Here is my take on why the Patriots are poised to make a serious run at the NFL championship in 2014-15, and should be the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIX:
Summary: The Patriots went 12-4 in 2013 and advanced to the AFC Championship despite a plague of injuries to some of their best players. They begin the 2014 season with no major injuries to report to key contributors. Among those who return:
Vince Wolfork - Multiple all-pro selection. The linchpin of the Patriots run defense. Pats had a very difficult time preventing opposing teams from rushing up the middle after Wolfork went down
Jerod Mayo - The QB of the defense. Another all-pro. Super versatile, athletic linebacker who is perfect for the Belichik style of defense that places a premium on multi-skilled defenders
Rob Gronkowski - Yet another all-pro. Best all-around TE in football when healthy. The key to the offense (especially in the Red Zone) along with Brady.
Sebastian Vollmer - 2nd team all-pro in 2010. Key OL contributor
Shane Vareen - Missed a significant portion of 2013 season (although played in play-offs). When chips are down and Pats need to score, this is the guy they want on the field. On of top 50 / 50 (run / pass) type backs in league.
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FACT or FICTION
FICTION: Brady and the offense have carried the Patriots to play-off success and 3 Super Bowls. In the play-offs Brady has posted a solid, but not extraordinary, 87.5 passer rating ...ranking him slightly ahead of contemporaries Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Phillip Rivers. In the 3 Super Bowl wins, his lines are as follows:
2002 St Louis 16 (completions) - 27 (attempts) - 145 (yards) -1 (TD) - 0 (INTs)
2004 Carolina 32-48-354-3-1
2005 Philly 23-33-236-2-0
While these were solid efforts (and the TD-INT ratio of 6-1 is exceptional), they are not the stats of a guy who "carried" his team with the exception of the Carolina game which was one been his best performances ever in a big spot.
In addition, in the last 6 play-off losses (2 to Baltimore, 1 to NYJ, 2 Super Bowls versus NYG, and last year's AFC championship against Denver) the play of Brady and the offense has been mediocre in general, and in the two Baltimore games was sub-par. Brady was rattled by pressure that collapsed the pocket frequently and unable to improvise successfully under difficult conditions.
While the offense has delivered them to the door many times in the Belichick-Brady era, rarely has it put them over the top.
FACT: The performance of the Patriots defense was the key to 2 of the Patriots 3 Super Bowl wins.
In the 2005 Philly game, the Pats turned the Eagles over 4 times, had 4 sacks, and held the Eagles rushing attack to just 45 yards on 17 carries ...forcing McNabb into "must pass" mode and a bunch of turnovers.
In the 2002 St Louis game, the Patriots defense remarkably held one of the best offenses in NFL history, "the greatest show on turf", to a paltry 17 points ..(as compared to a low of 27 points over the prior 8 games), turned the Rams over 3 times, and scored on a "pick 6" by CB Ty Law.
The purpose of this brief history lesson was to demonstrate that in the years when the Patriots were winning Super Bowls, the defense was at least equally important in securing those victories.
THE 2014 PATRIOTS DEFENSE:
In the early 2000s, the Patriots revolutionized the way that teams thought about defense. Central to their success was employing athletic, multi-skilled players like Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi, who could serve in multiple roles (defending the run, rushing the passer, and dropping into coverage). While Bruschi had one of the all-time great NCAA college careers, he slipped to #86 in the NFL draft because he didn't have a clear-cut position in the NFL, but Belichick saw a play-maker who did multiple things well and managed to employ his unique skill set at MLB where he became one of the greatest Patriots defenders. Vrable, similarly, didn't have a stand-out skill in an era that emphasized specialization and was signed from Pittsburgh to a fairly modest free agent contract. Unfortunately, as the Patriots experienced huge success, and Belichick defensive disciples like Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini took over head coaching spots, the NFL started placing a premium on "Bellichick-type" players. As a result, it became far more difficult to find multi-skilled players at LB.
The 2009-2013 Patriots defense bore little resemblance to the successful units of the Super Bowl years. The Patriots lost Vrable to free agency and Bruschi to retirement. The linebacking core went from athletic and versatile to slow and one dimensional. MLBs like an aging Junior Seau and Brandon Spikes were on the extreme slow end of the spectrum for NFL linebackers. With exception of Mayo, Belichick had no "jack-of-all trades" players to keep teams off balance (from a lack of knowing what any of the LBs was going to do on a given play).
Finally, the other primary characteristic that was crucial for the Super Bowl teams was a "shutdown" cornerback. Both Ty Law and Asante Samuel were key players during those years in that role. As one of Belichick's primary defensive goals is to limit the production of the most important weapon on the opposing offense (which is generally a WR), the ability to assign one guy to that role frees up the rest of the defense to do interesting, and unpredictable, things by dictating to the offense as opposed to vice-versa. Also, worth noting that the Super Bowl winning teams featured especially strong secondaries, in general ...while recently this has been a primary weakness for the Patriots and the pass defense has been consistently among the bottom 10 as a result.
