. Potential Conclusion: When the chips are down this (last?) time around, maybe Bill (and Josh) are planning to use the run as their primary strategy ...and try to throw off play action and out of favorable down / distance scenarios?
It's interesting to look back at the run / pass breakdown of the offense from last 5 years:
SEASON PASS PLAY % & NFL RANK LAST 3 GAME PASS%
2014 Won SB Seattle (16th 59.59%) (61.76%)
2015 Lost Conf Denver (3rd 65.00%) (68.98%)
2016 Won SB Atlanta (27th 56.41%) (65.80%)
2017 Lost SB Philly (10th 59.78%) (68.08%)
2018 This Year (26th 55.45% (50.26% ...but these are regular season)
They went through the year in 2016-17 running a disproportionate amount of the time, but abandoned that in the playoffs and SB. In fact, in all of the last 3 years, they relied almost exclusively on the pass in the playoffs.
OK back to the point ...so while there is no predicting the outcome of an NFL season, especially given injuries, let's say that Bill felt pre-season that the the most likely outcome was exactly the one that has presented itself ...the Pats are going to need to run it to advance. Could the situation have possibly shaped up any better?
- Could one have expected the "d" to have played much better with basically the same personnel?
- Could one have hoped that the Pats would have incurred NO significant injuries to non rookies?
- Could one have hoped for better than a sub-freezing game against a So-Cal team that is racking up frequent flyer miles at an unprecedented rate for January?
- Could one have imagined in their wildest dream that the dominant AFC team would have one of the historically worst run "d's?"
So I guess on this basis ..the Pats are right where they wanted to be? Could it have worked out much better?
Anyway those are my (potentially delusional) pre-game thoughts / hopes. For THIS team to go to the SB ....that would be something indeed.
THANKS FOR THE INFO.
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