Why the 2014 Defense is much closer to the 2002-2005 Super Bowl winning units than the more recent mediocre (or worse) versions:
- For the first time since Samuel left for the Eagles in Free Agency (2008), the Patriots have a legitimate "shut down" corner. In his prime Revis was in a class by himself among NFL CBs, and now two seasons removed from ACL surgery, most expect him to return to the status of one of the elite cover-corners in the NFL. While Aqib Talib (the next closest thing to shut down CB since Samuel) did a solid job of covering slower WRs and athletic TEs (when healthy, that is), Talib was not a great match for the primary AFC receiving threats, many of whom have elite speed (like AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace etc.),
- The rest of the Pats secondary is also above average. First of all, the Pats have the most depth at CB in the NFL (which often becomes critical in December / January) with as many as 6 players that could start for a handful of NFL teams. Additionally, Devin McCourty has emerged as one of the best 2 or 3 free safeties in the NFL.
- For the first time since 2008, the Patriots once again have an extremely athletic, extremely versatile linebacking core. Mayo is joined by first round draft choice Donte Hightower, and physical freak Jamie Collins who came into his own after inheriting a starting role in December of 2013 (his rookie year). This unit can excel in coverage, and rushing the passer, and should hold its own in the running game. Finally, Belichick has the athletes to once again employ creative schemes that confuse opposing QBs.
- With first round draft pick Chandler Jones slowly emerging as a top-flight pass-rusher, Rob Ninkovitch providing steady, if unspectacular, production (8 sacks each of last 2 years), Wilfork and 1st round rookie Dominique Easley serving as solid interior pass rushing tandem, and a bunch of linebackers that can get to the QB, the pass rush (another big weakness in the last 6 years) should be significantly improved.
Summary: The Patriots have addressed their weakness in the secondary and pass defense and turned this area into a potential major strength. The 2014 defense looks like the best unit since the Super Bowl years and worthy of a top contender. IMHO they project as one of the best 5 defenses in the NFL this year.
After a down year in 2013, the Patriots offense should improve and be one of the top groups in the NFL in 2014:
Looking back to last year at this time:
- The key non-Brady player, Ron Gronkowski was still healing from two major surgeries (back, forearm) and never really got into the groove in 2013. While he underwent season ending knee surgery in January 2014, the Gronk looks and feels heathier than this time last year. Obviously he is still a major injury risk, but having him on the field alone could transform the offense. Example: In games that Gronkowski played last year, the Pats had a 69% red zone efficiency #, when not available that dropped to 43% ...a HUGE difference. 69% would have ranked 3rd over-all in NFL last year whereas 43% would have ranked DEAD LAST ....no team is going to win a Super Bowl ranked last in this category.
- Aaron Hernandez was sent to jail and all of a sudden both of the TEs who were the cornerstones of one of the NFL's best offenses were gone. On short notice, the Pats were unable to find a suitable "move" TE to fill the Hernandez role. However, with the trade for Tampa's Tim Wright, the Patriots pick-up a very solid candidate to replace some of the production of Hernandez and serve as another big target for Brady to find in the Red Zone.
- After losing Welker, Lloyd, Woodhead, Gronkowski, and Hernandez the Patriots opened the 2013 campaign without all 5 of their top pass catchers from the previous season. Add that they required rookie WRs Aaron Dobson and Kembrell Tompkins to take on major roles in the offense as rookies (never a good idea in the NFL ..it usually requires at least one year for WRs to "get it") AND their main pass catching back (and the only viable replacement for Woodhead) Shane Vareen was on the IR. Clearly, all of this was a bit much for Brady and the passing game to overcome, and as a result they slipped from one of the top passing teams to middle-of-the-road.
But the situation looks much better in 2013 because:
- Gronk is healthy, at least temporarily and Wright should help at TE
- Dobson and Thompkins should improve with a year of experience
- All of the WRs from last year should be more in sync with Brady after a full year of experience together.
- Vareen is back
Some would suggest that there is concern in the offensive line after trading away pro bowl guard Logan Mankins, but others (including me) believe that while Mankins was still a decent NFL guard, age has slowed him a bit and as a result he was a liability in pass protection in 2013. Unquestionably, there are some questions at OL (especially who will play the guard spot vacated by Mankins) in the near-term, but the Patriots are confident that they have a deep and talented group. The potential line of (left to right) Solder, Vollmer, Wendell, Connolly, and Cannon puts their best 3 OL athletes (Solder, Vollmer, And Cannon) into the line-up at the same time, and should eventually overcome any of the short-term issues related to continuity
The Special Teams units (especially kicker Stephen Gostkowski) are also among the NFLs best.
Fearless prediction: The Patriots go 14-2 or 13-3 and win the #1 seed for AFC play-offs, knock off Andrew Luck and Indy in the conference semis, beat Manning and Denver in the AFC conference championship, and finish the job by defeating the Saints in the SB.
Anyone going to Vegas: While the present odds of 7-1 price the Patriots chances of winning the Super Bowl at one in eight (12.5%), I rate this as their best team since the 2002-2005 dynasty (with the possible exception of 2007-08) and figure those odds are more than fair.
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